Run date 2026-09-05 · week 1 · the Elo board, the next 7 days of games, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts.
One Elo scale across all of FBS; Top 4 / Median / Bottom 4 are each conference's ceiling, middle and floor next to its average.
| Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| Duquesne @ Air Force (FCS) | Air Force | 92% | 39.9–15.9 | 55.9 |
| East Carolina @ Alabama | Alabama | 85% | 33.8–17.4 | 51.2 |
| Maine @ App State (FCS) | App State | 92% | 40.2–17.2 | 57.5 |
| Northern Arizona @ Arizona (FCS) | Arizona | 99% | 49.3–8.3 | 57.6 |
| Morgan State @ Arizona State (FCS) | Arizona State | 98% | 47.2–9.6 | 56.8 |
| North Alabama @ Arkansas (FCS) | Arkansas | 97% | 47.1–14.5 | 61.6 |
| Bryant @ Army (FCS) | Army | 97% | 43.3–9.9 | 53.2 |
| Baylor vs. Auburn (N) | Auburn | 59% | 29.4–26.1 | 55.5 |
| Utah Tech @ BYU (FCS) | BYU | 99% | 50.8–6.6 | 57.4 |
| Tarleton State @ Bowling Green (FCS) | Bowling Green | 87% | 35.5–17.5 | 53.1 |
| UCLA @ California | California | 53% | 26.3–25.1 | 51.3 |
| The Citadel @ Charlotte (FCS) | Charlotte | 83% | 34.0–18.5 | 52.6 |
| Boston College @ Cincinnati | Cincinnati | 69% | 31.0–23.4 | 54.4 |
| Wyoming @ Colorado State | Colorado State | 53% | 22.8–21.7 | 44.5 |
| Tulane @ Duke | Duke | 65% | 31.0–25.2 | 56.1 |
| Florida Atlantic @ Florida | Florida | 87% | 36.8–18.8 | 55.6 |
| Tennessee State @ Georgia (FCS) | Georgia | 100% | 55.6–3.0 | 58.6 |
| Charleston Southern @ Georgia Southern (FCS) | Georgia Southern | 95% | 43.9–15.1 | 59.1 |
| UNLV @ Hawai'i | Hawai'i | 55% | 29.0–27.0 | 56.0 |
| Oregon State @ Houston | Houston | 91% | 35.9–14.1 | 50.1 |
| North Texas @ Indiana | Indiana | 93% | 43.1–18.4 | 61.5 |
| Northern Illinois @ Iowa | Iowa | 96% | 37.4–6.4 | 43.8 |
| Southeast Missouri State @ Iowa State (FCS) | Iowa State | 98% | 47.5–8.8 | 56.3 |
| Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville State (FCS) | Jacksonville State | 92% | 40.3–17.3 | 57.5 |
| Liberty @ James Madison | James Madison | 91% | 39.3–16.6 | 55.9 |
| Nicholls @ Kansas State (FCS) | Kansas State | 98% | 49.2–10.5 | 59.8 |
| Youngstown State @ Kentucky (FCS) | Kentucky | 98% | 44.4–8.9 | 53.3 |
| Clemson @ LSU | LSU | 61% | 27.2–22.7 | 49.9 |
| Lamar @ Louisiana (FCS) | Louisiana | 94% | 42.3–15.8 | 58.1 |
| Northwestern State @ Louisiana Tech (FCS) | Louisiana Tech | 95% | 41.3–13.7 | 55.0 |
| Hampton @ Maryland (FCS) | Maryland | 96% | 42.1–12.8 | 54.9 |
| Arkansas State @ Memphis | Memphis | 69% | 32.3–24.7 | 56.9 |
| Western Michigan @ Michigan | Michigan | 81% | 30.1–16.4 | 46.6 |
| Murray State @ Middle Tennessee (FCS) | Middle Tennessee | 83% | 35.1–20.3 | 55.4 |
| UL Monroe @ Mississippi State | Mississippi State | 86% | 35.9–18.8 | 54.6 |
| Towson @ Navy (FCS) | Navy | 98% | 47.2–9.9 | 57.2 |
| Ohio @ Nebraska | Nebraska | 64% | 26.8–21.3 | 48.1 |
| Western Kentucky @ Nevada | Western Kentucky | 57% | 26.5–23.6 | 50.1 |
| Central Michigan @ New Mexico | New Mexico | 76% | 30.7–19.8 | 50.5 |
| Mercyhurst @ New Mexico State (FCS) | New Mexico State | 82% | 34.8–20.0 | 54.8 |
| Fordham @ North Dakota State (FCS) | North Dakota State | 92% | 39.9–16.6 | 56.6 |
| South Dakota State @ Northwestern (FCS) | Northwestern | 98% | 43.7–7.6 | 51.3 |
| Ball State @ Ohio State | Ohio State | 98% | 43.6–5.0 | 48.6 |
| Norfolk State @ Old Dominion (FCS) | Old Dominion | 98% | 47.0–10.5 | 57.5 |
| Boise State @ Oregon | Oregon | 90% | 37.7–16.5 | 54.3 |
| Marshall @ Penn State | Penn State | 89% | 36.7–16.9 | 53.6 |
