Soccer Update

Run date 2026-10-28 · fixtures for the next 7 days, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts for the top 5 leagues.

📅 Games this week

Serie A

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-28AC Milan v Bologna FC 190962% / 22% / 16%AC Milan1–0 (14%)
2026-10-28AC Monza v SSC Napoli14% / 21% / 66%SSC Napoli0–1 (15%)
2026-10-28Genoa CFC v Juventus FC13% / 21% / 66%Juventus FC0–1 (14%)
2026-10-28Parma Calcio 1913 v Udinese Calcio39% / 31% / 30%Parma Calcio 19131–0 (10%)
2026-10-28Venezia FC v FC Internazionale Milano9% / 16% / 75%FC Internazionale Milano0–1 (17%)
2026-10-29ACF Fiorentina v Atalanta BC32% / 30% / 38%Atalanta BC0–1 (12%)
2026-10-29Frosinone Calcio v US Lecce48% / 27% / 25%Frosinone Calcio1–0 (12%)
2026-10-31AC Milan v FC Internazionale Milano26% / 25% / 49%FC Internazionale Milano0–1 (13%)
2026-10-31Bologna FC 1909 v AC Monza54% / 27% / 19%Bologna FC 19091–0 (14%)
2026-10-31Udinese Calcio v AS Roma15% / 22% / 63%AS Roma0–1 (14%)
2026-11-01Como 1907 v Venezia FC76% / 14% / 9%Como 19071–0 (15%)
2026-11-01Frosinone Calcio v Torino FC38% / 28% / 33%Frosinone Calcio1–0 (11%)
2026-11-01Juventus FC v SSC Napoli50% / 26% / 24%Juventus FC1–0 (12%)
2026-11-01SS Lazio v Cagliari Calcio61% / 25% / 15%SS Lazio1–0 (14%)
2026-11-01US Lecce v Genoa CFC36% / 29% / 35%US Lecce1–0 (11%)
2026-11-02Atalanta BC v Parma Calcio 191358% / 27% / 15%Atalanta BC1–0 (15%)
2026-11-02US Sassuolo Calcio v ACF Fiorentina32% / 29% / 39%ACF Fiorentina0–1 (10%)

Bundesliga

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-30SV 07 Elversberg v 1. FSV Mainz 0528% / 28% / 44%1. FSV Mainz 051–2 (8%)
2026-10-31Bayer 04 Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart56% / 22% / 22%Bayer 04 Leverkusen2–1 (9%)
2026-10-31Borussia Mönchengladbach v SC Paderborn 0744% / 29% / 28%Borussia Mönchengladbach2–1 (8%)
2026-10-31FC Augsburg v SC Freiburg34% / 32% / 34%FC Augsburg2–1 (9%)
2026-10-31FC Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund67% / 19% / 14%FC Bayern München2–1 (10%)
2026-10-31FC Schalke 04 v RB Leipzig21% / 25% / 54%RB Leipzig1–2 (9%)
2026-10-31SV Werder Bremen v TSG 1899 Hoffenheim27% / 26% / 47%TSG 1899 Hoffenheim1–2 (8%)
2026-11-011. FC Union Berlin v 1. FC Köln33% / 32% / 35%1. FC Köln1–2 (7%)
2026-11-01Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburger SV53% / 27% / 20%Eintracht Frankfurt2–1 (9%)

