Soccer Update

Run date 2026-09-23 · fixtures for the next 7 days, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts for the top 5 leagues.

📅 Games this week

No league fixtures in the coming week.

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

Window	Graded	Pick accuracy	Log loss
Last 7 days	65	47.7%	1.0095
Last 30 days	280	48.2%	1.0145
Season to date	306	48.4%	1.0152

Season record by league

League	Graded	Pick accuracy	Log loss
Bundesliga	36	50.0%	0.9618
Championship	82	43.9%	1.0730
Premier League	49	40.8%	1.0547
La Liga	58	50.0%	0.9553
Ligue 1	35	48.6%	1.0746
Serie A	46	60.9%	0.9422

Past week: 31/65 picks correct

	Date	League	Result	Pick	Log loss
✅	2026-09-16	La Liga	Club Atlético de Madrid 4–0 CA Osasuna	H	0.49
✅	2026-09-16	La Liga	FC Barcelona 7–2 Real Racing Club de Santander	H	0.26
❌	2026-09-16	La Liga	RC Deportivo La Coruña 0–1 Sevilla FC	H	1.16
✅	2026-09-17	La Liga	Málaga CF 1–3 Villarreal CF	A	0.63
✅	2026-09-17	La Liga	Real Betis Balompié 1–0 Getafe CF	H	0.52
✅	2026-09-18	Bundesliga	FC Bayern München 7–0 1. FC Union Berlin	H	0.23
✅	2026-09-18	Championship	Bristol City FC 1–0 Watford FC	H	0.85
❌	2026-09-18	Premier League	Brentford FC 3–0 Chelsea FC	A	1.01
❌	2026-09-18	La Liga	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1–3 Elche CF	H	1.62
❌	2026-09-18	Ligue 1	AS Monaco FC 2–1 Racing Club de Lens	A	1.03
❌	2026-09-18	Serie A	AC Monza 2–1 US Sassuolo Calcio	A	1.17
✅	2026-09-19	Bundesliga	Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–4 1. FSV Mainz 05	A	0.82
❌	2026-09-19	Bundesliga	Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 SC Freiburg	H	1.29
❌	2026-09-19	Bundesliga	Hamburger SV 2–1 1. FC Köln	A	1.13
✅	2026-09-19	Bundesliga	SV Werder Bremen 3–2 FC Augsburg	H	0.99
✅	2026-09-19	Bundesliga	VfB Stuttgart 0–1 Borussia Dortmund	A	1.01
❌	2026-09-19	Championship	Birmingham City FC 2–2 Middlesbrough FC	A	1.33
❌	2026-09-19	Championship	Burnley FC 1–1 Derby County FC	H	1.53
✅	2026-09-19	Championship	Cardiff City FC 3–1 Charlton Athletic FC	H	0.85
✅	2026-09-19	Championship	Lincoln City FC 1–2 Swansea City AFC	A	0.88
❌	2026-09-19	Championship	Millwall FC 2–2 West Ham United FC	A	1.23
❌	2026-09-19	Championship	Portsmouth FC 2–2 Blackburn Rovers FC	H	1.38
❌	2026-09-19	Championship	Queens Park Rangers FC 2–2 Preston North End FC	H	1.32
✅	2026-09-19	Championship	Stoke City FC 2–1 Sheffield United FC	H	0.93
❌	2026-09-19	Championship	Wrexham AFC 2–1 Southampton FC	A	1.29
❌	2026-09-19	Premier League	Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3–0 Arsenal FC	A	1.39
✅	2026-09-19	Premier League	Everton FC 1–0 Ipswich Town FC	H	0.64
