MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-09-23
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 96-61 | +86 | 1539 | 98.3 | 100% | 100% |
| Orioles | 76-81 | -30 | 1494 | 78.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Red Sox | 84-73 | +79 | 1535 | 86.7 | <1% | 100% |
| Yankees | 90-67 | +134 | 1548 | 92.9 | <1% | 100% |
| Blue Jays | 77-80 | -43 | 1503 | 79.7 | <1% | 0% |
AL Central — Guardians 59%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Guardians | 82-75 | +3 | 1506 | 84.4 | 59% | 100% |
| White Sox | 81-76 | +45 | 1498 | 84.0 | 41% | 99% |
| Tigers | 74-84 | +73 | 1508 | 76.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Royals | 67-90 | -105 | 1471 | 69.5 | <1% | <1% |
| Twins | 74-84 | -66 | 1469 | 76.0 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 55%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 78-79 | -52 | 1494 | 80.7 | 55% | 55% |
| Rangers | 78-79 | -37 | 1491 | 80.5 | 45% | 45% |
| Athletics | 62-95 | -221 | 1428 | 64.3 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 60-97 | -89 | 1443 | 62.1 | <1% | <1% |
| Mariners | 73-84 | -63 | 1482 | 75.9 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 92-66 | +111 | 1530 | 94.8 | 100% | 100% |
| Phillies | 87-70 | +31 | 1535 | 89.5 | <1% | 100% |
| Marlins | 77-80 | +3 | 1494 | 79.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Mets | 72-85 | -38 | 1496 | 74.5 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 74-84 | +7 | 1476 | 75.9 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 98-59 | +200 | 1574 | 101.0 | 100% | 100% |
| Cubs | 87-70 | +146 | 1544 | 89.6 | <1% | 100% |
| Reds | 73-84 | -159 | 1465 | 75.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 80-77 | +31 | 1505 | 82.5 | <1% | <1% |
| Cardinals | 76-81 | -25 | 1484 | 77.9 | <1% | <1% |
NL West — Dodgers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 97-60 | +200 | 1567 | 99.9 | 100% | 100% |
| Diamondbacks | 83-74 | +4 | 1509 | 85.5 | <1% | 4% |
| Rockies | 57-100 | -182 | 1406 | 58.8 | <1% | <1% |
| Padres | 87-70 | +34 | 1532 | 89.5 | <1% | 97% |
| Giants | 66-93 | -77 | 1471 | 67.7 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (100%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (74%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb