College Football Update

Run date 2026-10-21 · week 8 · the Elo board, the next 7 days of games, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts.

🏆 Elo top 25

#	Team	Conf	W-L	Pt diff	Elo
1	Ohio State	Big Ten	6-1	+181	1941
2	Indiana	Big Ten	6-1	+166	1925
3	Georgia	SEC	6-1	+190	1893
4	Miami	ACC	6-0	+207	1871
5	Ole Miss	SEC	5-1	+82	1864
6	Notre Dame	Ind.	6-1	+194	1816
7	BYU	Big 12	6-0	+110	1809
8	Utah	Big 12	6-0	+152	1802
9	Oregon	Big Ten	4-2	+98	1798
10	Texas Tech	Big 12	6-0	+121	1796
11	Tennessee	SEC	6-1	+131	1786
12	Alabama	SEC	5-2	+125	1783
13	Texas	SEC	4-2	+74	1781
14	Iowa	Big Ten	5-1	+99	1771
15	LSU	SEC	5-2	+172	1750
16	USC	Big Ten	6-1	+79	1743
17	James Madison	Sun Belt	7-0	+188	1720
18	Missouri	SEC	5-2	+81	1714
19	Arizona	Big 12	5-1	+100	1708
20	Houston	Big 12	6-1	+128	1696
21	Wake Forest	ACC	6-1	+126	1692
22	UCLA	Big Ten	6-0	+116	1692
23	SMU	ACC	5-1	+68	1685
24	Michigan	Big Ten	4-2	+39	1683
25	Kentucky	SEC	6-1	+48	1683

Conferences by average Elo

#	Conference	Teams	Avg	Top 4	Median	Bottom 4	In top 25	Best team
1	SEC	16	1689	1832	1672	1563	8	Georgia (1893)
2	FBS Independents	2	1638	—	1638	—	1	Notre Dame (1816)
3	Big Ten	18	1632	1859	1636	1411	7	Ohio State (1941)
4	Big 12	16	1579	1779	1559	1420	5	BYU (1809)
5	ACC	17	1541	1724	1518	1388	3	Miami (1871)
6	Pac-12	8	1410	1520	1403	1300	0	Boise State (1650)
7	American Athletic	14	1404	1546	1438	1223	0	UTSA (1580)
8	Sun Belt	14	1360	1506	1357	1212	1	James Madison (1720)
9	Mountain West	10	1301	1465	1285	1146	0	New Mexico (1525)
10	Mid-American	13	1274	1446	1267	1119	0	Western Michigan (1500)
11	Conference USA	10	1269	1358	1268	1180	0	Liberty (1429)

One Elo scale across all of FBS; Top 4 / Median / Bottom 4 are each conference's ceiling, middle and floor next to its average.

📅 Games this week

2026-10-21 · 1 games

Matchup (home in bold)	Pick	Win prob	Exp. score (winner first)	Exp. total
New Mexico State @ Sam Houston	New Mexico State	56%	25.6–23.6	49.2

2026-10-22 · 3 games

Matchup (home in bold)	Pick	Win prob	Exp. score (winner first)	Exp. total
James Madison @ App State	James Madison	86%	37.3–19.0	56.3
Liberty @ Kennesaw State	Liberty	73%	29.2–21.8	51.0
East Carolina @ Memphis	Memphis	75%	29.7–25.1	54.8

2026-10-23 · 5 games

Matchup (home in bold)	Pick	Win prob	Exp. score (winner first)	Exp. total
NC State @ Stanford	NC State	61%	28.8–26.9	55.7
Army @ Tulsa	Army	63%	30.4–21.9	52.3
Massachusetts @ UConn	UConn	80%	38.0–17.8	55.8
Duke @ Virginia	Duke	58%	27.7–24.4	52.2
Air Force @ Wyoming	Air Force	72%	25.2–19.7	45.0

