MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-09-19
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 88%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 93-60 | +78 | 1534 | 97.2 | 88% | 100% |
| Yankees | 89-64 | +143 | 1554 | 94.1 | 12% | 100% |
| Orioles | 75-79 | -27 | 1496 | 78.6 | <1% | 2% |
| Red Sox | 84-70 | +85 | 1540 | 88.3 | <1% | 100% |
| Blue Jays | 76-78 | -43 | 1504 | 80.2 | <1% | 16% |
AL Central — Guardians 60%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Guardians | 79-75 | -5 | 1502 | 83.0 | 60% | 89% |
| White Sox | 78-76 | +33 | 1491 | 82.5 | 40% | 80% |
| Tigers | 73-81 | +77 | 1512 | 77.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Royals | 67-87 | -100 | 1475 | 70.9 | <1% | <1% |
| Twins | 72-82 | -71 | 1467 | 75.9 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Rangers 51%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rangers | 77-77 | -33 | 1494 | 81.2 | 51% | 57% |
| Astros | 77-77 | -54 | 1494 | 81.1 | 48% | 56% |
| Mariners | 72-82 | -55 | 1486 | 76.5 | <1% | <1% |
| Athletics | 61-93 | -216 | 1430 | 64.5 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 59-95 | -80 | 1447 | 62.7 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 90-65 | +110 | 1530 | 94.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Phillies | 85-69 | +31 | 1534 | 89.0 | <1% | 100% |
| Marlins | 76-78 | +2 | 1493 | 79.5 | <1% | <1% |
| Mets | 70-84 | -43 | 1494 | 73.8 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 72-82 | +11 | 1476 | 75.6 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 96-58 | +198 | 1573 | 100.7 | 100% | 100% |
| Cubs | 85-69 | +141 | 1544 | 89.4 | <1% | 99% |
| Reds | 72-82 | -152 | 1467 | 75.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 77-77 | +27 | 1502 | 81.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Cardinals | 75-79 | -22 | 1486 | 78.5 | <1% | <1% |
NL West — Dodgers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 94-60 | +185 | 1562 | 98.8 | 100% | 100% |
| Diamondbacks | 80-74 | -7 | 1502 | 84.0 | <1% | 2% |
| Rockies | 56-98 | -178 | 1407 | 59.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Padres | 85-69 | +36 | 1532 | 89.2 | <1% | 99% |
| Giants | 65-90 | -71 | 1474 | 68.6 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (88%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (84%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb