How the 2026-09-03 predictions scored against actual results
Cumulative Δlog-loss vs always-pick-home: -0.0160 ± 0.0081 per game over 264 games (paired; negative = beating the baseline - currently ahead).
| Yesterday | Correct | Log-loss |
|---|---|---|
| model | 5/9 | 0.682 |
| always-pick-home | 6/9 | 0.673 |
Daily detail: 56% hit rate · Brier 0.244 · avg margin error 2.9 · avg total-runs error 2.4. Running: 151/264 (57.2%) · cumulative log-loss 0.676 · cumulative Brier 0.241
| Game | Pick | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ | Red Sox @ Orioles | Red Sox (55%) | 4.9–4.1 | 5–6 (home first) |
| ❌ | Brewers @ Cubs | Brewers (54%) | 5.2–4.5 | 2–1 (home first) |
| ❌ | Blue Jays @ Guardians | Guardians (54%) | 4.3–4.2 | 3–6 (home first) |
| ✅ | White Sox @ Astros | Astros (55%) | 4.6–4.3 | 6–2 (home first) |
| ✅ | Marlins @ Royals | Royals (52%) | 4.6–4.5 | 7–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Cardinals @ Dodgers | Dodgers (64%) | 5.2–4 | 3–2 (home first) |
| ✅ | Giants @ Pirates | Pirates (60%) | 4.9–4.1 | 5–2 (home first) |
| ❌ | Athletics @ Mariners | Mariners (64%) | 5.4–4.2 | 4–7 (home first) |
| ❌ | Rays @ Rangers | Rays (54%) | 4.7–4.1 | 6–0 (home first) |
The headline is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast (p=0.534) on the same games, ± one standard error; daily hit rate is noisy and demoted on purpose. Reference points: 0.693 is a coin flip; the model's walk-forward backtest runs 0.680 (research/SP-BACKTEST.md).
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb