Soccer Update

Run date 2026-10-18 · fixtures for the next 7 days, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts for the top 5 leagues.

📅 Games this week

Bundesliga

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-18Bayer 04 Leverkusen v SC Freiburg64% / 20% / 16%Bayer 04 Leverkusen2–1 (10%)
2026-10-18Borussia Mönchengladbach v TSG 1899 Hoffenheim28% / 25% / 47%TSG 1899 Hoffenheim1–2 (8%)
2026-10-23VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Mönchengladbach62% / 22% / 15%VfB Stuttgart2–1 (10%)
2026-10-241. FC Köln v FC Schalke 0450% / 27% / 22%1. FC Köln2–1 (9%)
2026-10-241. FSV Mainz 05 v SV Werder Bremen55% / 24% / 21%1. FSV Mainz 052–1 (10%)
2026-10-24Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt67% / 19% / 13%Borussia Dortmund2–1 (10%)
2026-10-24FC Augsburg v 1. FC Union Berlin47% / 31% / 22%FC Augsburg2–1 (10%)
2026-10-24RB Leipzig v SV 07 Elversberg67% / 19% / 14%RB Leipzig2–1 (10%)
2026-10-24SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV37% / 31% / 33%SC Paderborn 072–1 (9%)

Premier League

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-18AFC Bournemouth v Sunderland AFC48% / 28% / 24%AFC Bournemouth1–0 (11%)
2026-10-18Brighton & Hove Albion FC v Crystal Palace FC56% / 26% / 18%Brighton & Hove Albion FC1–0 (12%)
2026-10-18Leeds United FC v Manchester United FC29% / 27% / 45%Manchester United FC0–1 (8%)
2026-10-18Nottingham Forest FC v Arsenal FC24% / 26% / 50%Arsenal FC0–1 (12%)
2026-10-19Tottenham Hotspur FC v Coventry City FC56% / 26% / 18%Tottenham Hotspur FC1–0 (10%)
2026-10-23Ipswich Town FC v Nottingham Forest FC21% / 26% / 52%Nottingham Forest FC0–1 (9%)
2026-10-24Arsenal FC v Everton FC74% / 16% / 10%Arsenal FC2–0 (14%)
2026-10-24Aston Villa FC v Manchester City FC20% / 21% / 59%Manchester City FC0–1 (11%)
2026-10-24Chelsea FC v Tottenham Hotspur FC51% / 25% / 23%Chelsea FC1–0 (11%)
2026-10-24Coventry City FC v Fulham FC27% / 28% / 46%Fulham FC0–1 (8%)

La Liga

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-18CA Osasuna v Real Racing Club de Santander48% / 28% / 24%CA Osasuna1–0 (10%)
2026-10-18Málaga CF v Real Sociedad de Fútbol27% / 30% / 43%Real Sociedad de Fútbol0–1 (10%)
2026-10-18RC Celta de Vigo v Deportivo Alavés45% / 28% / 27%RC Celta de Vigo1–0 (11%)
2026-10-18Real Madrid CF v Sevilla FC81% / 13% / 7%Real Madrid CF2–0 (15%)
2026-10-19Getafe CF v Rayo Vallecano de Madrid41% / 29% / 29%Getafe CF1–0 (10%)
2026-10-21Levante UD v Athletic Club34% / 31% / 35%Athletic Club0–1 (8%)

Ligue 1

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-18Angers SCO v Olympique de Marseille25% / 29% / 47%Olympique de Marseille0–1 (10%)
2026-10-18FC Lorient v AS Monaco FC30% / 27% / 42%AS Monaco FC0–1 (9%)
2026-10-18Havre AC v AJ Auxerre42% / 31% / 27%Havre AC2–1 (9%)
2026-10-18Olympique Lyonnais v OGC Nice63% / 22% / 15%Olympique Lyonnais1–0 (11%)
2026-10-18Paris FC v Stade Rennais FC 190147% / 27% / 27%Paris FC2–1 (9%)
2026-10-23Stade Brestois 29 v OGC Nice39% / 33% / 27%Stade Brestois 291–0 (9%)
2026-10-24Racing Club de Lens v Paris FC48% / 27% / 25%Racing Club de Lens1–0 (10%)
2026-10-24Toulouse FC v ESTAC Troyes64% / 21% / 15%Toulouse FC1–0 (10%)

