๐ NFL ELO
2026 ยท WEEK 8 ยท RUN 2026-10-30Betting-blind NFL Elo (K=20, +48 home, +20 off a bye, margin-weighted, 40% off-season regression) tuned on 2005โ2023; 2024โ25 holdout log-loss 0.624 and 66% straight up across every game incl. playoffs, against 0.691 for always-pick-home. Every game since 1999 on one Elo scale, franchise-continuous across the St. Louis, San Diego and Oakland moves: K=20, +48 Elo at home, +20 for a side off its bye, margin of victory capped at 45 points before it feeds the update, and 40% regression to 1500 every off-season. Parameters were fit on 2005โ2023 and checked on 2024โ25 held out; the daily job replays all ~7,000 games from scratch each morning, so there is no rating state that can drift. Unlike the LightGBM picks model in the weekly report, this one never sees a market number.
All 32 teams by Elo โ pick a conference or division to narrow the board.
| 1 | 1 | SEA ยท Seattle Seahawks | NFC West | 4โ3 | 1โ1 | +43 | 1652 | 0 |
| 2 | 4 | BUF ยท Buffalo Bills | AFC East | 5โ1 | 0โ1 | +26 | 1640 | +47 |
| 3 | 11 | MIN ยท Minnesota Vikings | NFC North | 6โ0 | 2โ0 | +51 | 1627 | +85 |
| 4 | 9 | SF ยท San Francisco 49ers | NFC West | 6โ1 | 3โ0 | +58 | 1615 | +64 |
| 5 | 3 | DEN ยท Denver Broncos | AFC West | 5โ2 | 1โ1 | +3 | 1613 | +19 |
| 6 | 7 | JAX ยท Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC South | 4โ2 | 0โ1 | +50 | 1597 | +36 |
| 7 | 6 | NE ยท New England Patriots | AFC East | 4โ3 | 2โ0 | +17 | 1583 | -1 |
| 8 | 13 | CHI ยท Chicago Bears | NFC North | 5โ2 | 0โ2 | +37 | 1575 | +49 |
| 9 | 2 | LA ยท Los Angeles Rams | NFC West | 3โ4 | 0โ2 | +11 | 1569 | -27 |
| 10 | 17 | KC ยท Kansas City Chiefs | AFC West | 5โ1 | 3โ0 | +40 | 1561 | +70 |
| 11 | 10 | DET ยท Detroit Lions | NFC North | 4โ2 | 1โ0 | +19 | 1554 | +10 |
| 12 | 16 | PIT ยท Pittsburgh Steelers | AFC North | 5โ2 | 1โ1 | +15 | 1554 | +46 |
| 13 | 19 | CIN ยท Cincinnati Bengals | AFC North | 4โ2 | 1โ1 | +41 | 1554 | +78 |
| 14 | 15 | GB ยท Green Bay Packers | NFC North | 5โ3 | 1โ2 | +7 | 1538 | +15 |
| 15 | 12 | BAL ยท Baltimore Ravens | AFC North | 4โ3 | 0โ2 | +2 | 1516 | -20 |
| 16 | 5 | HOU ยท Houston Texans | AFC South | 2โ5 | 2โ1 | -5 | 1510 | -81 |
| 17 | 20 | ATL ยท Atlanta Falcons | NFC South | 3โ4 | 1โ1 | -2 | 1481 | +8 |
| 18 | 18 | TB ยท Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC South | 2โ5 | 1โ0 | +11 | 1470 | -11 |
| 19 | 28 | CLE ยท Cleveland Browns | AFC North | 5โ2 | 2โ0 | -13 | 1468 | +39 |
| 20 | 23 | DAL ยท Dallas Cowboys | NFC East | 3โ4 | 2โ1 | +9 | 1467 | +8 |
| 21 | 27 | NYG ยท New York Giants | NFC East | 4โ2โ1 | 1โ0 | +2 | 1464 | +35 |
| 22 | 8 | PHI ยท Philadelphia Eagles | NFC East | 2โ5 | 1โ1 | -48 | 1446 | -107 |
| 23 | 26 | CAR ยท Carolina Panthers | NFC South | 3โ4 | 1โ1 | -15 | 1436 | -3 |
| 24 | 21 | IND ยท Indianapolis Colts | AFC South | 2โ5 | 1โ1 | -26 | 1422 | -49 |
| 25 | 25 | NO ยท New Orleans Saints | NFC South | 2โ5 | 0โ1 | -32 | 1412 | -31 |
| 26 | 14 | LAC ยท Los Angeles Chargers | AFC West | 0โ6 | 0โ3 | -61 | 1410 | -113 |
| 27 | 22 | WAS ยท Washington Commanders | NFC East | 1โ4โ1 | 0โ2 | -40 | 1410 | -50 |
| 28 | 32 | LV ยท Las Vegas Raiders | AFC West | 3โ4 | 1โ1 | -14 | 1404 | +37 |
| 29 | 24 | MIA ยท Miami Dolphins | AFC East | 1โ5 | 1โ0 | -59 | 1388 | -71 |
| 30 | 29 | ARI ยท Arizona Cardinals | NFC West | 2โ5 | 1โ2 | -66 | 1378 | -25 |
| 31 | 30 | NYJ ยท New York Jets | AFC East | 2โ5 | 0โ2 | -13 | 1372 | -2 |
| 32 | 31 | TEN ยท Tennessee Titans | AFC South | 1โ6 | 1โ1 | -48 | 1318 | -53 |
Ratings after every game played through the run date; Pre is the team's rank on the morning of the season's first game (after the off-season regression, before any result) and ฮ pre the Elo moved since. Records and point differential are season-to-date, regular season. Click any header to re-sort.
Divisions by Avg Elo
| 1 | NFC North | 1573 | 1534 | 2 | MIN (1627) | GB (1538) |
| 2 | NFC West | 1553 | 1550 | 3 | SEA (1652) | ARI (1378) |
| 3 | AFC North | 1523 | 1487 | 0 | PIT (1554) | CLE (1468) |
| 4 | AFC West | 1497 | 1494 | 2 | DEN (1613) | LV (1404) |
| 5 | AFC East | 1496 | 1503 | 2 | BUF (1640) | NYJ (1372) |
| 6 | AFC South | 1461 | 1498 | 1 | JAX (1597) | TEN (1318) |
| 7 | NFC South | 1450 | 1459 | 0 | ATL (1481) | NO (1412) |
| 8 | NFC East | 1447 | 1475 | 0 | DAL (1467) | WAS (1410) |
One Elo scale across the league, so the gap between divisions is a real gap in expected results: a 25-Elo edge is worth about one point of spread. Preseason avg is the same average on the morning of the season's first game.
Data generated 2026-10-30 16:26:07 ยท run date 2026-10-30.