Soccer Update

Run date 2026-10-06 · fixtures for the next 7 days, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts for the top 5 leagues.

📅 Games this week

Bundesliga

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-09Borussia Dortmund v SV Werder Bremen75% / 14% / 11%Borussia Dortmund2–0 (10%)
2026-10-101. FC Union Berlin v SV 07 Elversberg39% / 33% / 28%1. FC Union Berlin2–1 (8%)
2026-10-101. FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer 04 Leverkusen36% / 27% / 37%Bayer 04 Leverkusen1–2 (9%)
2026-10-10FC Augsburg v FC Bayern München14% / 19% / 68%FC Bayern München1–2 (10%)
2026-10-10RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt61% / 20% / 19%RB Leipzig2–1 (10%)
2026-10-10SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart22% / 27% / 51%VfB Stuttgart1–2 (8%)
2026-10-10TSG 1899 Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV76% / 14% / 10%TSG 1899 Hoffenheim2–1 (10%)
2026-10-111. FC Köln v Borussia Mönchengladbach51% / 27% / 21%1. FC Köln2–1 (9%)
2026-10-11SC Freiburg v FC Schalke 0462% / 24% / 14%SC Freiburg2–1 (10%)

Championship

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-09West Ham United FC v Queens Park Rangers FC68% / 19% / 12%West Ham United FC1–0 (14%)
2026-10-10Blackburn Rovers FC v Cardiff City FC49% / 27% / 24%Blackburn Rovers FC1–0 (12%)
2026-10-10Bolton Wanderers FC v Stoke City FC35% / 29% / 36%Stoke City FC0–1 (8%)
2026-10-10Charlton Athletic FC v Bristol City FC35% / 31% / 34%Charlton Athletic FC1–0 (10%)
2026-10-10Derby County FC v Wrexham AFC38% / 28% / 35%Derby County FC1–0 (11%)
2026-10-10Middlesbrough FC v Wolverhampton Wanderers FC39% / 24% / 37%Middlesbrough FC1–0 (11%)
2026-10-10Preston North End FC v Millwall FC37% / 29% / 34%Preston North End FC1–0 (8%)
2026-10-10Sheffield United FC v Lincoln City FC64% / 20% / 15%Sheffield United FC2–0 (15%)
2026-10-10Swansea City AFC v Norwich City FC42% / 26% / 32%Swansea City AFC1–0 (11%)
2026-10-10Watford FC v Burnley FC32% / 26% / 42%Burnley FC0–1 (10%)
2026-10-10West Bromwich Albion FC v Birmingham City FC37% / 27% / 37%Birmingham City FC0–1 (8%)
2026-10-11Southampton FC v Portsmouth FC61% / 23% / 17%Southampton FC1–0 (13%)

La Liga

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-09Málaga CF v RCD Espanyol de Barcelona25% / 28% / 47%RCD Espanyol de Barcelona0–1 (10%)
2026-10-10Deportivo Alavés v Club Atlético de Madrid27% / 23% / 50%Club Atlético de Madrid0–1 (11%)
2026-10-10FC Barcelona v Getafe CF85% / 10% / 6%FC Barcelona2–0 (16%)
2026-10-10Rayo Vallecano de Madrid v Athletic Club33% / 31% / 37%Athletic Club0–1 (8%)
2026-10-10Real Madrid CF v Villarreal CF64% / 20% / 16%Real Madrid CF1–0 (13%)
2026-10-11Elche CF v RC Celta de Vigo32% / 32% / 36%RC Celta de Vigo0–1 (9%)
2026-10-11Real Betis Balompié v CA Osasuna59% / 25% / 16%Real Betis Balompié1–0 (12%)
2026-10-11Real Racing Club de Santander v Valencia CF38% / 33% / 28%Real Racing Club de Santander1–0 (10%)
2026-10-11Real Sociedad de Fútbol v RC Deportivo La Coruña46% / 30% / 25%Real Sociedad de Fútbol1–0 (12%)
2026-10-12Levante UD v Sevilla FC43% / 32% / 25%Levante UD1–0 (10%)

Ligue 1

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-09Racing Club de Lens v Olympique Lyonnais49% / 23% / 27%Racing Club de Lens1–0 (9%)
2026-10-10AS Monaco FC v Toulouse FC48% / 27% / 25%AS Monaco FC1–0 (11%)
2026-10-10FC Lorient v Paris FC31% / 29% / 40%Paris FC1–2 (8%)
2026-10-10Lille OSC v Havre AC64% / 23% / 13%Lille OSC2–0 (12%)
2026-10-10Paris Saint-Germain FC v Le Mans FC80% / 13% / 7%Paris Saint-Germain FC2–0 (15%)
2026-10-10Stade Brestois 29 v Angers SCO47% / 30% / 24%Stade Brestois 291–0 (10%)
2026-10-11ESTAC Troyes v Olympique de Marseille22% / 27% / 51%Olympique de Marseille0–1 (10%)
2026-10-11OGC Nice v RC Strasbourg Alsace32% / 28% / 39%RC Strasbourg Alsace0–1 (9%)
2026-10-11Stade Rennais FC 1901 v AJ Auxerre55% / 26% / 18%Stade Rennais FC 19011–0 (11%)

