Soccer Update

Run date 2026-09-10 · fixtures for the next 7 days, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts for the top 5 leagues.

📅 Games this week

Bundesliga

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-09-111. FC Union Berlin v FC Schalke 0446% / 28% / 26%1. FC Union Berlin1–1
2026-09-121. FC Köln v SV Werder Bremen44% / 28% / 28%1. FC Köln1–1
2026-09-121. FSV Mainz 05 v Eintracht Frankfurt45% / 28% / 27%1. FSV Mainz 051–1
2026-09-12Borussia Dortmund v SC Paderborn 0764% / 23% / 13%Borussia Dortmund2–1
2026-09-12FC Augsburg v Bayer 04 Leverkusen29% / 29% / 42%Bayer 04 Leverkusen1–1
2026-09-12SC Freiburg v Borussia Mönchengladbach52% / 27% / 22%SC Freiburg1–1
2026-09-12TSG 1899 Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart36% / 29% / 35%TSG 1899 Hoffenheim1–1
2026-09-13RB Leipzig v Hamburger SV59% / 25% / 16%RB Leipzig2–1
2026-09-13SV 07 Elversberg v FC Bayern München13% / 24% / 63%FC Bayern München1–2

Championship

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-09-11West Ham United FC v Wrexham AFC68% / 21% / 11%West Ham United FC1–0
2026-09-12Blackburn Rovers FC v Millwall FC33% / 29% / 38%Millwall FC1–1
2026-09-12Bolton Wanderers FC v Cardiff City FC46% / 28% / 26%Bolton Wanderers FC1–1
2026-09-12Charlton Athletic FC v Portsmouth FC44% / 28% / 27%Charlton Athletic FC1–1
2026-09-12Derby County FC v Birmingham City FC42% / 28% / 29%Derby County FC1–1
2026-09-12Middlesbrough FC v Norwich City FC50% / 27% / 23%Middlesbrough FC1–1
2026-09-12Preston North End FC v Lincoln City FC61% / 24% / 15%Preston North End FC1–0
2026-09-12Southampton FC v Bristol City FC57% / 25% / 17%Southampton FC1–0
2026-09-12Swansea City AFC v Burnley FC43% / 28% / 29%Swansea City AFC1–1
2026-09-12Watford FC v Stoke City FC44% / 28% / 28%Watford FC1–1
2026-09-12West Bromwich Albion FC v Queens Park Rangers FC46% / 28% / 26%West Bromwich Albion FC1–1
2026-09-13Sheffield United FC v Wolverhampton Wanderers FC33% / 29% / 38%Wolverhampton Wanderers FC1–1
2026-09-15Bristol City FC v Lincoln City FC67% / 21% / 11%Bristol City FC2–0
2026-09-15Middlesbrough FC v Millwall FC48% / 28% / 24%Middlesbrough FC1–1

La Liga

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-09-11Sevilla FC v Valencia CF44% / 28% / 27%Sevilla FC1–1
2026-09-12Athletic Club v Elche CF56% / 26% / 18%Athletic Club1–0
2026-09-12CA Osasuna v RCD Espanyol de Barcelona48% / 28% / 25%CA Osasuna1–1
2026-09-12Real Madrid CF v Rayo Vallecano de Madrid76% / 17% / 6%Real Madrid CF2–0
2026-09-12Real Racing Club de Santander v Deportivo Alavés46% / 28% / 26%Real Racing Club de Santander1–1
2026-09-13Getafe CF v RC Deportivo La Coruña50% / 27% / 23%Getafe CF1–1
2026-09-13Levante UD v FC Barcelona14% / 24% / 62%FC Barcelona0–1
2026-09-13RC Celta de Vigo v Málaga CF61% / 24% / 15%RC Celta de Vigo1–0
2026-09-13Real Sociedad de Fútbol v Club Atlético de Madrid30% / 29% / 41%Club Atlético de Madrid1–1
2026-09-14Villarreal CF v Real Betis Balompié48% / 28% / 25%Villarreal CF1–1
2026-09-15Deportivo Alavés v Valencia CF44% / 28% / 27%Deportivo Alavés1–1
2026-09-15Elche CF v Real Madrid CF12% / 24% / 64%Real Madrid CF0–1
2026-09-15Rayo Vallecano de Madrid v RCD Espanyol de Barcelona49% / 27% / 24%Rayo Vallecano de Madrid1–1
2026-09-16Club Atlético de Madrid v CA Osasuna65% / 23% / 13%Club Atlético de Madrid1–0
2026-09-16FC Barcelona v Real Racing Club de Santander78% / 16% / 6%FC Barcelona2–0
2026-09-16Levante UD v Athletic Club39% / 29% / 32%Levante UD1–1
2026-09-16RC Deportivo La Coruña v Sevilla FC41% / 29% / 30%RC Deportivo La Coruña1–1

Ligue 1

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-09-11Stade Rennais FC 1901 v Olympique de Marseille43% / 28% / 28%Stade Rennais FC 19011–1
2026-09-12AJ Auxerre v OGC Nice39% / 29% / 32%AJ Auxerre1–1
2026-09-12FC Lorient v Toulouse FC44% / 28% / 27%FC Lorient1–1
2026-09-12Havre AC v Angers SCO44% / 28% / 28%Havre AC1–1
2026-09-12Paris FC v Olympique Lyonnais35% / 29% / 36%Olympique Lyonnais1–1
2026-09-12RC Strasbourg Alsace v AS Monaco FC39% / 29% / 32%RC Strasbourg Alsace1–1
2026-09-13Le Mans FC v Racing Club de Lens23% / 28% / 49%Racing Club de Lens0–1
2026-09-13Lille OSC v ES Troyes AC61% / 24% / 15%Lille OSC2–0
2026-09-13Stade Brestois 29 v Paris Saint-Germain FC12% / 23% / 65%Paris Saint-Germain FC0–2

Serie A

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-09-11Venezia FC v ACF Fiorentina33% / 29% / 38%ACF Fiorentina1–1
2026-09-12Atalanta BC v Cagliari Calcio65% / 23% / 13%Atalanta BC1–0
2026-09-12Genoa CFC v Frosinone Calcio45% / 28% / 26%Genoa CFC1–1
2026-09-12SS Lazio v AC Milan33% / 29% / 38%AC Milan1–1
2026-09-13SSC Napoli v Bologna FC 190957% / 25% / 18%SSC Napoli1–0
2026-09-13US Lecce v AC Monza42% / 29% / 29%US Lecce1–1
2026-09-13US Sassuolo Calcio v Juventus FC22% / 28% / 50%Juventus FC0–1
2026-09-14Como 1907 v Parma Calcio 191364% / 23% / 13%Como 19071–0
2026-09-14FC Internazionale Milano v Udinese Calcio75% / 18% / 7%FC Internazionale Milano1–0
2026-09-14Torino FC v AS Roma21% / 27% / 52%AS Roma0–1

Premier League

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-09-12AFC Bournemouth v Brentford FC46% / 28% / 26%AFC Bournemouth1–1
2026-09-12Aston Villa FC v Nottingham Forest FC49% / 27% / 24%Aston Villa FC1–1
2026-09-12Chelsea FC v Hull City AFC68% / 21% / 11%Chelsea FC1–0
2026-09-12Crystal Palace FC v Ipswich Town FC52% / 27% / 21%Crystal Palace FC1–1
2026-09-12Liverpool FC v Fulham FC63% / 23% / 14%Liverpool FC1–0
2026-09-12Sunderland AFC v Arsenal FC14% / 25% / 61%Arsenal FC0–1
2026-09-12Tottenham Hotspur FC v Everton FC43% / 29% / 29%Tottenham Hotspur FC1–1
2026-09-13Coventry City FC v Brighton & Hove Albion FC33% / 29% / 38%Brighton & Hove Albion FC1–1
2026-09-13Manchester United FC v Manchester City FC29% / 29% / 42%Manchester City FC1–1
2026-09-14Leeds United FC v Newcastle United FC42% / 29% / 30%Leeds United FC1–1

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

WindowGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Last 7 days6142.6%1.0884
Last 30 days16848.8%1.0121
Season to date16848.8%1.0121

Season record by league

LeagueGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Bundesliga1844.4%0.9788
Championship4744.7%1.0610
Premier League2944.8%1.0204
La Liga3046.7%0.9746
Ligue 11844.4%1.1673
Serie A2669.2%0.8737

Past week: 26/61 picks correct

DateLeagueResultPickLog loss
❌2026-09-03La LigaReal Sociedad de Fútbol 0–0 RC Celta de VigoH1.28
✅2026-09-03Ligue 1Toulouse FC 0–1 Lille OSCA0.92
✅2026-09-04BundesligaVfB Stuttgart 4–1 1. FC KölnH0.51
✅2026-09-04Premier LeagueIpswich Town FC 0–2 Liverpool FCA0.70
❌2026-09-04La LigaReal Betis Balompié 1–0 Real Madrid CFA1.58
✅2026-09-04Ligue 1Olympique Lyonnais 3–1 AJ AuxerreH0.55
❌2026-09-04Ligue 1Paris Saint-Germain FC 1–2 AS Monaco FCH2.30
✅2026-09-04Serie AGenoa CFC 1–4 Como 1907A0.79
✅2026-09-05BundesligaBayer 04 Leverkusen 4–0 1. FC Union BerlinH0.46
❌2026-09-05BundesligaBorussia Mönchengladbach 3–4 SV 07 ElversbergH1.25
❌2026-09-05BundesligaFC Schalke 04 0–0 FC Bayern MünchenA1.51
❌2026-09-05BundesligaSC Paderborn 07 0–1 SC FreiburgH1.18
❌2026-09-05BundesligaSV Werder Bremen 3–1 RB LeipzigA1.31
✅2026-09-05BundesligaTSG 1899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Borussia DortmundA0.91
❌2026-09-05ChampionshipBurnley FC 1–2 Bristol City FCH1.58
❌2026-09-05ChampionshipLincoln City FC 1–1 Southampton FCA1.43
✅2026-09-05ChampionshipMillwall FC 4–0 Bolton Wanderers FCH0.55
✅2026-09-05ChampionshipPortsmouth FC 2–0 Cardiff City FCH0.74
✅2026-09-05ChampionshipPreston North End FC 2–1 Blackburn Rovers FCH0.87
✅2026-09-05ChampionshipQueens Park Rangers FC 0–1 Middlesbrough FCA0.98
❌2026-09-05ChampionshipSheffield United FC 1–3 Norwich City FCH1.28
✅2026-09-05ChampionshipStoke City FC 4–0 Charlton Athletic FCH0.89
❌2026-09-05ChampionshipSwansea City AFC 0–0 Wrexham AFCH1.33
✅2026-09-05ChampionshipWest Bromwich Albion FC 1–0 Watford FCH0.75
✅2026-09-05ChampionshipWest Ham United FC 3–0 Derby County FCH0.42
❌2026-09-05Premier LeagueBrentford FC 1–1 Sunderland AFCH1.33
❌2026-09-05Premier LeagueBrighton & Hove Albion FC 1–1 Leeds United FCH1.28
❌2026-09-05Premier LeagueFulham FC 2–3 Crystal Palace FCH1.27
❌2026-09-05Premier LeagueHull City AFC 0–0 Aston Villa FCA1.25
✅2026-09-05Premier LeagueManchester City FC 1–0 Coventry City FCH0.31
❌2026-09-05Premier LeagueNewcastle United FC 2–2 AFC BournemouthH1.26
❌2026-09-05Premier LeagueNottingham Forest FC 0–0 Tottenham Hotspur FCH1.29
❌2026-09-05La LigaAthletic Club 3–0 Club Atlético de MadridA1.21
✅2026-09-05La LigaRayo Vallecano de Madrid 3–2 Real Racing Club de SantanderH0.75
❌2026-09-05La LigaVillarreal CF 2–3 RC Deportivo La CoruñaH2.02
❌2026-09-05Ligue 1Havre AC 1–2 Stade Brestois 29H1.11
❌2026-09-05Ligue 1OGC Nice 1–1 Le Mans FCH1.33
❌2026-09-05Ligue 1Racing Club de Lens 0–1 FC LorientH1.61
❌2026-09-05Serie AACF Fiorentina 1–2 Torino FCH1.49
✅2026-09-05Serie AAS Roma 2–1 Atalanta BCH0.76
✅2026-09-05Serie AFC Internazionale Milano 3–2 SSC NapoliH0.55
❌2026-09-06BundesligaEintracht Frankfurt 1–4 FC AugsburgH1.44
❌2026-09-06BundesligaHamburger SV 0–5 1. FSV Mainz 05H1.20
❌2026-09-06ChampionshipBirmingham City FC 2–2 Wolverhampton Wanderers FCA1.25
✅2026-09-06Premier LeagueArsenal FC 2–1 Chelsea FCH0.47
❌2026-09-06Premier LeagueEverton FC 2–2 Manchester United FCA1.24
✅2026-09-06La LigaDeportivo Alavés 5–2 CA OsasunaH0.83
❌2026-09-06La LigaMálaga CF 0–0 Levante UDA1.23
❌2026-09-06La LigaRCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1–1 Sevilla FCH1.27
✅2026-09-06La LigaValencia CF 0–5 FC BarcelonaA0.51
✅2026-09-06Ligue 1Angers SCO 1–2 Stade Rennais FC 1901A0.82
✅2026-09-06Ligue 1ES Troyes AC 2–6 RC Strasbourg AlsaceA0.92
❌2026-09-06Ligue 1Olympique de Marseille 2–3 Paris FCH1.45
❌2026-09-06Serie ABologna FC 1909 2–2 US Sassuolo CalcioH1.29
✅2026-09-06Serie AFrosinone Calcio 3–2 Venezia FCH0.89
❌2026-09-06Serie AJuventus FC 1–1 AC MilanH1.27
❌2026-09-06Serie AParma Calcio 1913 1–1 AC MonzaH1.27
❌2026-09-07La LigaElche CF 2–3 Real Sociedad de FútbolH1.11
❌2026-09-07La LigaGetafe CF 1–1 RC Celta de VigoH1.25
✅2026-09-07Serie ACagliari Calcio 1–0 US LecceH0.77
✅2026-09-07Serie AUdinese Calcio 1–2 SS LazioA0.99

