Soccer Update

Run date 2026-10-03 · fixtures for the next 7 days, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts for the top 5 leagues.

📅 Games this week

Bundesliga

Date	Match	H / D / A	Pick	Proj score
2026-10-09	Borussia Dortmund v SV Werder Bremen	75% / 14% / 11%	Borussia Dortmund	2–0 (10%)

Championship

Date	Match	H / D / A	Pick	Proj score
2026-10-09	West Ham United FC v Queens Park Rangers FC	68% / 19% / 12%	West Ham United FC	1–0 (14%)

La Liga

Date	Match	H / D / A	Pick	Proj score
2026-10-09	Málaga CF v RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	25% / 28% / 47%	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	0–1 (10%)

Ligue 1

Date	Match	H / D / A	Pick	Proj score
2026-10-09	Racing Club de Lens v Olympique Lyonnais	49% / 23% / 27%	Racing Club de Lens	1–0 (9%)

📊 This week against trend

4 fixtures · 6 clubs with enough history to compare. Each club is measured against its own mean in completed seasons before 2026-27, not against a league average.

The slate as a whole

Metric	This week	Club norm	Diff	Direction
PPDA (pressing)	13.07	10.80	+2.27	↑ worse
Deep completions allowed	6.88	5.63	+1.25	↑ worse
npxG conceded	1.44	1.25	+0.20	↑ worse
xG conceded	1.54	1.36	+0.18	↑ worse
npxG created	1.52	1.37	+0.15	↑ better
xG per shot	0.123	0.116	+0.007	↑ better
xG created	1.61	1.49	+0.12	↑ better
Deep completions	7.07	6.48	+0.59	↑ better
Deep share	0.506	0.532	-0.026	↓ worse
Expected points	1.42	1.46	-0.04	↓ worse

Furthest from their own norm

Club	Metric	Now	Norm	Direction	Fixture
Málaga CF	Deep completions allowed	9.44	5.45	↑ worse	Málaga CF v RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
Málaga CF	xG conceded	1.95	1.36	↑ worse	Málaga CF v RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
Málaga CF	npxG conceded	1.78	1.25	↑ worse	Málaga CF v RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
Olympique Lyonnais	PPDA (pressing)	14.35	9.59	↑ worse	Racing Club de Lens v Olympique Lyonnais
Racing Club de Lens	xG created	2.24	1.62	↑ better	Racing Club de Lens v Olympique Lyonnais
Racing Club de Lens	npxG created	2.05	1.47	↑ better	Racing Club de Lens v Olympique Lyonnais
Málaga CF	PPDA (pressing)	13.10	8.73	↑ worse	Málaga CF v RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
Málaga CF	Deep share	0.275	0.458	↓ worse	Málaga CF v RCD Espanyol de Barcelona

"Now" is the exponentially weighted form the model actually used, which early in a season still carries the back end of the last one. Rows are ranked by how large the gap is relative to how much clubs differ on that metric at all, so an xG swing and a PPDA swing are comparable. A club with fewer than 20 prior-season matches has no norm and is left out rather than compared against someone else's.

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

Window	Graded	Pick accuracy	Log loss
Last 7 days	0	—	—
Last 30 days	199	46.2%	1.0402
Season to date	306	48.4%	1.0152

Season record by league

League	Graded	Pick accuracy	Log loss
Bundesliga	36	50.0%	0.9618
Championship	82	43.9%	1.0730
Premier League	49	40.8%	1.0547
La Liga	58	50.0%	0.9553
Ligue 1	35	48.6%	1.0746
Serie A	46	60.9%	0.9422

No matches graded in the past week.

🔮 Final-table forecasts

Premier League — Manchester City FC 47% for the title

Proj	Team	Pts	xPts	xPos	Title	UCL	UEL	Rel
1	Manchester City FC	15	81.5	1.9	47%	96%	3%	<1%
2	Arsenal FC	12	80.8	2.0	44%	96%	3%	<1%
3	Liverpool FC	9	67.1	4.7	5%	59%	20%	<1%
4	Brighton & Hove Albion FC	10	61.5	6.5	2%	36%	22%	1%
5	Manchester United FC	5	56.4	8.3	<1%	19%	20%	2%
6	Brentford FC	9	55.9	8.6	1%	18%	18%	3%
7	Leeds United FC	9	55.3	8.8	0%	16%	18%	3%
8	Chelsea FC	7	53.4	9.6	<1%	12%	16%	4%
9	Newcastle United FC	8	53.3	9.6	<1%	12%	16%	5%
10	Aston Villa FC	4	52.8	9.8	<1%	11%	15%	5%
11	Everton FC	9	51.1	10.6	<1%	8%	12%	6%
12	AFC Bournemouth	3	50.9	10.6	<1%	8%	12%	7%
13	Nottingham Forest FC	5	46.9	12.4	<1%	4%	8%	14%
14	Crystal Palace FC	4	43.5	13.8	<1%	2%	4%	23%
15	Fulham FC	2	41.6	14.5	<1%	1%	3%	29%
16	Sunderland AFC	4	40.4	15.0	<1%	1%	2%	34%
17	Coventry City FC	3	39.5	15.4	<1%	1%	2%	37%
18	Ipswich Town FC	6	39.5	15.4	<1%	1%	2%	37%
19	Tottenham Hotspur FC	2	37.5	16.1	<1%	<1%	1%	45%
20	Hull City AFC	8	37.6	16.2	<1%	<1%	1%	45%

Bundesliga — FC Bayern München 65% for the title

Proj	Team	Pts	xPts	xPos	Title	UCL	UEL	Rel
1	FC Bayern München	10	74.1	1.6	65%	98%	2%	<1%
2	Borussia Dortmund	12	67.3	2.7	25%	88%	8%	<1%
3	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	7	58.4	4.9	5%	56%	20%	<1%
4	RB Leipzig	6	53.1	6.8	2%	32%	23%	2%
5	SC Freiburg	10	52.2	7.1	1%	29%	21%	3%
6	VfB Stuttgart	3	51.3	7.5	1%	26%	21%	3%
7	1. FSV Mainz 05	7	47.4	9.1	<1%	14%	17%	7%
8	SV 07 Elversberg	7	46.8	9.4	<1%	13%	15%	8%
9	FC Augsburg	7	44.9	10.3	<1%	9%	12%	12%
10	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	3	44.2	10.5	<1%	8%	12%	14%
11	Eintracht Frankfurt	5	43.9	10.7	<1%	7%	11%	14%
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	43.7	10.7	<1%	7%	11%	15%
13	SV Werder Bremen	7	42.4	11.3	<1%	5%	9%	18%
14	FC Schalke 04	5	39.3	12.7	<1%	3%	5%	29%
15	Hamburger SV	3	39.1	12.7	<1%	3%	5%	30%
16	1. FC Köln	4	37.0	13.6	<1%	1%	3%	38%
17	1. FC Union Berlin	1	33.9	14.7	<1%	1%	2%	53%
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	0	33.8	14.8	<1%	1%	2%	53%

