MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-09-04
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 63%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 83-57 | +45 | 1522 | 94.2 | 63% | 100% |
| Yankees | 80-60 | +115 | 1545 | 92.8 | 36% | 100% |
| Red Sox | 76-65 | +78 | 1539 | 87.8 | 1% | 99% |
| Orioles | 69-72 | -21 | 1496 | 78.9 | <1% | 10% |
| Blue Jays | 70-71 | -41 | 1507 | 81.2 | <1% | 40% |
AL Central — White Sox 80%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 73-67 | +39 | 1498 | 84.6 | 80% | 88% |
| Guardians | 70-70 | -11 | 1498 | 81.3 | 18% | 41% |
| Twins | 67-73 | -38 | 1478 | 77.5 | 2% | 4% |
| Tigers | 64-75 | +47 | 1502 | 76.2 | 1% | 2% |
| Royals | 63-78 | -85 | 1482 | 72.8 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 72%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 72-69 | -38 | 1500 | 82.5 | 72% | 77% |
| Rangers | 70-71 | -42 | 1487 | 80.1 | 23% | 31% |
| Mariners | 66-75 | -68 | 1488 | 77.8 | 6% | 8% |
| Athletics | 55-86 | -191 | 1432 | 63.7 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 53-87 | -80 | 1444 | 62.4 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 81%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 83-58 | +113 | 1532 | 94.3 | 81% | 100% |
| Phillies | 79-61 | +36 | 1538 | 90.8 | 19% | 99% |
| Marlins | 71-70 | +14 | 1498 | 80.7 | <1% | 4% |
| Mets | 63-77 | -50 | 1491 | 73.5 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 67-75 | +14 | 1476 | 76.0 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 99%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 87-54 | +171 | 1569 | 99.4 | 99% | 100% |
| Cubs | 79-62 | +133 | 1544 | 90.3 | 1% | 98% |
| Reds | 67-73 | -108 | 1472 | 75.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 69-72 | +29 | 1498 | 79.4 | <1% | 1% |
| Cardinals | 70-71 | -9 | 1494 | 80.6 | <1% | 2% |
NL West — Dodgers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 83-57 | +147 | 1550 | 96.1 | 100% | 100% |
| Padres | 73-67 | +10 | 1521 | 85.0 | <1% | 51% |
| Diamondbacks | 74-67 | -1 | 1507 | 84.8 | <1% | 46% |
| Rockies | 54-86 | -140 | 1418 | 62.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 59-83 | -68 | 1473 | 68.4 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (63%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (80%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb