College Football Update
Run date 2026-10-05 · week 6 · the Elo board, the next 7 days of games, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts.
🏆 Elo top 25
| # | Team | Conf | W-L | Pt diff | Elo |
|---|
| 1 | Indiana | Big Ten | 5-0 | +167 | 1953 |
| 2 | Georgia | SEC | 5-0 | +190 | 1913 |
| 3 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 4-1 | +148 | 1900 |
| 4 | Alabama | SEC | 5-0 | +144 | 1866 |
| 5 | Miami | ACC | 5-0 | +199 | 1866 |
| 6 | Texas | SEC | 4-0 | +80 | 1858 |
| 7 | Notre Dame | Ind. | 5-0 | +147 | 1838 |
| 8 | Oregon | Big Ten | 3-1 | +97 | 1818 |
| 9 | Utah | Big 12 | 4-0 | +132 | 1790 |
| 10 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 5-0 | +93 | 1782 |
| 11 | Ole Miss | SEC | 3-1 | +19 | 1772 |
| 12 | BYU | Big 12 | 4-0 | +92 | 1762 |
| 13 | LSU | SEC | 4-1 | +142 | 1730 |
| 14 | Iowa | Big Ten | 4-1 | +82 | 1725 |
| 15 | Missouri | SEC | 4-1 | +88 | 1712 |
| 16 | Tennessee | SEC | 4-1 | +108 | 1711 |
| 17 | USC | Big Ten | 5-1 | +71 | 1707 |
| 18 | Duke | ACC | 4-0 | +101 | 1705 |
| 19 | James Madison | Sun Belt | 5-0 | +158 | 1703 |
| 20 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 3-2 | +2 | 1686 |
| 21 | Arizona | Big 12 | 4-1 | +79 | 1682 |
| 22 | Oklahoma | SEC | 2-2 | +24 | 1677 |
| 23 | Texas A&M | SEC | 3-2 | +66 | 1669 |
| 24 | Michigan | Big Ten | 3-2 | +36 | 1668 |
| 25 | SMU | ACC | 4-1 | +58 | 1665 |
Conferences by average Elo
| # | Conference | Teams | Avg | Top 4 | Median | Bottom 4 | In top 25 | Best team |
|---|
| 1 | SEC | 16 | 1689 | 1852 | 1682 | 1540 | 10 | Georgia (1913) |
| 2 | Big Ten | 18 | 1632 | 1849 | 1640 | 1406 | 6 | Indiana (1953) |
| 3 | FBS Independents | 2 | 1628 | — | 1628 | — | 1 | Notre Dame (1838) |
| 4 | Big 12 | 16 | 1576 | 1754 | 1562 | 1424 | 4 | Utah (1790) |
| 5 | ACC | 17 | 1541 | 1715 | 1530 | 1379 | 3 | Miami (1866) |
| 6 | Pac-12 | 8 | 1410 | 1506 | 1373 | 1314 | 0 | Boise State (1615) |
| 7 | American Athletic | 14 | 1406 | 1526 | 1452 | 1240 | 0 | UTSA (1537) |
| 8 | Sun Belt | 14 | 1360 | 1486 | 1364 | 1228 | 1 | James Madison (1703) |
| 9 | Mountain West | 10 | 1303 | 1448 | 1275 | 1171 | 0 | New Mexico (1506) |
| 10 | Mid-American | 13 | 1276 | 1434 | 1240 | 1143 | 0 | Toledo (1485) |
| 11 | Conference USA | 10 | 1269 | 1344 | 1263 | 1197 | 0 | Liberty (1414) |
One Elo scale across all of FBS; Top 4 / Median / Bottom 4 are each conference's ceiling, middle and floor next to its average.
📅 Games this week
2026-10-06 · 1 games
| Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| Southern Miss @ Troy | Troy | 74% | 29.8–20.8 | 50.6 |
2026-10-07 · 2 games
| Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| New Mexico State @ Florida International | Florida International | 73% | 30.1–22.0 | 52.1 |
| Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State | Jacksonville State | 57% | 26.7–24.6 | 51.3 |
2026-10-08 · 4 games
| Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| South Alabama @ Arkansas State | Arkansas State | 53% | 29.3–27.5 | 56.8 |
| Sam Houston @ Liberty | Liberty | 87% | 35.0–17.5 | 52.5 |
| South Florida @ UTSA | South Florida | 52% | 27.8–32.0 | 59.9 |
| Missouri State @ Western Kentucky | Western Kentucky | 57% | 28.4–26.3 | 54.8 |
2026-10-09 · 5 games
| Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| Iowa State @ BYU | BYU | 81% | 31.9–18.9 | 50.8 |
| Florida State @ Louisville | Louisville | 76% | 30.8–23.4 | 54.3 |
| Wyoming @ San José State | San José State | 66% | 25.0–19.7 | 44.7 |
| Washington State @ Utah State | Utah State | 66% | 26.1–25.6 | 51.7 |
| Iowa @ Washington | Washington | 56% | 22.0–23.6 | 45.6 |
2026-10-10 · 46 games
| Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| Eastern Michigan @ Akron | Eastern Michigan | 53% | 27.3–23.1 | 50.5 |
| Georgia @ Alabama | Alabama | 60% | 26.8–26.6 | 53.4 |
| Old Dominion @ App State | Old Dominion | 51% | 25.4–28.5 | 54.0 |
| Hawai'i @ Arizona State | Arizona State | 84% | 34.2–18.2 | 52.4 |
| Tennessee @ Arkansas | Tennessee | 65% | 34.9–24.0 | 58.9 |
| Tulane @ Army | Army | 56% | 23.8–24.0 | 47.8 |
| Sacramento State @ Bowling Green | Bowling Green | 51% | 27.4–20.0 | 47.4 |
| Virginia Tech @ California | Virginia Tech | 70% | 29.9–23.6 | 53.6 |
| Rice @ East Carolina | East Carolina | 85% | 34.2–17.8 | 52.0 |
| South Carolina @ Florida | Florida | 72% | 32.4–22.2 | 54.6 |
| Boise State @ Fresno State | Boise State | 62% | 24.7–24.2 | 49.0 |
| James Madison @ Georgia Southern | James Madison | 79% | 36.0–20.7 | 56.7 |
| Duke @ Georgia Tech | Duke | 72% | 33.8–22.8 | 56.6 |
| Houston @ Kansas State | Kansas State | 58% | 28.4–26.2 | 54.6 |
| LSU @ Kentucky | LSU | 63% | 27.9–24.5 | 52.4 |
| Louisiana @ Louisiana Tech | Louisiana | 59% | 26.6–26.5 | 53.0 |
| Coastal Carolina @ Marshall | Marshall | 79% | 35.1–21.3 | 56.3 |
| Miami (OH) @ Massachusetts | Massachusetts | 52% | 22.3–27.4 | 49.7 |
| UAB @ Memphis | Memphis | 76% | 35.7–23.9 | 59.7 |
| Illinois @ Michigan State | Illinois | 57% | 26.7–23.3 | 49.9 |
| Texas A&M @ Missouri | Missouri | 62% | 28.0–22.6 | 50.6 |
| Wake Forest @ NC State | Wake Forest | 60% | 28.1–28.9 | 56.9 |
| Tulsa @ Navy | Navy | 81% | 32.2–21.3 | 53.5 |
| Indiana @ Nebraska | Indiana | 68% | 32.5–18.7 | 51.3 |
| Charlotte @ North Texas | North Texas | 93% | 45.9–19.2 | 65.1 |
| Air Force @ Northern Illinois | Air Force | 76% | 28.7–19.3 | 48.1 |
| Ball State @ Northwestern | Northwestern | 96% | 40.5–8.3 | 48.8 |
| Stanford @ Notre Dame | Notre Dame | 97% | 41.2–15.5 | 56.7 |
| Central Michigan @ Ohio | Ohio | 75% | 28.0–19.6 | 47.7 |
| Maryland @ Ohio State | Ohio State | 96% | 41.5–10.1 | 51.6 |
| Texas vs. Oklahoma (N) | Texas | 50% | 28.4–18.4 | 46.9 |
| UCF @ Oklahoma State | Oklahoma State | 57% | 25.9–26.6 | 52.5 |
| UCLA @ Oregon | Oregon | 73% | 34.9–21.8 | 56.7 |
| San Diego State @ Oregon State | Oregon State | 61% | 25.9–24.2 | 50.1 |
| USC @ Penn State | Penn State | 59% | 26.6–27.8 | 54.5 |
| North Carolina @ Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | 82% | 33.2–19.4 | 52.6 |
| Minnesota @ Purdue | Minnesota | 60% | 30.0–21.1 | 51.1 |
| UConn @ Temple | Temple | 58% | 28.3–29.7 | 58.0 |
| Buffalo @ Toledo | Toledo | 93% | 34.5–17.5 | 52.0 |
