Predictions for every game on 2026-09-18 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees @ Diamondbacks | Gerrit Cole vs. Eduardo Rodriguez | -2.1 / +9.8 | Yankees | 51% | 4.5–4.1 | 8.6 |
| Brewers @ Orioles | Dustin May vs. TBD | -2.5 / +0.0 | Brewers | 57% | 5.1–4.1 | 9.3 |
| Tigers @ White Sox | Andrew Sears vs. David Sandlin | -1.8 / +4.9 | White Sox | 52% | 4.5–4.4 | 8.8 |
| Cubs @ Reds | Clay Holmes vs. Chase Burns | +5.7 / +39.5 | Cubs | 53% | 5.2–4.6 | 9.8 |
| Athletics @ Guardians | Mason Barnett vs. Daniel Espino | -20.9 / -0.1 | Guardians | 67% | 5.4–3.9 | 9.3 |
| Mariners @ Rockies | Bryan Woo vs. TBD | +21.1 / +0.0 | Mariners | 61% | 5.6–4.2 | 9.8 |
| Braves @ Astros | Tyler Mahle vs. Peter Lambert | +10.4 / -4.8 | Braves | 53% | 4.6–4.0 | 8.6 |
| Twins @ Angels | Connor Prielipp vs. Grayson Rodriguez | -12.6 / -19.4 | Angels | 50% | 4.6–4.5 | 8.7 |
| Giants @ Dodgers | Cesar Perdomo vs. Tyler Glasnow | +2.8 / +4.0 | Dodgers | 65% | 5.2–3.8 | 9.0 |
| Phillies @ Mets | Andrew Painter vs. Zac Thornton | -31.0 / +10.1 | Mets | 53% | 4.5–4.4 | 8.9 |
| Royals @ Pirates | Randy Dobnak vs. Paul Skenes | -3.9 / +15.7 | Pirates | 60% | 4.7–3.9 | 8.6 |
| Marlins @ Padres | Tyler Phillips vs. Nick Pivetta | +1.0 / +16.3 | Padres | 60% | 5.0–4.2 | 9.2 |
| Nationals @ Cardinals | Cade Cavalli vs. Kyle Leahy | +13.2 / +9.9 | Cardinals | 56% | 4.9–4.5 | 9.3 |
| Red Sox @ Rays | Ranger Suarez vs. Ian Seymour | +4.2 / -8.0 | Rays | 52% | 4.4–4.3 | 8.6 |
| Blue Jays @ Rangers | Dylan Cease vs. Kumar Rocker | +21.9 / -11.8 | Blue Jays | 53% | 4.7–4.1 | 8.8 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb
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