Premier League

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-10Arsenal FC v Leeds United FC73% / 16% / 11%Arsenal FC2–0 (13%)
2026-10-10Aston Villa FC v Brentford FC34% / 33% / 33%Aston Villa FC1–0 (10%)
2026-10-10Chelsea FC v AFC Bournemouth45% / 27% / 28%Chelsea FC1–0 (10%)
2026-10-10Ipswich Town FC v Fulham FC30% / 32% / 38%Fulham FC0–1 (9%)
2026-10-10Manchester United FC v Tottenham Hotspur FC62% / 21% / 17%Manchester United FC1–0 (12%)
2026-10-10Sunderland AFC v Brighton & Hove Albion FC35% / 29% / 36%Brighton & Hove Albion FC0–1 (10%)
2026-10-11Crystal Palace FC v Nottingham Forest FC31% / 32% / 37%Nottingham Forest FC0–1 (8%)
2026-10-11Hull City AFC v Everton FC23% / 30% / 48%Everton FC0–1 (10%)
2026-10-11Liverpool FC v Manchester City FC32% / 25% / 43%Manchester City FC0–1 (9%)
2026-10-12Coventry City FC v Newcastle United FC28% / 31% / 41%Newcastle United FC0–1 (9%)

Serie A

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-10FC Internazionale Milano v Parma Calcio 191389% / 8% / 4%FC Internazionale Milano2–0 (18%)
2026-10-10Genoa CFC v ACF Fiorentina30% / 30% / 40%ACF Fiorentina0–1 (11%)
2026-10-10SSC Napoli v Frosinone Calcio67% / 21% / 12%SSC Napoli1–0 (16%)
2026-10-11Cagliari Calcio v Juventus FC13% / 19% / 68%Juventus FC0–1 (14%)
2026-10-11Como 1907 v AS Roma35% / 29% / 36%AS Roma0–1 (11%)
2026-10-11SS Lazio v AC Monza56% / 26% / 18%SS Lazio1–0 (15%)
2026-10-11US Lecce v Bologna FC 190924% / 27% / 49%Bologna FC 19090–1 (12%)
2026-10-11US Sassuolo Calcio v AC Milan29% / 27% / 43%AC Milan0–1 (13%)
2026-10-12Atalanta BC v Venezia FC57% / 25% / 18%Atalanta BC1–0 (16%)
2026-10-12Torino FC v Udinese Calcio36% / 32% / 32%Torino FC1–0 (11%)

📊 This week against trend

60 fixtures · 92 clubs with enough history to compare. Each club is measured against its own mean in completed seasons before 2026-27, not against a league average.

The slate as a whole

MetricThis weekClub normDiffDirection
npxG conceded1.541.29+0.25↑ worse
xG conceded1.631.41+0.22↑ worse
npxG created1.551.31+0.23↑ better
Deep completions allowed7.026.12+0.90↑ worse
xG created1.641.43+0.21↑ better
PPDA (pressing)13.2011.92+1.28↑ worse
Deep completions7.106.24+0.86↑ better
xG per shot0.1210.116+0.005↑ better
Deep share0.5020.506-0.004↓ worse
Expected points1.401.40-0.00level

Furthest from their own norm

ClubMetricNowNormDirectionFixture
FC AugsburgPPDA (pressing)23.2613.43↑ worseFC Augsburg v FC Bayern München
1. FC Union BerlinnpxG conceded2.341.33↑ worse1. FC Union Berlin v SV 07 Elversberg
1. FC Union BerlinxG conceded2.471.45↑ worse1. FC Union Berlin v SV 07 Elversberg
Olympique de MarseillexG conceded2.181.19↑ worseESTAC Troyes v Olympique de Marseille
Olympique de MarseillenpxG conceded2.011.08↑ worseESTAC Troyes v Olympique de Marseille
FC AugsburgDeep completions allowed12.507.70↑ worseFC Augsburg v FC Bayern München
Olympique de MarseilleDeep completions allowed8.914.26↑ worseESTAC Troyes v Olympique de Marseille
1. FSV Mainz 05xG per shot0.1640.115↑ better1. FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer 04 Leverkusen

"Now" is the exponentially weighted form the model actually used, which early in a season still carries the back end of the last one. Rows are ranked by how large the gap is relative to how much clubs differ on that metric at all, so an xG swing and a PPDA swing are comparable. A club with fewer than 20 prior-season matches has no norm and is left out rather than compared against someone else's.