| North Dakota State @ UNLV | UNLV | 59% | 28.8–22.8 | 51.6 |
| Nevada @ UTEP | Nevada | 70% | 26.9–24.8 | 51.7 |
| Kansas @ Utah | Utah | 94% | 38.4–16.7 | 55.1 |
| Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt | 53% | 27.9–29.8 | 57.7 |
| Syracuse @ Virginia | Virginia | 81% | 33.1–20.3 | 53.4 |
| Arizona @ West Virginia | Arizona | 75% | 32.9–23.0 | 55.9 |
| Kent State @ Western Michigan | Western Michigan | 85% | 32.1–17.1 | 49.2 |
Win probability straight from Elo (home edge applied except at neutral sites, marked N). Expected score is the Elo-implied margin carved out of a matchup-specific total (each program's recent points for/against, shrunk to the FBS mean); read it as an average, not a literal final. FCS opponents are one pooled rating, so those lines are the least informative on the slate.
📈 Model performance
Rolling tracker
| Window | Correct | Accuracy | Log loss | ΔLL vs always-home |
|---|
| Last 7 days | 42/59 | 71.2% | 0.5157 | -0.1815 ± 0.0605 |
| Last 30 days | 296/363 | 81.5% | 0.3913 | -0.2094 ± 0.0224 |
| Season to date | 305/374 | 81.5% | 0.3936 | -0.2058 ± 0.0228 |
| Season, FBS vs. FBS only | 195/258 | 75.6% | 0.4941 | -0.1558 ± 0.0289 |
ΔLL is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast on the same games (p = 0.632, coin flip at neutral sites), ± one standard error; negative = beating the baseline. Hit rate is inflated by FBS-vs-FCS games, which is why the FBS-only row exists.
Past week: 42/59 picks correct
| Date | Game | Pick | Final (home first) | Log loss |
|---|
| ✅ | 2026-10-01 | Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State | New Mexico State (58%) | 34–13 | 0.55 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-01 | North Texas @ Tulsa | North Texas (69%) | 44–45 | 0.37 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-02 | Liberty @ Delaware | Liberty (65%) | 14–30 | 0.43 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-02 | Penn State @ Northwestern | Penn State (63%) | 34–13 | 1.00 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-02 | Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech | Pittsburgh (60%) | 33–35 | 0.52 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-03 | Navy @ Air Force | Navy (53%) | 14–9 | 0.76 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Cincinnati @ Arizona | Arizona (66%) | 34–7 | 0.42 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-03 | Baylor @ Arizona State | Arizona State (61%) | 19–55 | 0.94 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Toledo @ Ball State | Toledo (90%) | 24–39 | 0.11 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Utah State @ Boise State | Boise State (84%) | 37–18 | 0.18 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Western Michigan @ Buffalo | Western Michigan (69%) | 17–20 | 0.37 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Akron @ Central Michigan | Central Michigan (71%) | 41–17 | 0.34 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Memphis @ Charlotte | Memphis (88%) | 8–59 | 0.12 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Miami @ Clemson | Miami (82%) | 13–41 | 0.20 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina | Georgia Southern (60%) | 24–31 | 0.52 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Texas Tech @ Colorado | Texas Tech (87%) | 7–29 | 0.14 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-03 | Oregon State @ Colorado State | Colorado State (51%) | 26–56 | 0.72 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Texas Southern @ Florida Atlantic | Florida Atlantic (95%) | 66–10 | 0.06 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-03 | Virginia @ Florida State | Virginia (61%) | 38–7 | 0.95 