✅	2026-09-19	Premier League	Newcastle United FC 2–1 Hull City AFC	H	0.52
❌	2026-09-19	Premier League	Nottingham Forest FC 0–1 Coventry City FC	H	1.56
❌	2026-09-19	Premier League	Tottenham Hotspur FC 2–3 Aston Villa FC	H	1.31
❌	2026-09-19	La Liga	Athletic Club 0–0 Deportivo Alavés	H	1.32
❌	2026-09-19	La Liga	CA Osasuna 1–1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid	H	1.25
✅	2026-09-19	La Liga	RC Celta de Vigo 5–0 Real Racing Club de Santander	H	0.71
✅	2026-09-19	La Liga	Sevilla FC 1–3 FC Barcelona	A	0.46
✅	2026-09-19	Ligue 1	Angers SCO 2–0 ESTAC Troyes	H	0.65
❌	2026-09-19	Ligue 1	Le Mans FC 2–1 FC Lorient	A	1.17
✅	2026-09-19	Ligue 1	Olympique Lyonnais 4–0 Stade Rennais FC 1901	H	0.72
✅	2026-09-19	Ligue 1	Paris FC 2–1 RC Strasbourg Alsace	H	0.70
✅	2026-09-19	Ligue 1	Toulouse FC 3–2 Havre AC	H	0.65
❌	2026-09-19	Serie A	AS Roma 2–2 FC Internazionale Milano	H	1.47
❌	2026-09-19	Serie A	Bologna FC 1909 1–1 Torino FC	H	1.28
❌	2026-09-19	Serie A	Udinese Calcio 0–1 Cagliari Calcio	H	1.31
✅	2026-09-19	Serie A	Venezia FC 0–2 SS Lazio	A	0.78
✅	2026-09-20	Bundesliga	Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–0 RB Leipzig	H	0.63
❌	2026-09-20	Bundesliga	FC Schalke 04 0–0 SV 07 Elversberg	H	1.25
❌	2026-09-20	Bundesliga	SC Paderborn 07 3–1 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	A	1.50
❌	2026-09-20	Championship	Norwich City FC 3–4 Bolton Wanderers FC	H	1.56
✅	2026-09-20	Championship	Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 1–0 West Bromwich Albion FC	H	0.44
❌	2026-09-20	Premier League	AFC Bournemouth 0–1 Liverpool FC	H	1.04
❌	2026-09-20	Premier League	Fulham FC 1–1 Manchester United FC	A	1.43
❌	2026-09-20	Premier League	Leeds United FC 0–0 Crystal Palace FC	H	1.29
✅	2026-09-20	Premier League	Manchester City FC 5–3 Sunderland AFC	H	0.25
❌	2026-09-20	La Liga	Club Atlético de Madrid 2–1 Real Madrid CF	A	1.50
✅	2026-09-20	La Liga	Getafe CF 1–0 Málaga CF	H	0.58
❌	2026-09-20	La Liga	RC Deportivo La Coruña 1–1 Real Betis Balompié	A	1.29
❌	2026-09-20	La Liga	Valencia CF 2–3 Real Sociedad de Fútbol	H	1.25
✅	2026-09-20	La Liga	Villarreal CF 3–1 Levante UD	H	0.58
✅	2026-09-20	Ligue 1	AJ Auxerre 2–1 Stade Brestois 29	H	1.02
❌	2026-09-20	Ligue 1	OGC Nice 2–1 Lille OSC	A	1.47
✅	2026-09-20	Ligue 1	Olympique de Marseille 1–2 Paris Saint-Germain FC	A	0.77
✅	2026-09-20	Serie A	AC Milan 3–0 US Lecce	H	0.34
❌	2026-09-20	Serie A	ACF Fiorentina 1–1 SSC Napoli	A	1.23
❌	2026-09-20	Serie A	Frosinone Calcio 2–0 Como 1907	A	1.81
✅	2026-09-20	Serie A	Juventus FC 2–0 Atalanta BC	H	0.50
✅	2026-09-20	Serie A	Parma Calcio 1913 2–1 Genoa CFC	H	1.03

🔮 Final-table forecasts

Premier League — Manchester City FC 47% for the title

Proj	Team	Pts	xPts	xPos	Title	UCL	UEL	Rel
1	Manchester City FC	15	81.4	1.9	47%	96%	3%	<1%
2	Arsenal FC	12	80.7	2.0	43%	96%	3%	<1%
3	Liverpool FC	9	67.0	4.7	5%	59%	20%	<1%
4	Brighton & Hove Albion FC	10	61.6	6.5	2%	36%	23%	1%
5	Manchester United FC	5	56.4	8.4	<1%	19%	20%	2%
6	Brentford FC	9	55.7	8.7	1%	17%	19%	3%
7	Leeds United FC	9	55.3	8.8	<1%	16%	18%	3%
8	Chelsea FC	7	53.4	9.6	<1%	12%	16%	4%
9	Newcastle United FC	8	53.4	9.6	<1%	12%	16%	5%
10	Aston Villa FC	4	52.7	9.9	<1%	11%	15%	5%
11	Everton FC	9	51.1	10.6	<1%	8%	12%	7%
12	AFC Bournemouth	3	50.9	10.7	<1%	8%	12%	7%
13	Nottingham Forest FC	5	46.9	12.4	<1%	4%	7%	14%
14	Crystal Palace FC	4	43.5	13.8	<1%	2%	4%	23%
15	Fulham FC	2	41.6	14.5	<1%	1%	3%	29%
16	Sunderland AFC	4	40.5	15.0	<1%	1%	2%	33%
17	Coventry City FC	3	39.5	15.4	<1%	1%	2%	38%
18	Ipswich Town FC	6	39.7	15.4	<1%	1%	2%	36%
19	Tottenham Hotspur FC	2	37.5	16.1	<1%	<1%	1%	45%
20	Hull City AFC	8	37.6	16.2	<1%	<1%	1%	45%

Bundesliga — FC Bayern München 65% for the title

Proj	Team	Pts	xPts	xPos	Title	UCL	UEL	Rel
1	FC Bayern München	10	74.2	1.6	65%	98%	2%	<1%
2	Borussia Dortmund	12	67.2	2.7	24%	87%	8%	<1%
3	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	7	58.5	4.9	5%	56%	20%	<1%
4	RB Leipzig	6	53.1	6.8	2%	33%	22%	2%
5	SC Freiburg	10	52.2	7.1	1%	29%	22%	2%
6	VfB Stuttgart	3	51.4	7.5	1%	26%	21%	3%
7	1. FSV Mainz 05	7	47.5	9.1	<1%	14%	16%	7%
8	SV 07 Elversberg	7	46.7	9.4	<1%	13%	15%	9%
9	FC Augsburg	7	44.9	10.2	<1%	9%	12%	12%
10	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	3	44.2	10.5	<1%	8%	12%	13%
11	Eintracht Frankfurt	5	43.9	10.7	<1%	7%	11%	14%
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	43.7	10.8	<1%	7%	11%	15%
13	SV Werder Bremen	7	42.3	11.4	<1%	5%	9%	19%
14	Hamburger SV	3	39.2	12.7	<1%	3%	6%	29%
15	FC Schalke 04	5	39.2	12.7	<1%	3%	5%	29%
16	1. FC Köln	4	37.0	13.6	<1%	2%	3%	38%
17	1. FC Union Berlin	1	33.9	14.7	<1%	1%	2%	53%
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	0	33.8	14.7	<1%	1%	2%	53%