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

WindowGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Last 7 days0——
Last 30 days15846.8%1.0259
Season to date30648.4%1.0152

Season record by league

LeagueGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Bundesliga3650.0%0.9618
Championship8243.9%1.0730
Premier League4940.8%1.0547
La Liga5850.0%0.9553
Ligue 13548.6%1.0746
Serie A4660.9%0.9422

No matches graded in the past week.

🔮 Final-table forecasts

Premier League — Manchester City FC 47% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Manchester City FC1581.51.947%96%3%<1%
2Arsenal FC1280.82.044%96%3%<1%
3Liverpool FC967.14.75%59%20%<1%
4Brighton & Hove Albion FC1061.56.52%36%22%1%
5Manchester United FC556.48.3<1%19%20%2%
6Brentford FC955.98.61%18%18%3%
7Leeds United FC955.38.80%16%18%3%
8Chelsea FC753.49.6<1%12%16%4%
9Newcastle United FC853.39.6<1%12%16%5%
10Aston Villa FC452.89.8<1%11%15%5%
11Everton FC951.110.6<1%8%12%6%
12AFC Bournemouth350.910.6<1%8%12%7%
13Nottingham Forest FC546.912.4<1%4%8%14%
14Crystal Palace FC443.513.8<1%2%4%23%
15Fulham FC241.614.5<1%1%3%29%
16Sunderland AFC440.415.0<1%1%2%34%
17Coventry City FC339.515.4<1%1%2%37%
18Ipswich Town FC639.515.4<1%1%2%37%
19Tottenham Hotspur FC237.516.1<1%<1%1%45%
20Hull City AFC837.616.2<1%<1%1%45%

Bundesliga — FC Bayern München 65% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Bayern München1074.11.665%98%2%<1%
2Borussia Dortmund1267.32.725%88%8%<1%
3Bayer 04 Leverkusen758.44.95%56%20%<1%
4RB Leipzig653.16.82%32%23%2%
5SC Freiburg1052.27.11%29%21%3%
6VfB Stuttgart351.37.51%26%21%3%
71. FSV Mainz 05747.49.1<1%14%17%7%
8SV 07 Elversberg746.89.4<1%13%15%8%
9FC Augsburg744.910.3<1%9%12%12%
10TSG 1899 Hoffenheim344.210.5<1%8%12%14%
11Eintracht Frankfurt543.910.7<1%7%11%14%
12SC Paderborn 07443.710.7<1%7%11%15%
13SV Werder Bremen742.411.3<1%5%9%18%
14FC Schalke 04539.312.7<1%3%5%29%
15Hamburger SV339.112.7<1%3%5%30%
161. FC Köln437.013.6<1%1%3%38%
171. FC Union Berlin133.914.7<1%1%2%53%
18Borussia Mönchengladbach033.814.8<1%1%2%53%

La Liga — FC Barcelona 72% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Barcelona2189.51.472%100%<1%<1%
2Real Madrid CF1581.72.221%98%2%<1%
3Club Atlético de Madrid1675.13.26%89%9%<1%
4Real Betis Balompié1667.44.61%60%26%<1%
5Villarreal CF859.36.9<1%20%36%<1%
6Athletic Club853.59.1<1%8%22%3%
7Real Sociedad de Fútbol1053.19.3<1%7%21%3%
8Sevilla FC1352.19.7<1%5%19%3%
9Rayo Vallecano de Madrid849.311.0<1%3%12%8%
10Deportivo Alavés1148.011.6<1%2%9%9%
11RC Celta de Vigo747.611.8<1%2%9%10%
12Real Racing Club de Santander744.813.1<1%1%5%17%
13CA Osasuna844.713.1<1%1%5%17%
14Levante UD544.413.2<1%1%5%19%
15Getafe CF844.113.4<1%1%5%19%
16Valencia CF443.513.7<1%1%4%21%
17RCD Espanyol de Barcelona742.714.1<1%1%3%24%
18RC Deportivo La Coruña1041.714.5<1%<1%3%27%
19Elche CF541.014.8<1%<1%2%30%
20Málaga CF327.819.1<1%<1%<1%88%

Serie A — FC Internazionale Milano 65% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Internazionale Milano1385.81.665%97%3%<1%
2AS Roma1376.83.217%79%15%<1%
3Juventus FC1070.54.66%53%26%<1%
4AC Milan1169.54.95%48%28%<1%
5SSC Napoli768.45.23%43%29%<1%
6SS Lazio1365.56.02%31%28%<1%
7Atalanta BC662.76.81%21%27%<1%
8Como 19071062.56.91%21%25%<1%
9Cagliari Calcio1247.911.7<1%1%4%5%
10Bologna FC 1909247.811.7<1%1%4%6%
11ACF Fiorentina446.712.1<1%1%3%7%
12US Sassuolo Calcio746.512.2<1%1%3%7%
13Frosinone Calcio1044.313.0<1%<1%2%10%
14Torino FC442.413.7<1%<1%1%16%
15Udinese Calcio442.313.7<1%<1%1%16%
16Parma Calcio 1913435.916.0<1%<1%<1%39%
17US Lecce635.516.2<1%<1%<1%40%
18Genoa CFC134.616.4<1%<1%<1%44%
19AC Monza434.116.6<1%<1%<1%47%
20Venezia FC030.817.6<1%<1%<1%62%

