MLB Grade — 2026-09-22

How the 2026-09-22 predictions scored against actual results

Cumulative Δlog-loss vs always-pick-home: -0.0230 ± 0.0066 per game over 399 games (paired; negative = beating the baseline - currently ahead).

Yesterday	Correct	Log-loss
model	6/15	0.729
always-pick-home	5/15	0.718

Daily detail: 40% hit rate · Brier 0.267 · avg margin error 3.5 · avg total-runs error 4.2. Running: 236/399 (59.2%) · cumulative log-loss 0.669 · cumulative Brier 0.238 · 1 postponed/skipped

	Game	Pick	Predicted	Actual
✅	Angels @ Athletics	Athletics (54%)	4.5–4.3	9–7 (home first)
❌	Reds @ Braves	Braves (58%)	4.8–4.2	0–4 (home first)
❌	Guardians @ Red Sox	Red Sox (56%)	4.5–4.1	2–3 (home first)
❌	Marlins @ Cubs	Cubs (62%)	5.3–4.3	2–8 (home first)
✅	Diamondbacks @ Rockies	Diamondbacks (60%)	5.4–4	2–7 (home first)
❌	Nationals @ Tigers	Tigers (63%)	5.1–4	1–3 (home first)
✅	White Sox @ Royals	White Sox (52%)	4.7–4.2	11–14 (home first)
✅	Padres @ Dodgers	Dodgers (56%)	4.6–4.3	7–0 (home first)
✅	Rays @ Yankees	Yankees (56%)	4.5–4.1	2–0 (home first)
❌	Brewers @ Phillies	Brewers (50%)	4.7–4.4	6–4 (home first)
✅	Cardinals @ Pirates	Pirates (57%)	4.8–4.3	2–0 (home first)
❌	Astros @ Mariners	Mariners (56%)	4.6–4.3	0–7 (home first)
❌	Twins @ Giants	Giants (51%)	4.7–4.6	2–3 (home first)
❌	Mets @ Rangers	Rangers (53%)	4.6–4.5	3–6 (home first)
❌	Rays @ Yankees	Yankees (54%)	4.4–4.2	1–6 (home first)

The headline is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast (p=0.534) on the same games, ± one standard error; daily hit rate is noisy and demoted on purpose. Reference points: 0.693 is a coin flip; the model's walk-forward backtest runs 0.680 (research/SP-BACKTEST.md).

Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb