Soccer Update
Run date 2026-09-30 · fixtures for the next 7 days, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts for the top 5 leagues.
📅 Games this week
No league fixtures in the coming week.
📈 Model performance
Rolling tracker
| Window | Graded | Pick accuracy | Log loss |
|---|
| Last 7 days | 0 | — | — |
| Last 30 days | 216 | 46.8% | 1.0312 |
| Season to date | 306 | 48.4% | 1.0152 |
Season record by league
| League | Graded | Pick accuracy | Log loss |
|---|
| Bundesliga | 36 | 50.0% | 0.9618 |
| Championship | 82 | 43.9% | 1.0730 |
| Premier League | 49 | 40.8% | 1.0547 |
| La Liga | 58 | 50.0% | 0.9553 |
| Ligue 1 | 35 | 48.6% | 1.0746 |
| Serie A | 46 | 60.9% | 0.9422 |
No matches graded in the past week.
🔮 Final-table forecasts
Premier League — Manchester City FC 47% for the title
| Proj | Team | Pts | xPts | xPos | Title | UCL | UEL | Rel |
|---|
| 1 | Manchester City FC | 15 | 81.5 | 1.9 | 47% | 96% | 3% | <1% |
| 2 | Arsenal FC | 12 | 80.8 | 2.0 | 44% | 96% | 3% | <1% |
| 3 | Liverpool FC | 9 | 67.1 | 4.7 | 5% | 59% | 20% | <1% |
| 4 | Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 10 | 61.5 | 6.5 | 2% | 36% | 22% | 1% |
| 5 | Manchester United FC | 5 | 56.4 | 8.3 | <1% | 19% | 20% | 2% |
| 6 | Brentford FC | 9 | 55.9 | 8.6 | 1% | 18% | 18% | 3% |
| 7 | Leeds United FC | 9 | 55.3 | 8.8 | 0% | 16% | 18% | 3% |
| 8 | Chelsea FC | 7 | 53.4 | 9.6 | <1% | 12% | 16% | 4% |
| 9 | Newcastle United FC | 8 | 53.3 | 9.6 | <1% | 12% | 16% | 5% |
| 10 | Aston Villa FC | 4 | 52.8 | 9.8 | <1% | 11% | 15% | 5% |
| 11 | Everton FC | 9 | 51.1 | 10.6 | <1% | 8% | 12% | 6% |
| 12 | AFC Bournemouth | 3 | 50.9 | 10.6 | <1% | 8% | 12% | 7% |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest FC | 5 | 46.9 | 12.4 | <1% | 4% | 8% | 14% |
| 14 | Crystal Palace FC | 4 | 43.5 | 13.8 | <1% | 2% | 4% | 23% |
| 15 | Fulham FC | 2 | 41.6 | 14.5 | <1% | 1% | 3% | 29% |
| 16 | Sunderland AFC | 4 | 40.4 | 15.0 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 34% |
| 17 | Coventry City FC | 3 | 39.5 | 15.4 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 37% |
| 18 | Ipswich Town FC | 6 | 39.5 | 15.4 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 37% |
| 19 | Tottenham Hotspur FC | 2 | 37.5 | 16.1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 45% |
| 20 | Hull City AFC | 8 | 37.6 | 16.2 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 45% |
Bundesliga — FC Bayern München 65% for the title
| Proj | Team | Pts | xPts | xPos | Title | UCL | UEL | Rel |
|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München | 10 | 74.1 | 1.6 | 65% | 98% | 2% | <1% |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 12 | 67.3 | 2.7 | 25% | 88% | 8% | <1% |
| 3 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 7 | 58.4 | 4.9 | 5% | 56% | 20% | <1% |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 6 | 53.1 | 6.8 | 2% | 32% | 23% | 2% |
| 5 | SC Freiburg | 10 | 52.2 | 7.1 | 1% | 29% | 21% | 3% |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 51.3 | 7.5 | 1% | 26% | 21% | 3% |
| 7 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | 47.4 | 9.1 | <1% | 14% | 17% | 7% |
| 8 | SV 07 Elversberg | 7 | 46.8 | 9.4 | <1% | 13% | 15% | 8% |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | 44.9 | 10.3 | <1% | 9% | 12% | 12% |
| 10 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 44.2 | 10.5 | <1% | 8% | 12% | 14% |
| 11 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 43.9 | 10.7 | <1% | 7% | 11% | 14% |
| 12 | SC Paderborn 07 | 4 | 43.7 | 10.7 | <1% | 7% | 11% | 15% |
| 13 | SV Werder Bremen | 7 | 42.4 | 11.3 | <1% | 5% | 9% | 18% |
| 14 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 39.3 | 12.7 | <1% | 3% | 5% | 29% |
| 15 | Hamburger SV | 3 | 39.1 | 12.7 | <1% | 3% | 5% | 30% |
| 16 | 1. FC Köln | 4 | 37.0 | 13.6 | <1% | 1% | 3% | 38% |
| 17 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 1 | 33.9 | 14.7 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 53% |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0 | 33.8 | 14.8 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 53% |
La Liga — FC Barcelona 72% for the title
| Proj | Team | Pts | xPts | xPos | Title | UCL | UEL | Rel |
|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 21 | 89.5 | 1.4 | 72% | 100% | <1% | <1% |
| 2 | Real Madrid CF | 15 | 81.7 | 2.2 | 21% | 98% | 2% | <1% |
| 3 | Club Atlético de Madrid | 16 | 75.1 | 3.2 | 6% | 89% | 9% | <1% |
| 4 | Real Betis Balompié | 16 | 67.4 | 4.6 | 1% | 60% | 26% | <1% |
| 5 | Villarreal CF | 8 | 59.3 | 6.9 | <1% | 20% | 36% | <1% |
| 6 | Athletic Club | 8 | 53.5 | 9.1 | <1% | 8% | 22% | 3% |
| 7 | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 10 | 53.1 | 9.3 | <1% | 7% | 21% | 3% |
| 8 | Sevilla FC | 13 | 52.1 | 9.7 | <1% | 5% | 19% | 3% |
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 8 | 49.3 | 11.0 | <1% | 3% | 12% | 8% |
| 10 | Deportivo Alavés | 11 | 48.0 | 11.6 | <1% | 2% | 9% | 9% |
| 11 | RC Celta de Vigo | 7 | 47.6 | 11.8 | <1% | 2% | 9% | 10% |
| 12 | Real Racing Club de Santander | 7 | 44.8 | 13.1 | <1% | 1% | 5% | 17% |
| 13 | CA Osasuna | 8 | 44.7 | 13.1 | <1% | 1% | 5% | 17% |
| 14 | Levante UD | 5 | 44.4 | 13.2 | <1% | 1% | 5% | 19% |
| 15 | Getafe CF | 8 | 44.1 | 13.4 | <1% | 1% | 5% | 19% |
| 16 | Valencia CF | 4 | 43.5 | 13.7 | <1% | 1% | 4% | 21% |
| 17 | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | 7 | 42.7 | 14.1 | <1% | 1% | 3% | 24% |
| 18 | RC Deportivo La Coruña | 10 | 41.7 | 14.5 | <1% | <1% | 3% | 27% |
| 19 | Elche CF | 5 | 41.0 | 14.8 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 30% |
| 20 | Málaga CF | 3 | 27.8 | 19.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 88% |
Serie A — FC Internazionale Milano 65% for the title
| Proj | Team | Pts | xPts | xPos | Title | UCL | UEL | Rel |
|---|
| 1 | FC Internazionale Milano | 13 | 85.8 | 1.6 | 65% | 97% | 3% | <1% |
| 2 | AS Roma | 13 | 76.8 | 3.2 | 17% | 79% | 15% | <1% |
| 3 | Juventus FC | 10 | 70.5 | 4.6 | 6% | 53% | 26% | <1% |
| 4 | AC Milan | 11 | 69.5 | 4.9 | 5% | 48% | 28% | <1% |