Championship

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-30Sheffield United FC v Wrexham AFC45% / 26% / 29%Sheffield United FC1–0 (12%)
2026-10-31Bolton Wanderers FC v Bristol City FC36% / 30% / 34%Bolton Wanderers FC1–0 (10%)
2026-10-31Burnley FC v Portsmouth FC53% / 25% / 23%Burnley FC1–0 (12%)
2026-10-31Lincoln City FC v Birmingham City FC31% / 25% / 44%Birmingham City FC0–1 (12%)
2026-10-31Middlesbrough FC v Charlton Athletic FC57% / 24% / 20%Middlesbrough FC1–0 (13%)
2026-10-31Millwall FC v Derby County FC48% / 27% / 25%Millwall FC1–0 (12%)
2026-10-31Norwich City FC v Watford FC48% / 27% / 25%Norwich City FC1–0 (12%)
2026-10-31Southampton FC v Queens Park Rangers FC59% / 23% / 17%Southampton FC1–0 (13%)
2026-10-31Stoke City FC v Preston North End FC50% / 27% / 23%Stoke City FC1–0 (12%)
2026-10-31Swansea City AFC v Blackburn Rovers FC54% / 24% / 22%Swansea City AFC1–0 (12%)
2026-10-31West Ham United FC v West Bromwich Albion FC69% / 18% / 13%West Ham United FC1–0 (13%)
2026-10-31Wolverhampton Wanderers FC v Cardiff City FC67% / 21% / 12%Wolverhampton Wanderers FC1–0 (13%)
2026-11-03Birmingham City FC v Millwall FC43% / 27% / 30%Birmingham City FC1–0 (10%)
2026-11-03Blackburn Rovers FC v Stoke City FC36% / 29% / 35%Blackburn Rovers FC1–0 (11%)
2026-11-03Charlton Athletic FC v Bolton Wanderers FC45% / 29% / 26%Charlton Athletic FC1–0 (11%)
2026-11-03Derby County FC v Norwich City FC35% / 26% / 39%Norwich City FC0–1 (9%)
2026-11-03Portsmouth FC v Swansea City AFC34% / 27% / 39%Swansea City AFC0–1 (10%)
2026-11-03Preston North End FC v Sheffield United FC36% / 27% / 37%Sheffield United FC0–1 (10%)
2026-11-03Queens Park Rangers FC v Burnley FC35% / 25% / 40%Burnley FC0–1 (9%)
2026-11-03Watford FC v Lincoln City FC56% / 25% / 19%Watford FC1–0 (13%)
2026-11-03West Bromwich Albion FC v Southampton FC25% / 27% / 48%Southampton FC0–1 (10%)

Ligue 1

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-30Havre AC v Paris Saint-Germain FC14% / 21% / 65%Paris Saint-Germain FC0–2 (14%)
2026-10-30Lille OSC v Racing Club de Lens43% / 27% / 30%Lille OSC1–0 (9%)
2026-10-31ESTAC Troyes v Le Mans FC39% / 31% / 30%ESTAC Troyes1–0 (10%)
2026-10-31FC Lorient v Stade Brestois 2940% / 32% / 28%FC Lorient1–0 (10%)
2026-10-31OGC Nice v Stade Rennais FC 190131% / 31% / 38%Stade Rennais FC 19010–1 (9%)
2026-10-31Olympique Lyonnais v Angers SCO70% / 19% / 11%Olympique Lyonnais2–0 (12%)
2026-11-01Olympique de Marseille v Toulouse FC46% / 28% / 26%Olympique de Marseille1–0 (10%)
2026-11-01Paris FC v AS Monaco FC45% / 27% / 28%Paris FC1–0 (8%)
2026-11-01RC Strasbourg Alsace v AJ Auxerre48% / 30% / 22%RC Strasbourg Alsace1–0 (11%)

Premier League

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-31AFC Bournemouth v Leeds United FC57% / 25% / 18%AFC Bournemouth1–0 (10%)
2026-10-31Aston Villa FC v Fulham FC39% / 29% / 32%Aston Villa FC1–0 (11%)
2026-10-31Brentford FC v Nottingham Forest FC35% / 31% / 34%Brentford FC1–0 (11%)
2026-10-31Chelsea FC v Manchester United FC41% / 27% / 32%Chelsea FC1–0 (9%)
2026-10-31Coventry City FC v Sunderland AFC35% / 31% / 34%Coventry City FC1–0 (10%)
2026-10-31Hull City AFC v Ipswich Town FC40% / 29% / 31%Hull City AFC1–0 (9%)
2026-10-31Manchester City FC v Brighton & Hove Albion FC67% / 19% / 14%Manchester City FC1–0 (12%)
2026-10-31Tottenham Hotspur FC v Crystal Palace FC47% / 27% / 26%Tottenham Hotspur FC1–0 (9%)
2026-11-01Liverpool FC v Arsenal FC27% / 24% / 49%Arsenal FC0–1 (9%)
2026-11-02Newcastle United FC v Everton FC39% / 28% / 33%Newcastle United FC1–0 (10%)