La Liga — FC Barcelona 73% for the title

Proj	Team	Pts	xPts	xPos	Title	UCL	UEL	Rel
1	FC Barcelona	21	89.6	1.4	73%	100%	<1%	<1%
2	Real Madrid CF	15	81.7	2.2	21%	98%	2%	<1%
3	Club Atlético de Madrid	16	74.9	3.2	6%	89%	9%	<1%
4	Real Betis Balompié	16	67.4	4.6	1%	61%	26%	<1%
5	Villarreal CF	8	59.2	6.9	<1%	20%	36%	1%
6	Athletic Club	8	53.5	9.2	<1%	8%	23%	3%
7	Real Sociedad de Fútbol	10	53.2	9.3	<1%	7%	22%	3%
8	Sevilla FC	13	52.2	9.7	<1%	6%	19%	4%
9	Rayo Vallecano de Madrid	8	49.3	11.0	<1%	3%	12%	7%
10	Deportivo Alavés	11	47.9	11.7	<1%	2%	10%	9%
11	RC Celta de Vigo	7	47.5	11.8	<1%	2%	9%	10%
12	Real Racing Club de Santander	7	44.9	13.1	<1%	1%	6%	17%
13	CA Osasuna	8	44.8	13.1	<1%	1%	5%	17%
14	Levante UD	5	44.5	13.2	<1%	1%	5%	19%
15	Getafe CF	8	44.1	13.4	<1%	1%	5%	19%
16	Valencia CF	4	43.4	13.7	<1%	1%	4%	22%
17	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	7	42.7	14.1	<1%	1%	3%	24%
18	RC Deportivo La Coruña	10	41.7	14.6	<1%	<1%	3%	27%
19	Elche CF	5	41.2	14.7	<1%	<1%	2%	30%
20	Málaga CF	3	27.8	19.1	<1%	<1%	<1%	88%

Serie A — FC Internazionale Milano 65% for the title

Proj	Team	Pts	xPts	xPos	Title	UCL	UEL	Rel
1	FC Internazionale Milano	13	85.9	1.6	65%	97%	3%	<1%
2	AS Roma	13	76.7	3.2	17%	78%	14%	<1%
3	Juventus FC	10	70.5	4.6	6%	53%	26%	<1%
4	AC Milan	11	69.4	4.9	5%	48%	27%	<1%
5	SSC Napoli	7	68.4	5.2	3%	44%	29%	<1%
6	SS Lazio	13	65.5	6.0	2%	32%	28%	<1%
7	Atalanta BC	6	62.6	6.8	1%	21%	27%	<1%
8	Como 1907	10	62.6	6.8	1%	21%	26%	<1%
9	Cagliari Calcio	12	47.9	11.7	<1%	1%	4%	5%
10	Bologna FC 1909	2	47.7	11.8	<1%	1%	4%	6%
11	ACF Fiorentina	4	46.8	12.1	<1%	1%	4%	8%
12	US Sassuolo Calcio	7	46.6	12.2	<1%	1%	3%	7%
13	Frosinone Calcio	10	44.3	13.0	<1%	<1%	2%	10%
14	Torino FC	4	42.5	13.7	<1%	<1%	1%	16%
15	Udinese Calcio	4	42.3	13.7	<1%	<1%	1%	16%
16	Parma Calcio 1913	4	36.0	16.0	<1%	<1%	<1%	38%
17	US Lecce	6	35.6	16.2	<1%	<1%	<1%	40%
18	Genoa CFC	1	34.7	16.4	<1%	<1%	<1%	44%
19	AC Monza	4	34.1	16.6	<1%	<1%	<1%	47%
20	Venezia FC	0	30.9	17.6	<1%	<1%	<1%	62%

Ligue 1 — Paris Saint-Germain FC 61% for the title

Proj	Team	Pts	xPts	xPos	Title	UCL	UEL	Rel
1	Paris Saint-Germain FC	8	72.1	1.7	61%	96%	3%	<1%
2	AS Monaco FC	13	63.2	3.7	16%	71%	16%	<1%
3	Lille OSC	10	59.4	4.7	8%	55%	21%	<1%
4	Olympique Lyonnais	11	58.9	4.9	8%	53%	22%	<1%
5	Stade Rennais FC 1901	10	55.3	6.1	3%	36%	24%	1%
6	Paris FC	11	51.6	7.4	1%	22%	21%	2%
7	Racing Club de Lens	4	51.4	7.5	1%	21%	22%	2%
8	RC Strasbourg Alsace	7	51.0	7.7	1%	19%	21%	2%
9	Olympique de Marseille	3	48.4	8.7	<1%	13%	17%	4%
10	FC Lorient	5	41.9	11.3	<1%	4%	7%	14%
11	Toulouse FC	5	41.8	11.3	<1%	3%	7%	14%
12	Stade Brestois 29	5	39.6	12.2	<1%	2%	5%	20%
13	OGC Nice	5	39.7	12.2	<1%	2%	5%	20%
14	AJ Auxerre	6	37.8	12.9	<1%	1%	3%	27%
15	Angers SCO	7	35.1	14.0	<1%	1%	2%	38%
16	ESTAC Troyes	4	34.4	14.2	<1%	<1%	1%	42%
17	Le Mans FC	6	32.4	14.9	<1%	<1%	1%	52%
18	Havre AC	2	30.3	15.5	<1%	<1%	<1%	62%