2026-10-24 · 44 games

Matchup (home in bold)	Pick	Win prob	Exp. score (winner first)	Exp. total
Texas A&M @ Alabama	Alabama	78%	30.9–19.6	50.6
Iowa State @ Arizona	Arizona	81%	31.4–20.4	51.8
Kansas State @ Arizona State	Kansas State	62%	28.9–27.4	56.3
Georgia State @ Arkansas State	Arkansas State	54%	29.5–27.5	57.0
LSU @ Auburn	LSU	67%	27.5–22.6	50.1
Sacramento State @ Ball State	Ball State	65%	29.0–21.7	50.7
Bowling Green @ Buffalo	Buffalo	69%	28.9–19.0	47.9
Miami (OH) @ Central Michigan	Central Michigan	59%	22.9–22.9	45.9
Texas Tech @ Cincinnati	Texas Tech	70%	34.7–21.6	56.2
Virginia Tech @ Clemson	Clemson	71%	28.6–21.9	50.5
San Diego State @ Colorado State	San Diego State	54%	30.5–24.7	55.3
Rice @ Florida Atlantic	Florida Atlantic	73%	35.0–21.7	56.7
Boston College @ Georgia Tech	Georgia Tech	62%	29.0–24.3	53.3
Oregon @ Illinois	Oregon	73%	33.0–21.8	54.7
Baylor @ Kansas	Kansas	52%	26.0–30.6	56.6
Akron @ Kent State	Kent State	50%	28.1–21.3	49.4
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky	Kentucky	74%	32.0–22.4	54.4
Old Dominion @ Louisiana Tech	Louisiana Tech	65%	28.3–21.4	49.7
Pittsburgh @ Miami	Miami	93%	37.9–16.0	53.9
Indiana @ Michigan	Indiana	66%	28.5–17.9	46.4
Iowa @ Minnesota	Iowa	70%	27.4–17.6	45.0
Oklahoma @ Mississippi State	Oklahoma	59%	26.5–25.1	51.7
North Texas @ Navy	Navy	51%	30.1–32.5	62.6
San José State @ Nevada	Nevada	56%	24.2–24.5	48.7
North Dakota State @ New Mexico	New Mexico	69%	28.2–19.9	48.1
Syracuse @ North Carolina	North Carolina	82%	33.1–19.3	52.5
Hawai'i @ Northern Illinois	Hawai'i	59%	25.8–20.9	46.7
Rutgers @ Northwestern	Northwestern	85%	34.0–18.5	52.5
Eastern Michigan @ Ohio	Ohio	81%	32.5–17.3	49.8
Colorado @ Oklahoma State	Oklahoma State	68%	30.8–22.5	53.3
California @ SMU	SMU	87%	36.8–16.9	53.7
Tennessee @ South Carolina	Tennessee	57%	31.0–23.0	54.0
Louisiana @ Southern Miss	Louisiana	73%	33.8–20.7	54.6
West Virginia @ TCU	TCU	74%	33.7–22.6	56.3
Ole Miss @ Texas	Texas	53%	26.0–27.7	53.7
Utah State @ Texas State	Texas State	80%	36.5–24.9	61.4
Western Michigan @ Toledo	Toledo	61%	23.7–23.7	47.5
UL Monroe @ Troy	Troy	85%	34.5–16.7	51.2
UTSA @ Tulane	UTSA	56%	27.2–28.2	55.4
BYU @ UCF	BYU	81%	34.4–16.5	50.9
Michigan State @ UCLA	UCLA	86%	34.2–15.2	49.3
Houston @ Utah	Utah	73%	31.6–22.8	54.4
Boise State @ Washington State	Boise State	86%	33.8–18.3	52.2
USC @ Wisconsin	USC	51%	27.8–21.2	49.0

2026-10-27 · 2 games

Matchup (home in bold)	Pick	Win prob	Exp. score (winner first)	Exp. total
Sam Houston @ Missouri State	Missouri State	61%	29.9–22.6	52.4
Delaware @ Western Kentucky	Western Kentucky	62%	29.6–25.5	55.0

Win probability straight from Elo (home edge applied except at neutral sites, marked N). Expected score is the Elo-implied margin carved out of a matchup-specific total (each program's recent points for/against, shrunk to the FBS mean); read it as an average, not a literal final. FCS opponents are one pooled rating, so those lines are the least informative on the slate.

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

Window	Correct	Accuracy	Log loss	ΔLL vs always-home
Last 7 days	41/63	65.1%	0.6403	-0.0503 ± 0.0624
Last 30 days	173/253	68.4%	0.5560	-0.1304 ± 0.0288
Season to date	383/497	77.1%	0.4510	-0.1718 ± 0.0203
Season, FBS vs. FBS only	270/378	71.4%	0.5405	-0.1252 ± 0.0241

ΔLL is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast on the same games (p = 0.632, coin flip at neutral sites), ± one standard error; negative = beating the baseline. Hit rate is inflated by FBS-vs-FCS games, which is why the FBS-only row exists.

