Predictions for every game on 2026-09-27 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros @ Athletics | Peter Lambert vs. Seth Johnson | -7.8 / +10.8 | Astros | 54% | 5.0–4.3 | 9.4 |
| Cubs @ Red Sox | Shota Imanaga vs. TBD | +8.2 / +0.0 | Red Sox | 52% | 4.4–4.3 | 8.5 |
| Rockies @ White Sox | Kyle Freeland vs. Anthony Kay | +11.9 / +0.5 | White Sox | 65% | 5.5–4.2 | 9.7 |
| Pirates @ Tigers | Jared Jones vs. River Ryan | +8.9 / +15.7 | Tigers | 55% | 4.5–4.2 | 8.7 |
| Guardians @ Royals | Parker Messick vs. Daniel Lynch IV | +25.6 / -5.1 | Guardians | 58% | 5.2–4.1 | 9.3 |
| Braves @ Marlins | JR Ritchie vs. Janson Junk | -18.6 / -4.2 | Marlins | 50% | 4.6–4.5 | 8.7 |
| Cardinals @ Brewers | Andre Pallante vs. Jacob Misiorowski | +2.9 / +32.3 | Brewers | 70% | 5.6–3.6 | 9.1 |
| Rangers @ Twins | MacKenzie Gore vs. Dean Kremer | -1.1 / -1.5 | Twins | 51% | 4.6–4.5 | 8.9 |
| Orioles @ Yankees | Shane Baz vs. Elmer Rodríguez | -1.2 / -33.0 | Yankees | 56% | 4.5–4.1 | 8.6 |
| Rays @ Phillies | Nick Martinez vs. Zack Wheeler | -7.8 / +10.7 | Phillies | 54% | 4.3–4.2 | 8.5 |
| Diamondbacks @ Padres | Michael Soroka vs. Randy Vásquez | +11.7 / +3.1 | Padres | 55% | 4.8–4.5 | 9.3 |
| Angels @ Mariners | Yusei Kikuchi vs. Logan Gilbert | -8.9 / +18.7 | Mariners | 63% | 5.0–3.9 | 8.9 |
| Dodgers @ Giants | TBD vs. Carson Seymour | +0.0 / +1.9 | Dodgers | 60% | 5.0–3.6 | 8.7 |
| Reds @ Blue Jays | Brandon Williamson vs. Max Scherzer | +12.7 / -0.9 | Blue Jays | 56% | 4.6–4.3 | 8.9 |
| Mets @ Nationals | Sean Manaea vs. DJ Herz | +1.4 / -3.6 | Mets | 51% | 4.7–4.4 | 9.1 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb
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