Soccer Update

Run date 2026-09-21 · fixtures for the next 7 days, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts for the top 5 leagues.

📅 Games this week

No league fixtures in the coming week.

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

WindowGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Last 7 days6647.0%1.0115
Last 30 days29747.8%1.0184
Season to date29747.8%1.0184

Season record by league

LeagueGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Bundesliga3650.0%0.9618
Championship8243.9%1.0730
Premier League4940.8%1.0547
La Liga5850.0%0.9553
Ligue 12642.3%1.1321
Serie A4660.9%0.9422

Past week: 31/66 picks correct

DateLeagueResultPickLog loss
✅2026-09-14Premier LeagueLeeds United FC 4–1 Newcastle United FCH0.85
❌2026-09-14La LigaVillarreal CF 1–2 Real Betis BalompiéH1.49
✅2026-09-14Serie AComo 1907 2–1 Parma Calcio 1913H0.31
✅2026-09-14Serie AFC Internazionale Milano 5–3 Udinese CalcioH0.28
✅2026-09-14Serie ATorino FC 0–2 AS RomaA0.47
❌2026-09-15ChampionshipBristol City FC 0–1 Lincoln City FCH2.12
❌2026-09-15ChampionshipMiddlesbrough FC 2–2 Millwall FCH1.28
❌2026-09-15La LigaDeportivo Alavés 0–1 Valencia CFH1.46
✅2026-09-15La LigaElche CF 2–3 Real Madrid CFA0.39
✅2026-09-15La LigaRayo Vallecano de Madrid 2–1 RCD Espanyol de BarcelonaH0.67
✅2026-09-16La LigaClub Atlético de Madrid 4–0 CA OsasunaH0.49
✅2026-09-16La LigaFC Barcelona 7–2 Real Racing Club de SantanderH0.26
❌2026-09-16La LigaRC Deportivo La Coruña 0–1 Sevilla FCH1.16
✅2026-09-17La LigaMálaga CF 1–3 Villarreal CFA0.63
✅2026-09-17La LigaReal Betis Balompié 1–0 Getafe CFH0.52
✅2026-09-18BundesligaFC Bayern München 7–0 1. FC Union BerlinH0.23
✅2026-09-18ChampionshipBristol City FC 1–0 Watford FCH0.85
❌2026-09-18Premier LeagueBrentford FC 3–0 Chelsea FCA1.01
❌2026-09-18La LigaRCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1–3 Elche CFH1.62
❌2026-09-18Serie AAC Monza 2–1 US Sassuolo CalcioA1.17
✅2026-09-19BundesligaBorussia Mönchengladbach 3–4 1. FSV Mainz 05A0.82
❌2026-09-19BundesligaEintracht Frankfurt 2–2 SC FreiburgH1.29
❌2026-09-19BundesligaHamburger SV 2–1 1. FC KölnA1.13
✅2026-09-19BundesligaSV Werder Bremen 3–2 FC AugsburgH0.99
✅2026-09-19BundesligaVfB Stuttgart 0–1 Borussia DortmundA1.01
❌2026-09-19ChampionshipBirmingham City FC 2–2 Middlesbrough FCA1.33
❌2026-09-19ChampionshipBurnley FC 1–1 Derby County FCH1.53
✅2026-09-19ChampionshipCardiff City FC 3–1 Charlton Athletic FCH0.85
✅2026-09-19ChampionshipLincoln City FC 1–2 Swansea City AFCA0.88
❌2026-09-19ChampionshipMillwall FC 2–2 West Ham United FCA1.23
❌2026-09-19ChampionshipPortsmouth FC 2–2 Blackburn Rovers FCH1.38
❌2026-09-19ChampionshipQueens Park Rangers FC 2–2 Preston North End FCH1.32
✅2026-09-19ChampionshipStoke City FC 2–1 Sheffield United FCH0.93
❌2026-09-19ChampionshipWrexham AFC 2–1 Southampton FCA1.29
❌2026-09-19Premier LeagueBrighton & Hove Albion FC 3–0 Arsenal FCA1.39
✅2026-09-19Premier LeagueEverton FC 1–0 Ipswich Town FCH0.64
✅2026-09-19Premier LeagueNewcastle United FC 2–1 Hull City AFCH0.52
❌2026-09-19Premier LeagueNottingham Forest FC 0–1 Coventry City FCH1.56
❌2026-09-19Premier LeagueTottenham Hotspur FC 2–3 Aston Villa FCH1.31
❌2026-09-19La LigaAthletic Club 0–0 Deportivo AlavésH1.32
❌2026-09-19La LigaCA Osasuna 1–1 Rayo Vallecano de MadridH1.25
✅2026-09-19La LigaRC Celta de Vigo 5–0 Real Racing Club de SantanderH0.71
✅2026-09-19La LigaSevilla FC 1–3 FC BarcelonaA0.46
❌2026-09-19Serie AAS Roma 2–2 FC Internazionale MilanoH1.47
❌2026-09-19Serie ABologna FC 1909 1–1 Torino FCH1.28
❌2026-09-19Serie AUdinese Calcio 0–1 Cagliari CalcioH1.31
✅2026-09-19Serie AVenezia FC 0–2 SS LazioA0.78
✅2026-09-20BundesligaBayer 04 Leverkusen 2–0 RB LeipzigH0.63
❌2026-09-20BundesligaFC Schalke 04 0–0 SV 07 ElversbergH1.25
❌2026-09-20BundesligaSC Paderborn 07 3–1 TSG 1899 HoffenheimA1.50
❌2026-09-20ChampionshipNorwich City FC 3–4 Bolton Wanderers FCH1.56
✅2026-09-20ChampionshipWolverhampton Wanderers FC 1–0 West Bromwich Albion FCH0.44
❌2026-09-20Premier LeagueAFC Bournemouth 0–1 Liverpool FCH1.04
❌2026-09-20Premier LeagueFulham FC 1–1 Manchester United FCA1.43
❌2026-09-20Premier LeagueLeeds United FC 0–0 Crystal Palace FCH1.29
✅2026-09-20Premier LeagueManchester City FC 5–3 Sunderland AFCH0.25
❌2026-09-20La LigaClub Atlético de Madrid 2–1 Real Madrid CFA1.50
✅2026-09-20La LigaGetafe CF 1–0 Málaga CFH0.58
❌2026-09-20La LigaRC Deportivo La Coruña 1–1 Real Betis BalompiéA1.29
❌2026-09-20La LigaValencia CF 2–3 Real Sociedad de FútbolH1.25
✅2026-09-20La LigaVillarreal CF 3–1 Levante UDH0.58
✅2026-09-20Serie AAC Milan 3–0 US LecceH0.34
❌2026-09-20Serie AACF Fiorentina 1–1 SSC NapoliA1.23
❌2026-09-20Serie AFrosinone Calcio 2–0 Como 1907A1.81
✅2026-09-20Serie AJuventus FC 2–0 Atalanta BCH0.50
✅2026-09-20Serie AParma Calcio 1913 2–1 Genoa CFCH1.03

🔮 Final-table forecasts

Premier League — Manchester City FC 48% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Manchester City FC1581.51.948%96%3%<1%
2Arsenal FC1280.72.043%96%3%<1%
3Liverpool FC967.04.75%59%20%<1%
4Brighton & Hove Albion FC1061.66.52%36%23%1%
5Manchester United FC556.48.3<1%19%20%2%
6Brentford FC955.88.61%18%18%3%
7Leeds United FC955.28.81%16%18%3%
8Chelsea FC753.49.6<1%12%16%4%
9Newcastle United FC853.39.6<1%12%16%4%
10Aston Villa FC452.79.9<1%11%15%5%
11AFC Bournemouth351.110.6<1%8%13%7%
12Everton FC951.010.6<1%8%12%7%
13Nottingham Forest FC546.812.4<1%4%7%14%
14Crystal Palace FC443.413.8<1%2%4%24%
15Fulham FC241.714.5<1%1%3%29%
16Sunderland AFC440.515.0<1%1%3%33%
17Coventry City FC339.515.4<1%1%2%37%
18Ipswich Town FC639.615.4<1%1%2%36%
19Tottenham Hotspur FC237.616.1<1%<1%1%45%
20Hull City AFC837.616.2<1%<1%1%45%

Bundesliga — FC Bayern München 65% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Bayern München1074.21.665%98%2%<1%
2Borussia Dortmund1267.32.724%88%8%<1%
3Bayer 04 Leverkusen758.54.95%56%20%<1%
4RB Leipzig653.16.82%32%22%2%
5SC Freiburg1052.37.11%29%22%3%
6VfB Stuttgart351.47.51%26%21%3%
71. FSV Mainz 05747.59.1<1%14%17%7%
8SV 07 Elversberg746.79.4<1%13%15%8%
9FC Augsburg744.910.2<1%9%13%12%
10TSG 1899 Hoffenheim344.110.5<1%8%12%14%
11Eintracht Frankfurt543.910.6<1%7%11%14%
12SC Paderborn 07443.710.8<1%7%11%15%
13SV Werder Bremen742.311.4<1%5%9%18%
14Hamburger SV339.212.7<1%3%6%30%
15FC Schalke 04539.212.7<1%3%5%29%
161. FC Köln436.913.6<1%2%3%39%
171. FC Union Berlin133.914.7<1%1%2%52%
18Borussia Mönchengladbach033.714.8<1%1%2%53%

La Liga — FC Barcelona 72% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Barcelona2189.51.472%100%<1%<1%
2Real Madrid CF1581.82.221%98%2%<1%
3Club Atlético de Madrid1675.13.26%89%9%<1%
4Real Betis Balompié1667.44.61%61%26%<1%
5Villarreal CF859.26.9<1%20%36%1%
6Athletic Club853.59.2<1%8%22%3%
7Real Sociedad de Fútbol1053.19.3<1%7%21%3%
8Sevilla FC1352.29.7<1%5%19%3%
9Rayo Vallecano de Madrid849.411.0<1%3%13%8%
10Deportivo Alavés1147.911.6<1%2%9%9%
11RC Celta de Vigo747.611.8<1%2%9%11%
12Real Racing Club de Santander744.913.1<1%1%5%17%
13CA Osasuna844.713.1<1%1%5%17%
14Levante UD544.513.2<1%1%6%19%
15Getafe CF844.113.4<1%1%5%19%
16Valencia CF443.413.7<1%1%4%21%
17RCD Espanyol de Barcelona742.614.1<1%1%3%24%
18RC Deportivo La Coruña1041.714.5<1%<1%3%27%
19Elche CF541.014.8<1%<1%2%31%
20Málaga CF327.819.1<1%<1%<1%88%

Serie A — FC Internazionale Milano 65% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Internazionale Milano1385.81.665%97%2%<1%
2AS Roma1376.93.217%79%15%<1%
3Juventus FC1070.54.66%53%26%<1%
4AC Milan1169.54.95%49%27%<1%
5SSC Napoli768.35.23%43%29%<1%
6SS Lazio1365.56.02%31%28%<1%
7Atalanta BC662.76.81%21%26%<1%
8Como 19071062.56.91%21%26%<1%
9Cagliari Calcio1247.911.7<1%1%4%5%
10Bologna FC 1909247.711.7<1%1%4%6%
11ACF Fiorentina446.712.1<1%1%4%7%
12US Sassuolo Calcio746.512.2<1%1%3%7%
13Frosinone Calcio1044.313.0<1%<1%2%11%
14Torino FC442.413.7<1%<1%1%16%
15Udinese Calcio442.313.7<1%<1%1%16%
16Parma Calcio 1913435.916.0<1%<1%<1%38%
17US Lecce635.716.1<1%<1%<1%39%
18Genoa CFC134.616.4<1%<1%<1%44%
19AC Monza434.116.6<1%<1%<1%47%
20Venezia FC030.817.6<1%<1%<1%62%