Past week: 41/63 picks correct

	Date	Game	Pick	Final (home first)	Log loss
❌	2026-10-14	Kennesaw State @ Missouri State	Kennesaw State (65%)	24–21	1.05
✅	2026-10-14	Western Kentucky @ Sam Houston	Western Kentucky (54%)	3–16	0.61
❌	2026-10-15	Georgia Southern @ Old Dominion	Old Dominion (58%)	15–23	0.86
✅	2026-10-15	Colorado State @ Texas State	Texas State (83%)	66–27	0.18
❌	2026-10-15	East Carolina @ UAB	East Carolina (59%)	30–17	0.90
✅	2026-10-16	App State @ Coastal Carolina	App State (52%)	32–35	0.66
✅	2026-10-16	Washington @ Purdue	Washington (54%)	26–38	0.61
❌	2026-10-16	Memphis @ Tulane	Memphis (70%)	31–17	1.21
✅	2026-10-17	UNLV @ Air Force	Air Force (55%)	41–31	0.60
✅	2026-10-17	Florida Atlantic @ Army	Army (72%)	56–24	0.33
❌	2026-10-17	Notre Dame @ BYU	Notre Dame (67%)	28–24	1.12
❌	2026-10-17	TCU @ Baylor	Baylor (62%)	6–17	0.97
❌	2026-10-17	Pittsburgh @ Boston College	Pittsburgh (72%)	27–21	1.28
❌	2026-10-17	Ball State @ Bowling Green	Bowling Green (67%)	31–32	1.09
✅	2026-10-17	Massachusetts @ Buffalo	Buffalo (59%)	25–18	0.54
✅	2026-10-17	Wake Forest @ California	Wake Forest (81%)	7–41	0.21
✅	2026-10-17	Western Michigan @ Central Michigan	Western Michigan (56%)	14–21	0.57
✅	2026-10-17	Charleston Southern @ Clemson	Clemson (98%)	37–0	0.02
✅	2026-10-17	Utah @ Colorado	Utah (87%)	24–27	0.14
❌	2026-10-17	North Carolina @ Duke	Duke (77%)	20–24	1.46
✅	2026-10-17	Toledo @ Eastern Michigan	Toledo (72%)	14–34	0.32
❌	2026-10-17	Auburn @ Georgia	Georgia (90%)	24–27	2.30
✅	2026-10-17	New Mexico @ Hawai'i	New Mexico (77%)	10–21	0.26
✅	2026-10-17	Oklahoma State @ Houston	Houston (79%)	35–32	0.23
❌	2026-10-17	Ohio State @ Indiana	Indiana (57%)	15–19	0.85
✅	2026-10-17	Georgia State @ James Madison	James Madison (88%)	49–22	0.13
✅	2026-10-17	Kansas @ Kansas State	Kansas State (67%)	35–24	0.40
✅	2026-10-17	Mississippi State @ LSU	LSU (71%)	31–0	0.34
✅	2026-10-17	Troy @ Louisiana	Louisiana (68%)	33–6	0.39
❌	2026-10-17	Rutgers @ Maryland	Maryland (58%)	30–37	0.86
✅	2026-10-17	Florida State @ Miami	Miami (93%)	43–35	0.07
✅	2026-10-17	Akron @ Miami (OH)	Miami (OH) (73%)	34–14	0.31
✅	2026-10-17	Penn State @ Michigan	Michigan (70%)	21–18	0.35
✅	2026-10-17	Northwestern @ Michigan State	Northwestern (73%)	21–24	0.32
✅	2026-10-17	Nevada @ North Dakota State	North Dakota State (80%)	31–17	0.22
❌	2026-10-17	Kentucky @ Oklahoma	Oklahoma (68%)	13–21	1.13
✅	2026-10-17	Missouri @ Ole Miss	Ole Miss (60%)	31–3	0.50
✅	2026-10-17	Nebraska @ Oregon	Oregon (61%)	17–14	0.50
✅	2026-10-17	Washington State @ Oregon State	Oregon State (82%)	48–30	0.19
❌	2026-10-17	Tulsa @ Rice	Rice (51%)	17–38	0.72
✅	2026-10-17	Virginia @ SMU	SMU (73%)	23–13	0.31
✅	2026-10-17	Ohio @ Sacramento State	Ohio (80%)	7–48	0.22
❌	2026-10-17	Fresno State @ San Diego State	Fresno State (71%)	26–23	1.23
✅	2026-10-17	Kent State @ South Florida	South Florida (92%)	29–2	0.09
✅	2026-10-17	Arkansas State @ Southern Miss	Arkansas State (54%)	13–23	0.62
✅	2026-10-17	Elon @ Stanford	Stanford (95%)	34–7	0.05
✅	2026-10-17	Louisville @ Syracuse	Louisville (78%)	26–34	0.25
❌	2026-10-17	Charlotte @ Temple	Temple (83%)	31–38	1.79
❌	2026-10-17	Alabama @ Tennessee	Alabama (70%)	26–10	1.21
❌	2026-10-17	Florida @ Texas	Texas (84%)	24–27	1.81
✅	2026-10-17	The Citadel @ Texas A&M	Texas A&M (99%)	41–0	0.01
✅	2026-10-17	Arizona State @ Texas Tech	Texas Tech (84%)	53–25	0.18
✅	2026-10-17	Wisconsin @ UCLA	UCLA (68%)	17–7	0.39
✅	2026-10-17	Louisiana Tech @ UL Monroe	Louisiana Tech (75%)	0–24	0.29
✅	2026-10-17	San José State @ UTEP	San José State (80%)	11–24	0.23
✅	2026-10-17	Navy @ UTSA	UTSA (65%)	38–34	0.43
❌	2026-10-17	Arkansas @ Vanderbilt	Vanderbilt (81%)	21–31	1.65
✅	2026-10-17	Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech (60%)	34–24	0.50
❌	2026-10-17	Cincinnati @ West Virginia	Cincinnati (66%)	45–42	1.07
✅	2026-10-17	Northern Illinois @ Wyoming	Wyoming (71%)	41–23	0.34
✅	2026-10-20	Missouri State @ Delaware	Delaware (65%)	61–38	0.43
❌	2026-10-20	Middle Tennessee @ Florida International	Florida International (82%)	23–26	1.69
❌	2026-10-20	South Alabama @ Marshall	South Alabama (51%)	20–13	0.72