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Vanderbilt @ Georgia | Georgia (72%) | 38–14 | 0.33 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-03 | Old Dominion @ Georgia State | Old Dominion (57%) | 42–10 | 0.84 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-03 | San José State @ Hawai'i | Hawai'i (60%) | 16–20 | 0.93 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | UCF @ Houston | Houston (74%) | 27–17 | 0.30 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-03 | Purdue @ Illinois | Illinois (83%) | 17–24 | 1.76 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Ohio State @ Iowa | Ohio State (74%) | 14–31 | 0.30 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | West Virginia @ Iowa State | Iowa State (74%) | 45–42 | 0.30 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Marshall @ James Madison | James Madison (86%) | 45–17 | 0.15 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Middle Tennessee @ Kansas | Kansas (75%) | 55–0 | 0.28 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Ohio @ Kent State | Ohio (79%) | 10–13 | 0.24 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | McNeese @ LSU | LSU (99%) | 63–14 | 0.01 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Arkansas State @ Louisiana | Louisiana (72%) | 23–20 | 0.33 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-03 | Army @ Louisiana Tech | Army (59%) | 31–29 | 0.90 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-03 | Eastern Michigan @ Massachusetts | Massachusetts (62%) | 14–38 | 0.97 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-03 | Bowling Green @ Miami (OH) | Miami (OH) (77%) | 20–24 | 1.46 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-03 | Michigan @ Minnesota | Michigan (73%) | 20–14 | 1.32 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Alabama @ Mississippi State | Alabama (61%) | 23–56 | 0.50 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Florida @ Missouri | Missouri (56%) | 45–17 | 0.59 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-03 | Louisville @ NC State | Louisville (66%) | 31–28 | 1.08 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Maryland @ Nebraska | Nebraska (83%) | 48–23 | 0.18 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | UTEP @ New Mexico | New Mexico (95%) | 61–7 | 0.05 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Notre Dame @ North Carolina | Notre Dame (92%) | 26–37 | 0.08 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Wyoming @ North Dakota State | North Dakota State (75%) | 28–0 | 0.29 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | UTSA @ Rice | UTSA (72%) | 14–16 | 0.32 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Indiana @ Rutgers | Indiana (89%) | 15–47 | 0.12 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Boston College @ SMU | SMU (86%) | 25–16 | 0.16 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-03 | Texas State @ San Diego State | Texas State (58%) | 31–29 | 0.86 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | UL Monroe @ South Alabama | South Alabama (84%) | 52–35 | 0.18 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-03 | Kentucky @ South Carolina | South Carolina (51%) | 34–35 | 0.71 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-03 | Temple @ South Florida | South Florida (88%) | 13–17 | 2.09 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | BYU @ TCU | BYU (67%) | 10–17 | 0.40 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Auburn @ Tennessee | Tennessee (66%) | 24–14 | 0.42 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Arkansas @ Texas A&M | Texas A&M (78%) | 34–7 | 0.24 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Samford @ UAB | UAB (92%) | 33–14 | 0.09 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-03 | Syracuse @ UConn | UConn (65%) | 41–42 | 1.04 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | California @ UNLV | UNLV (76%) | 39–31 | 0.28 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Washington @ USC | USC (52%) | 25–21 | 0.66 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Stanford @ Wake Forest | Wake Forest (80%) | 57–3 | 0.23 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Fresno State @ Washington State | Fresno State (64%) | 6–26 | 0.45 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-03 | Michigan State @ Wisconsin | Wisconsin (75%) | 31–3 | 0.29 |
🔮 Season forecasts
Projected wins — top 25
| # | Team | Conf | W-L | Proj W-L | Bowl | Undefeated | CCG | Conf title |
|---|
| 1 | James Madison | Sun Belt | 5-0 | 11.2-0.8 | 100% | 43% | 89% | 72% |
| 2 | Indiana | Big Ten | 5-0 | 10.8-1.2 | 100% | 28% | 67% | 46% |
| 3 | Miami | ACC | 5-0 | 10.8-1.2 | 100% | 24% | 87% | 64% |
| 4 | Notre Dame | Ind. | 5-0 | 10.6-1.4 | 100% | 19% | — | — |
| 5 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 5-0 | 10.6-1.4 | 100% | 23% | 64% | 34% |
| 6 | Georgia | SEC | 5-0 | 10.5-1.5 | 100% | 19% | 66% | 39% |
| 7 | Utah | Big 12 | 4-0 | 10.2-1.8 | 100% | 14% | 49% | 27% |
| 8 | Alabama | SEC | 5-0 | 10.1-1.9 | 100% | 12% | 51% | 26% |
| 9 | Texas | SEC | 4-0 | 9.9-2.1 | 100% | 11% | 47% | 22% |
| 10 | BYU | Big 12 | 4-0 | 9.7-2.3 | 100% | 7% | 49% | 25% |
| 11 | North Dakota State | MWC | 5-0 | 9.6-2.4 | 100% | 5% | 56% | 26% |
| 12 | Pittsburgh | ACC | 5-0 | 9.4-2.6 | 100% | 3% | 25% | 7% |
| 13 | Duke | ACC | 4-0 | 9.3-2.7 | 100% | 4% | 26% | 11% |
| 14 | Toledo | MAC | 4-1 | 9.2-2.8 | 100% | <1% | 53% | 32% |
| 15 | Liberty | C-USA | 4-1 | 9.2-2.8 | 100% | <1% | 67% | 40% |
| 16 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 4-1 | 9.1-2.9 | 100% | <1% | 44% | 25% |
| 17 | New Mexico | MWC | 4-1 | 9.1-2.9 | 99% | <1% | 57% | 33% |
| 18 | Oregon | Big Ten | 3-1 | 8.9-3.1 | 99% | <1% | 37% | 16% |
| 19 | SMU | ACC | 4-1 | 8.8-3.2 | 100% | <1% | 30% | 10% |
| 20 | Louisiana | Sun Belt | 4-1 | 8.7-3.3 | 99% | <1% | 37% | 9% |
| 21 | Iowa | Big Ten | 4-1 | 8.6-3.4 | 98% | <1% | 9% | 3% |
| 22 | UCLA | Big Ten | 4-0 | 8.6-3.4 | 99% | 1% | 11% | 3% |
| 23 | Boise State | Pac-12 | 4-1 | 8.6-2.4 | 99% | <1% | 76% | 49% |
| 24 | UTSA | American | 4-1 | 8.5-3.5 | 98% | <1% | 37% | 20% |
| 25 | Wake Forest | ACC | 4-1 | 8.3-3.7 | 99% | <1% | 9% | 3% |
Conference title races
| Conference | Favorites |
|---|
| ACC | Miami 64%, Duke 11%, SMU 10%, Pittsburgh 7% |
| American Athletic | North Texas 20%, UTSA 20%, Tulane 16%, East Carolina 14% |
| Big 12 | Texas Tech 34%, Utah 27%, BYU 25%, Baylor 4% |
| Big Ten | Indiana 46%, Ohio State 25%, Oregon 16%, Iowa 3% |
| Conference USA | Liberty 40%, Jacksonville State 25%, Florida International 11%, Kennesaw State 7% |
| Mid-American | Toledo 32%, Ohio 26%, Western Michigan 24%, Central Michigan 8% |
| Mountain West | New Mexico 33%, UNLV 30%, North Dakota State 26%, Air Force 5% |
| Pac-12 | Boise State 49%, Fresno State 31%, Texas State 7%, San Diego State 7% |
| SEC | Georgia 39%, Alabama 26%, Texas 22%, Ole Miss 3% |
| Sun Belt | James Madison 72%, Louisiana 9%, Louisiana Tech 4%, South Alabama 3% |
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (10,000 replays of the 498 remaining regular-season games with live in-sim Elo). Bowl = 6+ wins; CCG = reaching the conference championship game (top two by conference record, ties random); the title game is simulated at a neutral site. The 12-team playoff is a committee pick and is not modeled.
Betting-blind FBS Elo (conference-aware season regression, pooled FCS opponent, margin-weighted updates) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/cfb