Ligue 1 — Paris Saint-Germain FC 61% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Paris Saint-Germain FC872.01.761%96%3%<1%
2AS Monaco FC1363.23.716%71%16%<1%
3Lille OSC1059.44.78%55%22%<1%
4Olympique Lyonnais1158.94.98%53%22%<1%
5Stade Rennais FC 19011055.36.13%36%24%1%
6Paris FC1151.77.42%22%21%2%
7Racing Club de Lens451.47.51%21%22%2%
8RC Strasbourg Alsace751.07.71%20%21%2%
9Olympique de Marseille348.38.7<1%13%17%4%
10FC Lorient542.011.3<1%4%7%14%
11Toulouse FC541.911.3<1%3%7%14%
12OGC Nice539.612.2<1%2%5%21%
13Stade Brestois 29539.612.2<1%2%5%20%
14AJ Auxerre637.912.9<1%1%3%27%
15Angers SCO735.214.0<1%<1%2%38%
16ESTAC Troyes434.314.3<1%<1%1%42%
17Le Mans FC632.514.9<1%<1%1%52%
18Havre AC230.415.5<1%<1%<1%62%

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (30,000 replays of the remaining fixtures with live in-sim Elo). Proj = projected finish ordered by expected position; xPts / xPos = expected points and position; UCL = top 4, UEL = 5th–6th, Rel = bottom 3.

🇺🇸 MLS — Shield, playoffs and MLS Cup

Eastern Conference — Nashville SC 27% to reach MLS Cup

SeedTeamPtsxPtsPlayoffs1 seedConfCupShield
1.0Nashville SC5770.9100%98%27%17%87%
2.5Inter Miami CF4660.4100%2%25%15%1%
3.5New England Revolution4656.3100%<1%8%4%<1%
4.1Charlotte FC4354.7100%<1%11%5%<1%
5.3Chicago Fire FC3951.798%<1%7%3%<1%
6.5Philadelphia Union3648.794%<1%9%4%<1%
7.6FC Cincinnati3347.082%<1%5%2%<1%
8.0Orlando City SC3445.577%<1%4%2%<1%
9.0New York Red Bulls3343.859%<1%2%1%<1%
9.1New York City FC3243.758%<1%2%1%<1%
11.9Toronto FC2938.310%<1%<1%<1%<1%
12.1Columbus Crew2637.08%<1%<1%<1%<1%
12.1D.C. United2937.79%<1%<1%<1%<1%
12.7Atlanta United FC2635.65%<1%<1%<1%<1%
14.7CF Montréal2129.3<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%

Western Conference — Vancouver Whitecaps FC 31% to reach MLS Cup

SeedTeamPtsxPtsPlayoffs1 seedConfCupShield
1.3Vancouver Whitecaps FC4963.5100%80%31%18%11%
3.4FC Dallas4456.7100%7%14%6%<1%
3.6Houston Dynamo FC4455.8100%6%12%5%<1%
3.9St. Louis City SC4455.3100%5%10%4%<1%
4.8San Jose Earthquakes4253.099%1%7%3%<1%
5.1Los Angeles FC4152.499%1%15%7%<1%
8.1Colorado Rapids3646.076%<1%3%1%<1%
9.0Seattle Sounders FC3245.062%<1%3%1%<1%
10.1Portland Timbers3242.541%<1%2%1%<1%
10.4LA Galaxy3342.636%<1%1%<1%<1%
10.6San Diego FC3141.832%<1%1%<1%<1%
11.5Austin FC3040.721%<1%0%<1%<1%
11.7Minnesota United FC2940.117%<1%1%<1%<1%
11.7Real Salt Lake2939.717%<1%<1%<1%<1%
14.9Sporting Kansas City1826.7<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%

122 regular-season matches left, replayed 20,000 times with live in-sim Elo, then the full playoff bracket each time. Seed = expected conference finish; 1 seed = finishing top of the conference; Conf = reaching MLS Cup; Shield = best record in the league. MLS publishes no machine-readable fixture list, so the run-in is reconstructed from the league's format: 105 conference fixtures are exact, and the 17 cross-conference ones are known only as per-club home/away counts, so every replay draws its own pairing of them.

Glued club Elo (top-5 leagues + UEFA cross-play) with a squad-economics outcome model · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/soccer

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