La Liga

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-11-01Athletic Club v Real Sociedad de Fútbol46% / 29% / 25%Athletic Club1–0 (11%)
2026-11-01Elche CF v Valencia CF34% / 36% / 30%Draw1–1 (12%)
2026-11-01FC Barcelona v Deportivo Alavés82% / 11% / 7%FC Barcelona2–0 (16%)
2026-11-01Getafe CF v Sevilla FC36% / 32% / 31%Getafe CF1–0 (10%)
2026-11-01Levante UD v Club Atlético de Madrid20% / 24% / 57%Club Atlético de Madrid0–1 (11%)
2026-11-01RC Deportivo La Coruña v CA Osasuna41% / 33% / 26%RC Deportivo La Coruña1–0 (9%)
2026-11-01Rayo Vallecano de Madrid v RC Celta de Vigo43% / 28% / 28%Rayo Vallecano de Madrid1–0 (10%)
2026-11-01Real Betis Balompié v Málaga CF68% / 21% / 11%Real Betis Balompié2–0 (15%)
2026-11-01Real Racing Club de Santander v Real Madrid CF17% / 20% / 62%Real Madrid CF0–1 (12%)
2026-11-01Villarreal CF v RCD Espanyol de Barcelona75% / 15% / 10%Villarreal CF1–0 (12%)

📊 This week against trend

76 fixtures · 92 clubs with enough history to compare. Each club is measured against its own mean in completed seasons before 2026-27, not against a league average.

The slate as a whole

MetricThis weekClub normDiffDirection
npxG conceded1.531.28+0.24↑ worse
xG conceded1.631.40+0.22↑ worse
npxG created1.531.30+0.22↑ better
Deep completions allowed6.986.12+0.86↑ worse
xG created1.631.43+0.20↑ better
PPDA (pressing)13.3611.96+1.40↑ worse
Deep completions7.026.20+0.82↑ better
xG per shot0.1200.115+0.004↑ better
Deep share0.5020.504-0.002↓ worse
Expected points1.401.40-0.00level

Furthest from their own norm

ClubMetricNowNormDirectionFixture
FC LorientPPDA (pressing)25.6715.05↑ worseFC Lorient v Stade Brestois 29
Udinese CalcionpxG conceded2.271.27↑ worseParma Calcio 1913 v Udinese Calcio
Udinese CalcionpxG conceded2.271.27↑ worseUdinese Calcio v AS Roma
Olympique de MarseillexG conceded2.121.19↑ worseOlympique de Marseille v Toulouse FC
1. FC Union BerlinDeep completions allowed11.046.35↑ worse1. FC Union Berlin v 1. FC Köln
1. FSV Mainz 05xG per shot0.1640.115↑ betterSV 07 Elversberg v 1. FSV Mainz 05
Villarreal CFxG per shot0.1810.132↑ betterVillarreal CF v RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
Udinese CalcioxG conceded2.291.44↑ worseParma Calcio 1913 v Udinese Calcio

"Now" is the exponentially weighted form the model actually used, which early in a season still carries the back end of the last one. Rows are ranked by how large the gap is relative to how much clubs differ on that metric at all, so an xG swing and a PPDA swing are comparable. A club with fewer than 20 prior-season matches has no norm and is left out rather than compared against someone else's.

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

WindowGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Last 7 days0——
Last 30 days0——
Season to date30648.4%1.0152

Season record by league

LeagueGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Bundesliga3650.0%0.9618
Championship8243.9%1.0730
Premier League4940.8%1.0547
La Liga5850.0%0.9553
Ligue 13548.6%1.0746
Serie A4660.9%0.9422

No matches graded in the past week.

🔮 Final-table forecasts

Premier League — Manchester City FC 48% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Manchester City FC1581.51.948%96%3%<1%
2Arsenal FC1280.72.043%96%3%<1%
3Liverpool FC967.14.75%59%20%<1%
4Brighton & Hove Albion FC1061.56.52%36%23%1%
5Manchester United FC556.48.31%19%20%2%
6Brentford FC955.88.61%17%19%3%
7Leeds United FC955.38.81%16%18%3%
8Newcastle United FC853.39.6<1%12%16%4%
9Chelsea FC753.49.6<1%12%15%5%
10Aston Villa FC452.89.8<1%11%15%5%
11Everton FC951.210.5<1%8%12%6%
12AFC Bournemouth351.110.6<1%8%13%7%
13Nottingham Forest FC546.812.4<1%4%7%14%
14Crystal Palace FC443.413.8<1%2%4%23%
15Fulham FC241.714.5<1%1%3%29%
16Sunderland AFC440.415.0<1%1%2%33%
17Coventry City FC339.515.4<1%1%2%37%
18Ipswich Town FC639.515.4<1%1%2%37%
19Tottenham Hotspur FC237.616.1<1%<1%1%45%
20Hull City AFC837.516.2<1%<1%1%45%

Bundesliga — FC Bayern München 65% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Bayern München1074.21.665%98%2%<1%
2Borussia Dortmund1267.32.724%88%8%<1%
3Bayer 04 Leverkusen758.44.95%56%21%<1%
4RB Leipzig653.26.72%33%22%2%
5SC Freiburg1052.27.11%29%22%3%
6VfB Stuttgart351.37.51%26%21%3%
71. FSV Mainz 05747.59.1<1%14%16%7%
8SV 07 Elversberg746.79.4<1%13%15%9%
9FC Augsburg744.810.3<1%9%13%12%
10TSG 1899 Hoffenheim344.210.5<1%8%12%14%
11Eintracht Frankfurt543.910.6<1%7%11%14%
12SC Paderborn 07443.810.7<1%7%11%15%
13SV Werder Bremen742.211.4<1%5%8%18%
14Hamburger SV339.212.7<1%3%6%30%
15FC Schalke 04539.212.7<1%3%6%29%
161. FC Köln436.913.6<1%2%3%39%
171. FC Union Berlin134.014.7<1%1%2%52%
18Borussia Mönchengladbach033.714.8<1%1%2%53%

La Liga — FC Barcelona 72% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Barcelona2189.51.472%100%<1%<1%
2Real Madrid CF1581.72.221%98%2%<1%
3Club Atlético de Madrid1675.13.26%89%9%<1%
4Real Betis Balompié1667.44.61%61%26%<1%
5Villarreal CF859.36.9<1%20%36%1%
6Athletic Club853.59.2<1%8%22%3%
7Real Sociedad de Fútbol1053.19.3<1%7%21%3%
8Sevilla FC1352.29.7<1%5%19%3%
9Rayo Vallecano de Madrid849.311.0<1%3%13%8%
10Deportivo Alavés1148.011.6<1%2%9%9%
11RC Celta de Vigo747.611.8<1%2%9%11%
12Real Racing Club de Santander744.813.1<1%1%5%17%
13CA Osasuna844.813.1<1%1%5%17%
14Levante UD544.413.2<1%1%6%19%
15Getafe CF844.113.4<1%1%5%19%
16Valencia CF443.413.8<1%1%4%22%
17RCD Espanyol de Barcelona742.714.1<1%1%3%24%
18RC Deportivo La Coruña1041.714.5<1%<1%2%27%
19Elche CF541.114.8<1%<1%2%31%
20Málaga CF327.819.1<1%<1%<1%88%

Serie A — FC Internazionale Milano 65% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Internazionale Milano1385.81.665%97%3%<1%
2AS Roma1376.83.216%78%15%<1%
3Juventus FC1070.64.66%54%26%<1%
4AC Milan1169.64.95%49%27%<1%
5SSC Napoli768.45.23%43%29%<1%
6SS Lazio1365.56.02%32%28%<1%
7Atalanta BC662.76.81%21%27%<1%
8Como 19071062.56.91%21%25%<1%
9Cagliari Calcio1247.911.7<1%1%4%5%
10Bologna FC 1909247.711.7<1%1%4%6%
11ACF Fiorentina446.812.1<1%1%4%7%
12US Sassuolo Calcio746.512.2<1%1%3%7%
13Frosinone Calcio1044.313.0<1%<1%2%10%
14Torino FC442.413.7<1%<1%1%16%
15Udinese Calcio442.313.7<1%<1%1%16%
16Parma Calcio 1913435.916.0<1%<1%<1%38%
17US Lecce635.516.2<1%<1%<1%40%
18Genoa CFC134.616.4<1%<1%<1%45%
19AC Monza434.116.6<1%<1%<1%47%
20Venezia FC030.817.6<1%<1%<1%62%