La Liga — FC Barcelona 72% for the title

Proj	Team	Pts	xPts	xPos	Title	UCL	UEL	Rel
1	FC Barcelona	21	89.5	1.4	72%	100%	<1%	<1%
2	Real Madrid CF	15	81.7	2.2	21%	98%	2%	<1%
3	Club Atlético de Madrid	16	75.1	3.2	6%	89%	9%	<1%
4	Real Betis Balompié	16	67.4	4.6	1%	60%	26%	<1%
5	Villarreal CF	8	59.3	6.9	<1%	20%	36%	<1%
6	Athletic Club	8	53.5	9.1	<1%	8%	22%	3%
7	Real Sociedad de Fútbol	10	53.1	9.3	<1%	7%	21%	3%
8	Sevilla FC	13	52.1	9.7	<1%	5%	19%	3%
9	Rayo Vallecano de Madrid	8	49.3	11.0	<1%	3%	12%	8%
10	Deportivo Alavés	11	48.0	11.6	<1%	2%	9%	9%
11	RC Celta de Vigo	7	47.6	11.8	<1%	2%	9%	10%
12	Real Racing Club de Santander	7	44.8	13.1	<1%	1%	5%	17%
13	CA Osasuna	8	44.7	13.1	<1%	1%	5%	17%
14	Levante UD	5	44.4	13.2	<1%	1%	5%	19%
15	Getafe CF	8	44.1	13.4	<1%	1%	5%	19%
16	Valencia CF	4	43.5	13.7	<1%	1%	4%	21%
17	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	7	42.7	14.1	<1%	1%	3%	24%
18	RC Deportivo La Coruña	10	41.7	14.5	<1%	<1%	3%	27%
19	Elche CF	5	41.0	14.8	<1%	<1%	2%	30%
20	Málaga CF	3	27.8	19.1	<1%	<1%	<1%	88%

Serie A — FC Internazionale Milano 65% for the title

Proj	Team	Pts	xPts	xPos	Title	UCL	UEL	Rel
1	FC Internazionale Milano	13	85.8	1.6	65%	97%	3%	<1%
2	AS Roma	13	76.8	3.2	17%	79%	15%	<1%
3	Juventus FC	10	70.5	4.6	6%	53%	26%	<1%
4	AC Milan	11	69.5	4.9	5%	48%	28%	<1%
5	SSC Napoli	7	68.4	5.2	3%	43%	29%	<1%
6	SS Lazio	13	65.5	6.0	2%	31%	28%	<1%
7	Atalanta BC	6	62.7	6.8	1%	21%	27%	<1%
8	Como 1907	10	62.5	6.9	1%	21%	25%	<1%
9	Cagliari Calcio	12	47.9	11.7	<1%	1%	4%	5%
10	Bologna FC 1909	2	47.8	11.7	<1%	1%	4%	6%
11	ACF Fiorentina	4	46.7	12.1	<1%	1%	3%	7%
12	US Sassuolo Calcio	7	46.5	12.2	<1%	1%	3%	7%
13	Frosinone Calcio	10	44.3	13.0	<1%	<1%	2%	10%
14	Torino FC	4	42.4	13.7	<1%	<1%	1%	16%
15	Udinese Calcio	4	42.3	13.7	<1%	<1%	1%	16%
16	Parma Calcio 1913	4	35.9	16.0	<1%	<1%	<1%	39%
17	US Lecce	6	35.5	16.2	<1%	<1%	<1%	40%
18	Genoa CFC	1	34.6	16.4	<1%	<1%	<1%	44%
19	AC Monza	4	34.1	16.6	<1%	<1%	<1%	47%
20	Venezia FC	0	30.8	17.6	<1%	<1%	<1%	62%

Ligue 1 — Paris Saint-Germain FC 61% for the title

Proj	Team	Pts	xPts	xPos	Title	UCL	UEL	Rel
1	Paris Saint-Germain FC	8	72.0	1.7	61%	96%	3%	<1%
2	AS Monaco FC	13	63.2	3.7	16%	71%	16%	<1%
3	Lille OSC	10	59.4	4.7	8%	55%	22%	<1%
4	Olympique Lyonnais	11	58.9	4.9	8%	53%	22%	<1%
5	Stade Rennais FC 1901	10	55.3	6.1	3%	36%	24%	1%
6	Paris FC	11	51.7	7.4	2%	22%	21%	2%
7	Racing Club de Lens	4	51.4	7.5	1%	21%	22%	2%
8	RC Strasbourg Alsace	7	51.0	7.7	1%	20%	21%	2%
9	Olympique de Marseille	3	48.3	8.7	<1%	13%	17%	4%
10	FC Lorient	5	42.0	11.3	<1%	4%	7%	14%
11	Toulouse FC	5	41.9	11.3	<1%	3%	7%	14%
12	OGC Nice	5	39.6	12.2	<1%	2%	5%	21%
13	Stade Brestois 29	5	39.6	12.2	<1%	2%	5%	20%
14	AJ Auxerre	6	37.9	12.9	<1%	1%	3%	27%
15	Angers SCO	7	35.2	14.0	<1%	<1%	2%	38%
16	ESTAC Troyes	4	34.3	14.3	<1%	<1%	1%	42%
17	Le Mans FC	6	32.5	14.9	<1%	<1%	1%	52%
18	Havre AC	2	30.4	15.5	<1%	<1%	<1%	62%