🔮 Season forecasts

Projected wins — top 25

#	Team	Conf	W-L	Proj W-L	Bowl	Undefeated	CCG	Conf title
1	James Madison	Sun Belt	7-0	11.5-0.5	100%	56%	97%	78%
2	Miami	ACC	6-0	11.0-1.0	100%	30%	95%	69%
3	BYU	Big 12	6-0	10.8-1.2	100%	24%	64%	33%
4	Texas Tech	Big 12	6-0	10.8-1.2	100%	28%	65%	32%
5	Indiana	Big Ten	6-1	10.2-1.8	100%	<1%	42%	24%
6	Utah	Big 12	6-0	10.2-1.8	100%	14%	44%	24%
7	UCLA	Big Ten	6-0	10.1-1.9	100%	11%	41%	10%
8	Ohio State	Big Ten	6-1	10.0-2.0	100%	<1%	73%	49%
9	Notre Dame	Ind.	6-1	10.0-2.0	100%	<1%	—	—
10	Georgia	SEC	6-1	9.8-2.2	100%	<1%	57%	36%
11	Wake Forest	ACC	6-1	9.6-2.4	100%	<1%	36%	12%
12	Ole Miss	SEC	5-1	9.5-2.5	100%	<1%	42%	25%
13	Iowa	Big Ten	5-1	9.5-2.5	100%	<1%	19%	7%
14	North Dakota State	MWC	6-1	9.5-2.5	100%	<1%	52%	21%
15	Tennessee	SEC	6-1	9.4-2.6	100%	<1%	40%	17%
16	Houston	Big 12	6-1	9.4-2.6	100%	<1%	14%	6%
17	UTSA	American	6-1	9.4-2.6	100%	<1%	60%	35%
18	Liberty	C-USA	5-1	9.4-2.6	100%	<1%	75%	43%
19	New Mexico	MWC	5-1	9.3-2.7	100%	<1%	63%	41%
20	Boise State	Pac-12	5-1	9.2-1.8	100%	<1%	91%	67%
21	SMU	ACC	5-1	9.1-2.9	100%	<1%	46%	14%
22	Alabama	SEC	5-2	8.8-3.2	100%	<1%	14%	6%
23	Western Michigan	MAC	5-2	8.8-3.2	100%	<1%	75%	41%
24	Ohio	MAC	5-2	8.8-3.2	100%	<1%	73%	37%
25	Louisiana	Sun Belt	5-2	8.8-3.2	100%	<1%	33%	8%

Conference title races

Conference	Favorites
ACC	Miami 69%, SMU 14%, Wake Forest 12%, Louisville 2%
American Athletic	UTSA 35%, Army 21%, North Texas 19%, Tulane 12%
Big 12	BYU 33%, Texas Tech 32%, Utah 24%, Houston 6%
Big Ten	Ohio State 49%, Indiana 24%, UCLA 10%, Iowa 7%
Conference USA	Liberty 43%, Jacksonville State 39%, Western Kentucky 7%, Middle Tennessee 4%
Mid-American	Western Michigan 41%, Ohio 37%, Toledo 12%, Buffalo 4%
Mountain West	New Mexico 41%, North Dakota State 21%, UNLV 16%, Air Force 16%
Pac-12	Boise State 67%, Oregon State 15%, Texas State 8%, Fresno State 4%
SEC	Georgia 36%, Ole Miss 25%, Tennessee 17%, Kentucky 7%
Sun Belt	James Madison 78%, Louisiana 8%, Louisiana Tech 7%, Georgia Southern 3%

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (10,000 replays of the 375 remaining regular-season games with live in-sim Elo). Bowl = 6+ wins; CCG = reaching the conference championship game (top two by conference record, ties random); the title game is simulated at a neutral site. The 12-team playoff is a committee pick and is not modeled.

Betting-blind FBS Elo (conference-aware season regression, pooled FCS opponent, margin-weighted updates) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/cfb