Serie A

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-18AC Milan v Atalanta BC55% / 25% / 20%AC Milan1–0 (12%)
2026-10-18ACF Fiorentina v Como 190727% / 28% / 45%Como 19070–1 (11%)
2026-10-18Juventus FC v SS Lazio65% / 21% / 14%Juventus FC1–0 (13%)
2026-10-18Udinese Calcio v US Lecce52% / 28% / 20%Udinese Calcio1–0 (13%)
2026-10-19AC Monza v Cagliari Calcio37% / 32% / 31%AC Monza1–0 (10%)
2026-10-19Parma Calcio 1913 v Torino FC31% / 33% / 36%Torino FC0–1 (10%)
2026-10-23Torino FC v AC Monza44% / 29% / 26%Torino FC1–0 (13%)
2026-10-24Cagliari Calcio v Bologna FC 190930% / 32% / 38%Bologna FC 19090–1 (11%)
2026-10-24Como 1907 v US Sassuolo Calcio65% / 20% / 15%Como 19071–0 (14%)
2026-10-24SS Lazio v Parma Calcio 191367% / 21% / 12%SS Lazio1–0 (15%)
2026-10-24SSC Napoli v AS Roma37% / 29% / 34%SSC Napoli1–0 (11%)

Championship

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-20Wolverhampton Wanderers FC v Portsmouth FC64% / 23% / 13%Wolverhampton Wanderers FC1–0 (13%)
2026-10-23Bolton Wanderers FC v Middlesbrough FC29% / 27% / 44%Middlesbrough FC0–1 (11%)
2026-10-24Blackburn Rovers FC v Wrexham AFC37% / 29% / 34%Blackburn Rovers FC1–0 (11%)
2026-10-24Cardiff City FC v Birmingham City FC34% / 29% / 37%Birmingham City FC0–1 (10%)
2026-10-24Charlton Athletic FC v Norwich City FC35% / 26% / 39%Norwich City FC0–1 (9%)
2026-10-24Lincoln City FC v Burnley FC28% / 25% / 47%Burnley FC0–1 (13%)
2026-10-24Portsmouth FC v Millwall FC35% / 27% / 38%Millwall FC0–1 (10%)
2026-10-24Preston North End FC v West Bromwich Albion FC38% / 28% / 34%Preston North End FC1–0 (9%)
2026-10-24Queens Park Rangers FC v Swansea City AFC37% / 29% / 34%Queens Park Rangers FC1–0 (10%)
2026-10-24Sheffield United FC v Derby County FC47% / 24% / 29%Sheffield United FC1–0 (11%)
2026-10-24Stoke City FC v Bristol City FC42% / 28% / 30%Stoke City FC1–0 (10%)
2026-10-24West Ham United FC v Southampton FC54% / 25% / 20%West Ham United FC1–0 (12%)
2026-10-24Wolverhampton Wanderers FC v Watford FC62% / 24% / 14%Wolverhampton Wanderers FC1–0 (13%)

📊 This week against trend

57 fixtures · 72 clubs with enough history to compare. Each club is measured against its own mean in completed seasons before 2026-27, not against a league average.

The slate as a whole

MetricThis weekClub normDiffDirection
npxG conceded1.551.30+0.25↑ worse
xG conceded1.641.43+0.21↑ worse
npxG created1.501.29+0.21↑ better
PPDA (pressing)13.7112.22+1.49↑ worse
Deep completions allowed7.026.18+0.84↑ worse
xG created1.591.41+0.18↑ better
xG per shot0.1200.115+0.005↑ better
Deep completions6.766.11+0.66↑ better
Deep share0.4940.500-0.006↓ worse
Expected points1.381.38+0.00level

Furthest from their own norm

ClubMetricNowNormDirectionFixture
FC LorientPPDA (pressing)25.5515.05↑ worseFC Lorient v AS Monaco FC
FC AugsburgDeep completions allowed12.547.70↑ worseFC Augsburg v 1. FC Union Berlin
RB LeipzignpxG conceded2.081.19↑ worseRB Leipzig v SV 07 Elversberg
1. FSV Mainz 05xG per shot0.1640.115↑ better1. FSV Mainz 05 v SV Werder Bremen
Olympique de MarseillenpxG conceded1.911.08↑ worseAngers SCO v Olympique de Marseille
Olympique de MarseillexG conceded2.061.19↑ worseAngers SCO v Olympique de Marseille
FC AugsburgxG conceded2.541.68↑ worseFC Augsburg v 1. FC Union Berlin
FC AugsburgPPDA (pressing)21.1313.43↑ worseFC Augsburg v 1. FC Union Berlin

"Now" is the exponentially weighted form the model actually used, which early in a season still carries the back end of the last one. Rows are ranked by how large the gap is relative to how much clubs differ on that metric at all, so an xG swing and a PPDA swing are comparable. A club with fewer than 20 prior-season matches has no norm and is left out rather than compared against someone else's.

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

WindowGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Last 7 days0——
Last 30 days6045.0%1.0425
Season to date30648.4%1.0152

Season record by league

LeagueGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Bundesliga3650.0%0.9618
Championship8243.9%1.0730
Premier League4940.8%1.0547
La Liga5850.0%0.9553
Ligue 13548.6%1.0746
Serie A4660.9%0.9422

No matches graded in the past week.