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (30,000 replays of the remaining fixtures with live in-sim Elo). Proj = projected finish ordered by expected position; xPts / xPos = expected points and position; UCL = top 4, UEL = 5th–6th, Rel = bottom 3.

🇺🇸 MLS — Shield, playoffs and MLS Cup

Eastern Conference — Inter Miami CF 28% to reach MLS Cup

Seed	Team	Pts	xPts	Playoffs	1 seed	Conf	Cup	Shield
1.1	Nashville SC	53	69.7	100%	88%	26%	16%	72%
2.2	Inter Miami CF	44	62.4	100%	11%	28%	16%	8%
4.0	Chicago Fire FC	39	55.0	100%	1%	10%	5%	<1%
4.6	Charlotte FC	39	53.2	99%	<1%	10%	4%	<1%
4.7	New England Revolution	40	52.5	99%	<1%	6%	2%	<1%
6.8	FC Cincinnati	31	48.0	89%	<1%	6%	3%	<1%
7.7	Orlando City SC	31	45.7	79%	<1%	4%	2%	<1%
8.0	Philadelphia Union	30	45.0	75%	<1%	5%	2%	<1%
8.8	New York City FC	29	43.7	63%	<1%	3%	1%	<1%
10.7	Toronto FC	29	40.5	30%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%
11.0	D.C. United	28	39.8	25%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
11.1	New York Red Bulls	27	39.3	24%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%
11.9	Columbus Crew	23	37.2	14%	<1%	0%	<1%	<1%
13.5	Atlanta United FC	22	33.2	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
14.1	CF Montréal	21	31.7	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Western Conference — Vancouver Whitecaps FC 30% to reach MLS Cup

Seed	Team	Pts	xPts	Playoffs	1 seed	Conf	Cup	Shield
1.4	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	46	64.2	100%	76%	30%	17%	19%
3.1	Houston Dynamo FC	43	57.7	100%	12%	13%	6%	1%
3.6	FC Dallas	40	56.4	99%	7%	13%	6%	<1%
4.1	Los Angeles FC	40	55.0	99%	4%	18%	9%	<1%
5.6	St. Louis City SC	38	52.1	94%	1%	7%	3%	<1%
5.7	San Jose Earthquakes	38	51.4	93%	1%	5%	2%	<1%
8.8	Portland Timbers	32	45.7	61%	<1%	3%	1%	<1%
9.0	Colorado Rapids	32	45.0	56%	<1%	2%	1%	<1%
9.5	Real Salt Lake	29	44.4	48%	<1%	2%	1%	<1%
9.8	San Diego FC	30	44.0	45%	<1%	2%	1%	<1%
9.9	Seattle Sounders FC	27	44.0	43%	<1%	2%	1%	<1%
10.2	Minnesota United FC	29	43.5	37%	<1%	2%	1%	<1%
11.6	LA Galaxy	29	40.8	17%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%
12.9	Austin FC	26	37.8	6%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
14.9	Sporting Kansas City	15	25.5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

153 regular-season matches left, replayed 20,000 times with live in-sim Elo, then the full playoff bracket each time. Seed = expected conference finish; 1 seed = finishing top of the conference; Conf = reaching MLS Cup; Shield = best record in the league. MLS publishes no machine-readable fixture list, so the run-in is reconstructed from the league's format: 128 conference fixtures are exact, and the 25 cross-conference ones are known only as per-club home/away counts, so every replay draws its own pairing of them.

Glued club Elo (top-5 leagues + UEFA cross-play) with a squad-economics outcome model · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/soccer