| Miami (OH) @ Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | 80% | 31.6–18.4 | 50.0 |
| Houston Christian @ Rice (FCS) | Rice | 90% | 37.6–16.2 | 53.9 |
| Mississippi Valley State @ Sacramento State (FCS) | Sacramento State | 86% | 36.6–19.2 | 55.8 |
| Portland State @ San Diego State (FCS) | San Diego State | 96% | 41.7–11.2 | 52.9 |
| SE Louisiana @ South Alabama (FCS) | South Alabama | 93% | 42.0–17.5 | 59.5 |
| Kent State @ South Carolina | South Carolina | 91% | 36.6–14.8 | 51.4 |
| Florida International @ South Florida | South Florida | 80% | 37.6–24.3 | 62.0 |
| Alcorn State @ Southern Miss (FCS) | Southern Miss | 91% | 39.3–17.0 | 56.3 |
| New Hampshire @ Syracuse (FCS) | Syracuse | 93% | 40.9–15.5 | 56.4 |
| Rhode Island @ Temple (FCS) | Temple | 92% | 40.0–16.8 | 56.8 |
| Furman @ Tennessee (FCS) | Tennessee | 99% | 52.9–11.2 | 64.1 |
| Texas State @ Texas | Texas | 90% | 39.4–18.8 | 58.3 |
| Missouri State @ Texas A&M | Texas A&M | 95% | 41.2–12.7 | 54.0 |
| Abilene Christian @ Texas Tech (FCS) | Texas Tech | 99% | 54.4–7.2 | 61.6 |
| Sam Houston @ Troy | Troy | 85% | 33.1–16.5 | 49.6 |
| Oklahoma State @ Tulsa | Oklahoma State | 52% | 27.8–26.9 | 54.8 |
| Lafayette @ UConn (FCS) | UConn | 97% | 46.7–14.3 | 61.0 |
| UT Rio Grande Valley @ UTSA (FCS) | UTSA | 97% | 48.7–16.2 | 64.9 |
| Idaho State @ Utah State (FCS) | Utah State | 94% | 44.1–17.9 | 61.9 |
| Austin Peay @ Vanderbilt (FCS) | Vanderbilt | 99% | 53.8–7.3 | 61.1 |
| VMI @ Virginia Tech (FCS) | Virginia Tech | 94% | 40.8–13.8 | 54.7 |
| Coastal Carolina @ West Virginia | West Virginia | 71% | 32.8–24.2 | 56.9 |
Win probability straight from Elo (home edge applied except at neutral sites, marked N). Expected score is the Elo-implied margin carved out of a matchup-specific total (each program's recent points for/against, shrunk to the FBS mean); read it as an average, not a literal final. FCS opponents are one pooled rating, so those lines are the least informative on the slate.
ΔLL is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast on the same games (p = 0.632, coin flip at neutral sites), ± one standard error; negative = beating the baseline. Hit rate is inflated by FBS-vs-FCS games, which is why the FBS-only row exists.
| Conference | Favorites |
|---|
| ACC | Miami 48%, SMU 17%, Virginia 11%, Louisville 8% |
| American Athletic | Navy 27%, Tulane 17%, North Texas 13%, East Carolina 12% |
| Big 12 | Texas Tech 33%, Utah 21%, BYU 15%, Kansas State 5% |
| Big Ten | Indiana 43%, Oregon 17%, Ohio State 14%, Penn State 8% |
| Conference USA | Kennesaw State 23%, Western Kentucky 23%, Jacksonville State 12%, Florida International 12% |
| Mid-American | Ohio 34%, Western Michigan 27%, Toledo 16%, Miami (OH) 8% |
| Mountain West | New Mexico 29%, Hawai'i 21%, UNLV 20%, Air Force 9% |
| Pac-12 | Boise State 25%, Texas State 21%, Washington State 17%, San Diego State 16% |
| SEC | Georgia 24%, Ole Miss 18%, Texas 17%, Alabama 12% |
| Sun Belt | James Madison 39%, Old Dominion 24%, Arkansas State 6%, Louisiana 5% |
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (10,000 replays of the 861 remaining regular-season games with live in-sim Elo). Bowl = 6+ wins; CCG = reaching the conference championship game (top two by conference record, ties random); the title game is simulated at a neutral site. The 12-team playoff is a committee pick and is not modeled.
Betting-blind FBS Elo (conference-aware season regression, pooled FCS opponent, margin-weighted updates) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/cfb