🔮 Final-table forecasts

Premier League — Manchester City FC 47% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Manchester City FC1581.41.947%96%3%<1%
2Arsenal FC1280.72.043%96%3%<1%
3Liverpool FC967.14.75%59%20%<1%
4Brighton & Hove Albion FC1061.66.52%36%23%1%
5Manchester United FC556.38.4<1%19%20%2%
6Brentford FC955.88.60%17%19%3%
7Leeds United FC955.28.90%16%18%3%
8Chelsea FC753.49.6<1%12%16%5%
9Newcastle United FC853.39.6<1%12%15%4%
10Aston Villa FC452.89.8<1%11%15%5%
11Everton FC951.110.6<1%8%12%6%
12AFC Bournemouth351.010.6<1%8%12%7%
13Nottingham Forest FC546.812.4<1%4%7%14%
14Crystal Palace FC443.413.8<1%2%4%23%
15Fulham FC241.714.5<1%1%3%29%
16Sunderland AFC440.415.0<1%1%3%34%
17Coventry City FC339.615.3<1%1%2%37%
18Ipswich Town FC639.515.4<1%1%2%36%
19Tottenham Hotspur FC237.616.1<1%<1%1%45%
20Hull City AFC837.616.2<1%<1%1%45%

Bundesliga — FC Bayern München 65% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Bayern München1074.21.665%98%1%<1%
2Borussia Dortmund1267.22.724%87%8%<1%
3Bayer 04 Leverkusen758.64.85%57%20%<1%
4RB Leipzig653.26.82%33%23%2%
5SC Freiburg1052.37.12%29%22%2%
6VfB Stuttgart351.37.51%25%21%3%
71. FSV Mainz 05747.59.1<1%14%16%7%
8SV 07 Elversberg746.89.4<1%13%15%8%
9FC Augsburg744.810.3<1%9%12%12%
10TSG 1899 Hoffenheim344.210.5<1%8%12%14%
11Eintracht Frankfurt544.010.6<1%8%11%14%
12SC Paderborn 07443.710.8<1%7%11%15%
13SV Werder Bremen742.311.4<1%5%9%18%
14Hamburger SV339.212.7<1%3%6%29%
15FC Schalke 04539.212.7<1%3%5%29%
161. FC Köln436.913.6<1%2%3%39%
171. FC Union Berlin133.914.7<1%1%2%52%
18Borussia Mönchengladbach033.814.8<1%1%2%53%

La Liga — FC Barcelona 72% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Barcelona2189.51.472%100%<1%<1%
2Real Madrid CF1581.82.221%98%2%<1%
3Club Atlético de Madrid1675.03.26%89%9%<1%
4Real Betis Balompié1667.54.61%61%26%<1%
5Villarreal CF859.26.9<1%20%36%1%
6Athletic Club853.59.2<1%8%23%3%
7Real Sociedad de Fútbol1053.19.3<1%7%22%3%
8Sevilla FC1352.29.7<1%5%19%4%
9Rayo Vallecano de Madrid849.311.0<1%3%12%8%
10Deportivo Alavés1147.911.7<1%2%9%9%
11RC Celta de Vigo747.611.8<1%2%9%10%
12Real Racing Club de Santander744.913.1<1%1%6%17%
13CA Osasuna844.813.1<1%1%5%17%
14Levante UD544.513.2<1%1%5%19%
15Getafe CF844.113.4<1%1%5%19%
16Valencia CF443.413.7<1%1%4%21%
17RCD Espanyol de Barcelona742.614.1<1%1%3%24%
18RC Deportivo La Coruña1041.614.6<1%<1%2%27%
19Elche CF541.114.8<1%<1%2%30%
20Málaga CF327.819.1<1%<1%<1%88%

Serie A — FC Internazionale Milano 65% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Internazionale Milano1385.81.665%97%3%<1%
2AS Roma1376.83.217%78%15%<1%
3Juventus FC1070.54.66%54%26%<1%
4AC Milan1169.64.95%49%27%<1%
5SSC Napoli768.35.23%43%29%<1%
6SS Lazio1365.66.02%32%28%<1%
7Atalanta BC662.66.81%21%26%<1%
8Como 19071062.56.91%21%26%<1%
9Cagliari Calcio1247.811.7<1%1%4%5%
10Bologna FC 1909247.711.8<1%1%4%6%
11ACF Fiorentina446.712.1<1%1%4%8%
12US Sassuolo Calcio746.512.2<1%1%3%7%
13Frosinone Calcio1044.413.0<1%<1%2%10%
14Torino FC442.513.7<1%<1%1%16%
15Udinese Calcio442.313.7<1%<1%1%16%
16Parma Calcio 1913436.016.0<1%<1%<1%38%
17US Lecce635.616.1<1%<1%<1%40%
18Genoa CFC134.716.4<1%<1%<1%44%
19AC Monza434.016.7<1%<1%<1%48%
20Venezia FC030.917.6<1%<1%<1%62%

Ligue 1 — Paris Saint-Germain FC 61% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Paris Saint-Germain FC872.11.761%96%3%<1%
2AS Monaco FC1363.33.616%72%16%<1%
3Lille OSC1059.44.78%55%21%<1%
4Olympique Lyonnais1159.04.97%53%22%<1%
5Stade Rennais FC 19011055.26.13%36%24%1%
6Paris FC1151.77.42%22%21%2%
7Racing Club de Lens451.47.51%21%22%2%
8RC Strasbourg Alsace751.07.71%19%21%2%
9Olympique de Marseille348.48.71%13%18%4%
10FC Lorient542.011.2<1%4%7%13%
11Toulouse FC541.811.3<1%3%7%14%
12Stade Brestois 29539.612.2<1%2%5%20%
13OGC Nice539.512.3<1%2%5%21%
14AJ Auxerre637.813.0<1%1%3%27%
15Angers SCO735.014.0<1%<1%2%38%
16ESTAC Troyes434.314.3<1%<1%1%42%
17Le Mans FC632.514.9<1%<1%1%52%
18Havre AC230.415.5<1%<1%1%61%

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (30,000 replays of the remaining fixtures with live in-sim Elo). Proj = projected finish ordered by expected position; xPts / xPos = expected points and position; UCL = top 4, UEL = 5th–6th, Rel = bottom 3.

🇺🇸 MLS — Shield, playoffs and MLS Cup

Eastern Conference — Nashville SC 29% to reach MLS Cup

SeedTeamPtsxPtsPlayoffs1 seedConfCupShield
1.0Nashville SC6373.5100%100%29%19%99%
2.6Inter Miami CF4959.8100%<1%24%14%<1%
3.4Chicago Fire FC4857.0100%<1%11%6%<1%
4.5Charlotte FC4654.2100%<1%10%5%<1%
4.7New England Revolution4653.2100%<1%5%2%<1%
5.5Philadelphia Union4251.3100%<1%11%5%<1%
7.7FC Cincinnati3646.987%<1%4%2%<1%
7.9Orlando City SC3745.985%<1%3%1%<1%
9.0New York Red Bulls3643.966%<1%1%<1%<1%
9.9New York City FC3342.139%<1%1%<1%<1%
11.6Toronto FC3238.910%<1%<1%<1%<1%
11.8Columbus Crew2937.67%<1%<1%<1%<1%
12.2D.C. United3037.36%<1%<1%<1%<1%
13.5Atlanta United FC2733.81%<1%<1%<1%<1%
14.6CF Montréal2430.1<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%

Western Conference — Vancouver Whitecaps FC 27% to reach MLS Cup

SeedTeamPtsxPtsPlayoffs1 seedConfCupShield
1.7Vancouver Whitecaps FC5160.6100%57%27%14%<1%
2.4St. Louis City SC5058.8100%28%16%7%<1%
3.2FC Dallas4757.0100%10%14%6%<1%
4.2San Jose Earthquakes4654.3100%3%8%3%<1%
4.7Houston Dynamo FC4553.1100%2%9%3%<1%
6.0Los Angeles FC4250.599%<1%12%5%<1%
6.4Seattle Sounders FC4149.598%<1%9%4%<1%
8.9Colorado Rapids3744.169%<1%2%1%<1%
9.9LA Galaxy3642.947%<1%1%<1%<1%
10.8Portland Timbers3340.828%<1%1%<1%<1%
11.1Real Salt Lake3240.223%<1%1%<1%<1%
11.2San Diego FC3240.220%<1%1%<1%<1%
12.3Austin FC3138.59%<1%<1%<1%<1%
12.3Minnesota United FC3038.48%<1%<1%<1%<1%
14.9Sporting Kansas City2228.2<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%

90 regular-season matches left, replayed 20,000 times with live in-sim Elo, then the full playoff bracket each time. Seed = expected conference finish; 1 seed = finishing top of the conference; Conf = reaching MLS Cup; Shield = best record in the league. MLS publishes no machine-readable fixture list, so the run-in is reconstructed from the league's format: 82 conference fixtures are exact, and the 8 cross-conference ones are known only as per-club home/away counts, so every replay draws its own pairing of them.

Glued club Elo (top-5 leagues + UEFA cross-play) with a squad-economics outcome model · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/soccer

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