Ligue 1 — Paris Saint-Germain FC 61% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Paris Saint-Germain FC872.01.761%96%3%<1%
2AS Monaco FC1363.33.716%72%16%<1%
3Lille OSC1059.34.88%54%22%<1%
4Olympique Lyonnais1158.94.97%52%22%<1%
5Stade Rennais FC 19011055.36.13%36%24%1%
6Paris FC1151.77.42%22%22%2%
7Racing Club de Lens451.47.51%21%21%2%
8RC Strasbourg Alsace750.97.71%20%21%2%
9Olympique de Marseille348.48.7<1%13%18%4%
10FC Lorient542.011.3<1%4%8%13%
11Toulouse FC541.811.4<1%3%7%15%
12Stade Brestois 29539.612.2<1%2%5%20%
13OGC Nice539.612.3<1%2%5%21%
14AJ Auxerre637.912.9<1%1%3%27%
15Angers SCO735.214.0<1%1%2%38%
16ESTAC Troyes434.314.3<1%<1%1%43%
17Le Mans FC632.414.9<1%<1%1%52%
18Havre AC230.415.5<1%<1%0%62%

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (30,000 replays of the remaining fixtures with live in-sim Elo). Proj = projected finish ordered by expected position; xPts / xPos = expected points and position; UCL = top 4, UEL = 5th–6th, Rel = bottom 3.

🇺🇸 MLS — Shield, playoffs and MLS Cup

Eastern Conference — Nashville SC 30% to reach MLS Cup

SeedTeamPtsxPtsPlayoffs1 seedConfCupShield
1.0Nashville SC7075.4100%100%30%20%100%
2.5Inter Miami CF5560.4100%<1%24%15%<1%
2.7New England Revolution5559.1100%<1%9%4%<1%
3.9Chicago Fire FC5155.6100%<1%9%4%<1%
5.4Charlotte FC4751.6100%<1%8%4%<1%
5.7Philadelphia Union4650.3100%<1%10%5%<1%
7.6Orlando City SC4245.994%<1%4%2%<1%
7.9FC Cincinnati4245.791%<1%4%2%<1%
9.5New York Red Bulls3942.548%<1%1%<1%<1%
9.6Columbus Crew3842.349%<1%1%1%<1%
10.9New York City FC3540.513%<1%<1%<1%<1%
11.5Toronto FC3639.76%<1%<1%<1%<1%
13.0D.C. United3335.9<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
13.7Atlanta United FC3033.4<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
15.0CF Montréal2527.5<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%

Western Conference — Vancouver Whitecaps FC 29% to reach MLS Cup

SeedTeamPtsxPtsPlayoffs1 seedConfCupShield
1.4Vancouver Whitecaps FC5560.6100%69%29%15%<1%
1.9FC Dallas5459.4100%29%18%8%<1%
3.1St. Louis City SC5155.7100%3%12%5%<1%
4.5San Jose Earthquakes4852.5100%<1%7%2%<1%
5.0Houston Dynamo FC4851.8100%<1%8%3%<1%
5.7Los Angeles FC4750.1100%<1%13%6%<1%
7.2Seattle Sounders FC4347.397%<1%7%3%<1%
8.2Colorado Rapids4245.484%<1%3%1%<1%
9.5LA Galaxy4143.953%<1%1%<1%<1%
9.6Real Salt Lake3943.047%<1%1%<1%<1%
11.3Portland Timbers3740.712%<1%<1%<1%<1%
12.2Minnesota United FC3539.73%<1%<1%<1%<1%
12.5San Diego FC3538.92%<1%<1%<1%<1%
13.0Austin FC3438.12%<1%<1%<1%<1%
15.0Sporting Kansas City2224.5<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%

44 regular-season matches left, replayed 20,000 times with live in-sim Elo, then the full playoff bracket each time. Seed = expected conference finish; 1 seed = finishing top of the conference; Conf = reaching MLS Cup; Shield = best record in the league. MLS publishes no machine-readable fixture list, so the run-in is reconstructed from the league's format: 41 conference fixtures are exact, and the 3 cross-conference ones are known only as per-club home/away counts, so every replay draws its own pairing of them.

Glued club Elo (top-5 leagues + UEFA cross-play) with a squad-economics outcome model · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/soccer

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