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (30,000 replays of the remaining fixtures with live in-sim Elo). Proj = projected finish ordered by expected position; xPts / xPos = expected points and position; UCL = top 4, UEL = 5th–6th, Rel = bottom 3.

🇺🇸 MLS — Shield, playoffs and MLS Cup

Eastern Conference — Nashville SC 27% to reach MLS Cup

Seed	Team	Pts	xPts	Playoffs	1 seed	Conf	Cup	Shield
1.0	Nashville SC	57	70.9	100%	98%	27%	17%	87%
2.5	Inter Miami CF	46	60.4	100%	2%	25%	15%	1%
3.5	New England Revolution	46	56.3	100%	<1%	8%	4%	<1%
4.1	Charlotte FC	43	54.7	100%	<1%	11%	5%	<1%
5.3	Chicago Fire FC	39	51.7	98%	<1%	7%	3%	<1%
6.5	Philadelphia Union	36	48.7	94%	<1%	9%	4%	<1%
7.6	FC Cincinnati	33	47.0	82%	<1%	5%	2%	<1%
8.0	Orlando City SC	34	45.5	77%	<1%	4%	2%	<1%
9.0	New York Red Bulls	33	43.8	59%	<1%	2%	1%	<1%
9.1	New York City FC	32	43.7	58%	<1%	2%	1%	<1%
11.9	Toronto FC	29	38.3	10%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
12.1	Columbus Crew	26	37.0	8%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
12.1	D.C. United	29	37.7	9%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
12.7	Atlanta United FC	26	35.6	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
14.7	CF Montréal	21	29.3	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Western Conference — Vancouver Whitecaps FC 31% to reach MLS Cup

Seed	Team	Pts	xPts	Playoffs	1 seed	Conf	Cup	Shield
1.3	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	49	63.5	100%	80%	31%	18%	11%
3.4	FC Dallas	44	56.7	100%	7%	14%	6%	<1%
3.6	Houston Dynamo FC	44	55.8	100%	6%	12%	5%	<1%
3.9	St. Louis City SC	44	55.3	100%	5%	10%	4%	<1%
4.8	San Jose Earthquakes	42	53.0	99%	1%	7%	3%	<1%
5.1	Los Angeles FC	41	52.4	99%	1%	15%	7%	<1%
8.1	Colorado Rapids	36	46.0	76%	<1%	3%	1%	<1%
9.0	Seattle Sounders FC	32	45.0	62%	<1%	3%	1%	<1%
10.1	Portland Timbers	32	42.5	41%	<1%	2%	1%	<1%
10.4	LA Galaxy	33	42.6	36%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%
10.6	San Diego FC	31	41.8	32%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%
11.5	Austin FC	30	40.7	21%	<1%	0%	<1%	<1%
11.7	Minnesota United FC	29	40.1	17%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%
11.7	Real Salt Lake	29	39.7	17%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
14.9	Sporting Kansas City	18	26.7	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

122 regular-season matches left, replayed 20,000 times with live in-sim Elo, then the full playoff bracket each time. Seed = expected conference finish; 1 seed = finishing top of the conference; Conf = reaching MLS Cup; Shield = best record in the league. MLS publishes no machine-readable fixture list, so the run-in is reconstructed from the league's format: 105 conference fixtures are exact, and the 17 cross-conference ones are known only as per-club home/away counts, so every replay draws its own pairing of them.

Glued club Elo (top-5 leagues + UEFA cross-play) with a squad-economics outcome model · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/soccer