Predictions for every game on 2026-09-25 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros @ Athletics | Hunter Brown vs. Jacob Lopez | +19.5 / +15.9 | Astros | 56% | 5.1–4.1 | 9.2 |
| Cubs @ Red Sox | Clay Holmes vs. Alec Gamboa | -0.1 / -4.6 | Red Sox | 52% | 4.5–4.4 | 8.7 |
| Rockies @ White Sox | Tomoyuki Sugano vs. Sean Burke | +17.6 / +13.9 | White Sox | 66% | 5.6–4.1 | 9.7 |
| Pirates @ Tigers | Bubba Chandler vs. Jackson Jobe | -8.0 / -2.0 | Tigers | 55% | 4.4–4.1 | 8.6 |
| Guardians @ Royals | Gavin Williams vs. Noah Cameron | +21.0 / +19.6 | Guardians | 52% | 4.6–4.2 | 8.8 |
| Braves @ Marlins | TBD vs. Eury Pérez | +0.0 / +11.2 | Braves | 50% | 4.5–4.2 | 8.8 |
| Cardinals @ Brewers | Michael McGreevy vs. Robert Gasser | +0.3 / +0.2 | Brewers | 66% | 5.3–3.8 | 9.2 |
| Rangers @ Twins | Jacob deGrom vs. Joe Ryan | +17.2 / +2.2 | Rangers | 51% | 4.6–4.2 | 8.8 |
| Orioles @ Yankees | Brandon Young vs. TBD | -2.8 / +0.0 | Yankees | 62% | 4.7–3.7 | 8.5 |
| Rays @ Phillies | Freddy Peralta vs. Cristopher Sánchez | -8.9 / +1.5 | Phillies | 55% | 4.4–4.1 | 8.5 |
| Diamondbacks @ Padres | Brandon Pfaadt vs. TBD | +2.4 / +0.0 | Padres | 57% | 4.7–4.2 | 9.0 |
| Angels @ Mariners | Reid Detmers vs. Bryce Miller | +6.3 / +5.4 | Mariners | 59% | 4.7–4.0 | 8.8 |
| Dodgers @ Giants | Tarik Skubal vs. Yunior Marte | +13.7 / +2.4 | Dodgers | 61% | 5.2–3.7 | 8.8 |
| Reds @ Blue Jays | Nick Lodolo vs. TBD | +21.4 / +0.0 | Blue Jays | 56% | 4.6–4.3 | 8.9 |
| Mets @ Nationals | TBD vs. Andrew Alvarez | +0.0 / +8.3 | Nationals | 52% | 4.6–4.5 | 9.0 |
| Cubs @ Red Sox (G2) | David Peterson vs. Brayan Bello | -10.4 / -17.6 | Red Sox | 52% | 4.5–4.4 | 8.7 |
| Orioles @ Yankees (G2) | Trevor Rogers vs. Brendan Beck | +10.9 / -10.2 | Yankees | 58% | 4.6–3.9 | 8.5 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb
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