Ligue 1 — Paris Saint-Germain FC 54% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Paris Saint-Germain FC570.91.954%94%5%<1%
2Lille OSC1062.04.114%65%18%<1%
3AS Monaco FC1061.24.313%61%20%<1%
4Stade Rennais FC 19011057.45.56%44%23%<1%
5Olympique Lyonnais856.55.85%40%23%<1%
6Racing Club de Lens453.16.92%26%22%1%
7RC Strasbourg Alsace752.97.02%25%23%1%
8Olympique de Marseille349.58.31%15%18%3%
9Paris FC849.48.41%15%17%3%
10FC Lorient544.510.2<1%6%10%8%
11Stade Brestois 29541.711.3<1%3%7%13%
12Toulouse FC240.311.9<1%2%5%17%
13OGC Nice236.713.2<1%1%2%29%
14ESTAC Troyes436.513.3<1%1%2%30%
15AJ Auxerre335.513.7<1%1%2%34%
16Angers SCO432.714.6<1%<1%1%47%
17Havre AC231.615.0<1%<1%1%52%
18Le Mans FC329.915.5<1%<1%<1%61%

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (30,000 replays of the remaining fixtures with live in-sim Elo). Proj = projected finish ordered by expected position; xPts / xPos = expected points and position; UCL = top 4, UEL = 5th–6th, Rel = bottom 3.

🇺🇸 MLS — Shield, playoffs and MLS Cup

Eastern Conference — Inter Miami CF 28% to reach MLS Cup

SeedTeamPtsxPtsPlayoffs1 seedConfCupShield
1.1Nashville SC5369.7100%87%26%16%72%
2.2Inter Miami CF4462.4100%11%28%17%8%
4.0Chicago Fire FC3955.0100%1%10%5%<1%
4.5Charlotte FC3953.299%<1%10%5%<1%
4.7New England Revolution4052.599%<1%6%2%<1%
6.8FC Cincinnati3148.089%<1%6%3%<1%
7.7Orlando City SC3145.778%<1%4%2%<1%
8.0Philadelphia Union3045.075%<1%5%2%<1%
8.8New York City FC2943.763%<1%3%1%<1%
10.7Toronto FC2940.530%<1%1%<1%<1%
11.0D.C. United2839.825%<1%<1%<1%<1%
11.1New York Red Bulls2739.324%<1%1%<1%<1%
11.9Columbus Crew2337.214%<1%0%<1%<1%
13.5Atlanta United FC2233.23%<1%<1%<1%<1%
14.1CF Montréal2131.71%<1%<1%<1%<1%

Western Conference — Vancouver Whitecaps FC 30% to reach MLS Cup

SeedTeamPtsxPtsPlayoffs1 seedConfCupShield
1.4Vancouver Whitecaps FC4664.2100%76%30%17%19%
3.1Houston Dynamo FC4357.7100%12%13%6%1%
3.6FC Dallas4056.499%7%13%6%<1%
4.1Los Angeles FC4055.099%4%18%9%<1%
5.6St. Louis City SC3852.194%1%7%3%<1%
5.7San Jose Earthquakes3851.493%1%5%2%<1%
8.8Portland Timbers3245.761%<1%3%1%<1%
9.0Colorado Rapids3245.056%<1%2%1%<1%
9.5Real Salt Lake2944.448%<1%2%1%<1%
9.8San Diego FC3043.945%<1%2%1%<1%
9.9Seattle Sounders FC2744.043%<1%2%1%<1%
10.2Minnesota United FC2943.537%<1%2%1%<1%
11.6LA Galaxy2940.717%<1%1%<1%<1%
12.9Austin FC2637.86%<1%<1%<1%<1%
14.9Sporting Kansas City1525.5<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%

153 regular-season matches left, replayed 20,000 times with live in-sim Elo, then the full playoff bracket each time. Seed = expected conference finish; 1 seed = finishing top of the conference; Conf = reaching MLS Cup; Shield = best record in the league. MLS publishes no machine-readable fixture list, so the run-in is reconstructed from the league's format: 128 conference fixtures are exact, and the 25 cross-conference ones are known only as per-club home/away counts, so every replay draws its own pairing of them.

Glued club Elo (top-5 leagues + UEFA cross-play) with a squad-economics outcome model · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/soccer

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