| 5 | SSC Napoli | 7 | 68.4 | 5.2 | 3% | 43% | 29% | <1% |
| 6 | SS Lazio | 13 | 65.5 | 6.0 | 2% | 31% | 28% | <1% |
| 7 | Atalanta BC | 6 | 62.7 | 6.8 | 1% | 21% | 27% | <1% |
| 8 | Como 1907 | 10 | 62.5 | 6.9 | 1% | 21% | 25% | <1% |
| 9 | Cagliari Calcio | 12 | 47.9 | 11.7 | <1% | 1% | 4% | 5% |
| 10 | Bologna FC 1909 | 2 | 47.8 | 11.7 | <1% | 1% | 4% | 6% |
| 11 | ACF Fiorentina | 4 | 46.7 | 12.1 | <1% | 1% | 3% | 7% |
| 12 | US Sassuolo Calcio | 7 | 46.5 | 12.2 | <1% | 1% | 3% | 7% |
| 13 | Frosinone Calcio | 10 | 44.3 | 13.0 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 10% |
| 14 | Torino FC | 4 | 42.4 | 13.7 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 16% |
| 15 | Udinese Calcio | 4 | 42.3 | 13.7 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 16% |
| 16 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 4 | 35.9 | 16.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 39% |
| 17 | US Lecce | 6 | 35.5 | 16.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 40% |
| 18 | Genoa CFC | 1 | 34.6 | 16.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 44% |
| 19 | AC Monza | 4 | 34.1 | 16.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 47% |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 0 | 30.8 | 17.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 62% |
Ligue 1 — Paris Saint-Germain FC 61% for the title
| Proj | Team | Pts | xPts | xPos | Title | UCL | UEL | Rel |
|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain FC | 8 | 72.0 | 1.7 | 61% | 96% | 3% | <1% |
| 2 | AS Monaco FC | 13 | 63.2 | 3.7 | 16% | 71% | 16% | <1% |
| 3 | Lille OSC | 10 | 59.4 | 4.7 | 8% | 55% | 22% | <1% |
| 4 | Olympique Lyonnais | 11 | 58.9 | 4.9 | 8% | 53% | 22% | <1% |
| 5 | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | 10 | 55.3 | 6.1 | 3% | 36% | 24% | 1% |
| 6 | Paris FC | 11 | 51.7 | 7.4 | 2% | 22% | 21% | 2% |
| 7 | Racing Club de Lens | 4 | 51.4 | 7.5 | 1% | 21% | 22% | 2% |
| 8 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 7 | 51.0 | 7.7 | 1% | 20% | 21% | 2% |
| 9 | Olympique de Marseille | 3 | 48.3 | 8.7 | <1% | 13% | 17% | 4% |
| 10 | FC Lorient | 5 | 42.0 | 11.3 | <1% | 4% | 7% | 14% |
| 11 | Toulouse FC | 5 | 41.9 | 11.3 | <1% | 3% | 7% | 14% |
| 12 | OGC Nice | 5 | 39.6 | 12.2 | <1% | 2% | 5% | 21% |
| 13 | Stade Brestois 29 | 5 | 39.6 | 12.2 | <1% | 2% | 5% | 20% |
| 14 | AJ Auxerre | 6 | 37.9 | 12.9 | <1% | 1% | 3% | 27% |
| 15 | Angers SCO | 7 | 35.2 | 14.0 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 38% |
| 16 | ESTAC Troyes | 4 | 34.3 | 14.3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 42% |
| 17 | Le Mans FC | 6 | 32.5 | 14.9 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 52% |
| 18 | Havre AC | 2 | 30.4 | 15.5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 62% |
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (30,000 replays of the remaining fixtures with live in-sim Elo). Proj = projected finish ordered by expected position; xPts / xPos = expected points and position; UCL = top 4, UEL = 5th–6th, Rel = bottom 3.