🔮 Final-table forecasts

Premier League — Arsenal FC 56% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Arsenal FC982.71.756%97%2%<1%
2Manchester City FC978.52.333%91%5%<1%
3Liverpool FC566.35.05%56%20%<1%
4Manchester United FC458.97.51%27%21%2%
5Chelsea FC657.68.01%24%19%2%
6Newcastle United FC554.79.21%16%17%4%
7AFC Bournemouth254.19.4<1%14%16%5%
8Brighton & Hove Albion FC454.09.4<1%14%16%5%
9Leeds United FC553.59.6<1%13%15%5%
10Aston Villa FC153.49.6<1%13%15%5%
11Brentford FC552.99.9<1%12%14%6%
12Everton FC549.911.1<1%8%11%10%
13Nottingham Forest FC246.612.5<1%4%7%16%
14Crystal Palace FC346.112.7<1%4%7%17%
15Sunderland AFC442.614.2<1%2%4%27%
16Fulham FC041.114.7<1%1%3%32%
17Tottenham Hotspur FC140.115.2<1%1%2%35%
18Coventry City FC039.115.5<1%1%2%40%
19Ipswich Town FC337.716.1<1%1%1%45%
20Hull City AFC737.916.1<1%<1%1%45%

Bundesliga — FC Bayern München 62% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Bayern München472.11.762%96%3%<1%
2Borussia Dortmund663.73.419%76%13%<1%
3Bayer 04 Leverkusen357.45.36%51%20%1%
4VfB Stuttgart355.56.04%42%21%2%
5RB Leipzig353.26.83%33%21%3%
6SC Freiburg650.38.02%22%19%5%
7SV 07 Elversberg648.38.91%16%17%7%
81. FSV Mainz 05448.28.91%17%17%7%
9FC Augsburg646.79.51%13%14%9%
10TSG 1899 Hoffenheim044.010.7<1%8%11%16%
11SC Paderborn 07142.611.3<1%6%9%19%
12Eintracht Frankfurt141.211.9<1%5%8%24%
13SV Werder Bremen340.112.4<1%4%6%27%
141. FC Köln339.212.8<1%3%5%31%
15Hamburger SV038.912.8<1%3%5%32%
16Borussia Mönchengladbach037.513.4<1%2%4%38%
171. FC Union Berlin137.313.5<1%2%4%38%
18FC Schalke 04136.513.8<1%2%3%42%

La Liga — FC Barcelona 64% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Barcelona1286.91.564%99%<1%<1%
2Real Madrid CF981.92.031%98%2%<1%
3Club Atlético de Madrid769.54.03%72%17%<1%
4Real Betis Balompié964.45.41%48%26%<1%
5Villarreal CF258.97.2<1%25%28%1%
6Athletic Club655.98.4<1%16%23%2%
7Real Sociedad de Fútbol752.49.9<1%8%17%5%
8Deportivo Alavés1051.510.3<1%7%14%5%
9CA Osasuna749.411.2<1%5%11%8%
10Sevilla FC748.811.5<1%4%10%9%
11Rayo Vallecano de Madrid448.511.6<1%4%10%10%
12RC Celta de Vigo347.112.2<1%3%8%12%
13Levante UD546.612.5<1%2%7%14%
14Real Racing Club de Santander445.213.1<1%2%6%18%
15Getafe CF444.913.3<1%2%6%19%
16Valencia CF144.513.4<1%2%5%20%
17RCD Espanyol de Barcelona443.713.8<1%1%4%23%
18RC Deportivo La Coruña843.314.0<1%1%4%23%
19Elche CF138.216.1<1%<1%1%45%
20Málaga CF229.018.8<1%<1%<1%84%

Serie A — FC Internazionale Milano 63% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Internazionale Milano985.71.763%96%3%<1%
2AS Roma975.33.614%70%19%<1%
3Juventus FC771.34.67%54%25%<1%
4AC Milan768.75.25%42%27%<1%
5SSC Napoli368.15.43%40%28%<1%
6Atalanta BC668.15.44%40%28%<1%
7Como 1907764.96.32%28%27%<1%
8SS Lazio964.06.52%25%25%<1%
9Bologna FC 1909150.010.9<1%2%6%4%
10Udinese Calcio445.712.4<1%1%3%9%
11US Sassuolo Calcio445.712.4<1%1%3%9%
12ACF Fiorentina043.613.1<1%<1%2%13%
13Torino FC343.513.2<1%<1%2%13%
14Cagliari Calcio641.114.0<1%<1%1%19%
15Frosinone Calcio640.714.2<1%<1%1%20%
16Genoa CFC037.315.4<1%<1%<1%32%
17Venezia FC034.716.2<1%<1%<1%43%
18Parma Calcio 1913134.516.3<1%<1%<1%44%
19US Lecce334.316.4<1%<1%<1%45%
20AC Monza133.316.7<1%<1%<1%49%

Ligue 1 — Paris Saint-Germain FC 49% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Paris Saint-Germain FC269.72.149%91%6%<1%
2AS Monaco FC961.84.215%62%18%<1%
3Lille OSC760.74.513%57%20%<1%
4Olympique Lyonnais757.15.77%42%22%<1%
5Stade Rennais FC 1901755.56.35%35%22%1%
6Racing Club de Lens354.66.54%31%22%1%
7RC Strasbourg Alsace653.47.03%27%21%1%
8Olympique de Marseille351.57.72%20%19%2%
9Paris FC749.98.32%16%17%3%
10FC Lorient445.410.0<1%8%11%7%
11Stade Brestois 29542.811.0<1%5%8%11%
12Toulouse FC140.511.9<1%3%5%17%
13OGC Nice238.912.5<1%2%4%22%
14ES Troyes AC434.814.0<1%1%1%37%
15AJ Auxerre033.614.4<1%<1%1%43%
16Angers SCO333.114.6<1%<1%1%45%
17Havre AC132.814.6<1%<1%1%47%
18Le Mans FC229.715.6<1%<1%<1%62%

MLS

No 2026 fixtures published upstream yet.

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (30,000 replays of the remaining fixtures with live in-sim Elo). Proj = projected finish ordered by expected position; xPts / xPos = expected points and position; UCL = top 4, UEL = 5th–6th, Rel = bottom 3.

Glued club Elo (top-5 leagues + UEFA cross-play) with a squad-economics outcome model · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/soccer

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