🇺🇸 MLS — Shield, playoffs and MLS Cup
Eastern Conference — Nashville SC 27% to reach MLS Cup
| Seed | Team | Pts | xPts | Playoffs | 1 seed | Conf | Cup | Shield |
|---|
| 1.0 | Nashville SC | 57 | 70.9 | 100% | 98% | 27% | 17% | 87% |
| 2.5 | Inter Miami CF | 46 | 60.4 | 100% | 2% | 25% | 15% | 1% |
| 3.5 | New England Revolution | 46 | 56.3 | 100% | <1% | 8% | 4% | <1% |
| 4.1 | Charlotte FC | 43 | 54.7 | 100% | <1% | 11% | 5% | <1% |
| 5.3 | Chicago Fire FC | 39 | 51.7 | 98% | <1% | 7% | 3% | <1% |
| 6.5 | Philadelphia Union | 36 | 48.7 | 94% | <1% | 9% | 4% | <1% |
| 7.6 | FC Cincinnati | 33 | 47.0 | 82% | <1% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 8.0 | Orlando City SC | 34 | 45.5 | 77% | <1% | 4% | 2% | <1% |
| 9.0 | New York Red Bulls | 33 | 43.8 | 59% | <1% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| 9.1 | New York City FC | 32 | 43.7 | 58% | <1% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| 11.9 | Toronto FC | 29 | 38.3 | 10% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 12.1 | Columbus Crew | 26 | 37.0 | 8% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 12.1 | D.C. United | 29 | 37.7 | 9% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 12.7 | Atlanta United FC | 26 | 35.6 | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 14.7 | CF Montréal | 21 | 29.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Western Conference — Vancouver Whitecaps FC 31% to reach MLS Cup
| Seed | Team | Pts | xPts | Playoffs | 1 seed | Conf | Cup | Shield |
|---|
| 1.3 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 49 | 63.5 | 100% | 80% | 31% | 18% | 11% |
| 3.4 | FC Dallas | 44 | 56.7 | 100% | 7% | 14% | 6% | <1% |
| 3.6 | Houston Dynamo FC | 44 | 55.8 | 100% | 6% | 12% | 5% | <1% |
| 3.9 | St. Louis City SC | 44 | 55.3 | 100% | 5% | 10% | 4% | <1% |
| 4.8 | San Jose Earthquakes | 42 | 53.0 | 99% | 1% | 7% | 3% | <1% |
| 5.1 | Los Angeles FC | 41 | 52.4 | 99% | 1% | 15% | 7% | <1% |
| 8.1 | Colorado Rapids | 36 | 46.0 | 76% | <1% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| 9.0 | Seattle Sounders FC | 32 | 45.0 | 62% | <1% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| 10.1 | Portland Timbers | 32 | 42.5 | 41% | <1% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| 10.4 | LA Galaxy | 33 | 42.6 | 36% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 10.6 | San Diego FC | 31 | 41.8 | 32% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 11.5 | Austin FC | 30 | 40.7 | 21% | <1% | 0% | <1% | <1% |
| 11.7 | Minnesota United FC | 29 | 40.1 | 17% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 11.7 | Real Salt Lake | 29 | 39.7 | 17% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 14.9 | Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 26.7 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
122 regular-season matches left, replayed 20,000 times with live in-sim Elo, then the full playoff bracket each time. Seed = expected conference finish; 1 seed = finishing top of the conference; Conf = reaching MLS Cup; Shield = best record in the league. MLS publishes no machine-readable fixture list, so the run-in is reconstructed from the league's format: 105 conference fixtures are exact, and the 17 cross-conference ones are known only as per-club home/away counts, so every replay draws its own pairing of them.
Glued club Elo (top-5 leagues + UEFA cross-play) with a squad-economics outcome model · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/soccer