College Football Update

Run date 2026-09-12 · week 2 · the Elo board, the next 7 days of games, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts.

🏆 Elo top 25

#	Team	Conf	W-L	Pt diff	Elo
1	Indiana	Big Ten	1-0	+36	1941
2	Georgia	SEC	1-0	+60	1852
3	Ohio State	Big Ten	1-0	+53	1848
4	Oregon	Big Ten	1-0	+7	1841
5	Ole Miss	SEC	1-0	+3	1837
6	Texas	SEC	1-0	+52	1818
7	Miami	ACC	2-0	+109	1811
8	Notre Dame	Ind.	1-0	+28	1805
9	Alabama	SEC	1-0	+38	1778
10	Texas Tech	Big 12	1-0	+23	1756
11	Iowa	Big Ten	1-0	+40	1746
12	Texas A&M	SEC	1-0	+50	1744
13	Vanderbilt	SEC	1-0	+19	1743
14	Utah	Big 12	1-0	+52	1737
15	Penn State	Big Ten	1-0	+45	1730
16	Oklahoma	SEC	1-0	+51	1723
17	USC	Big Ten	2-0	+55	1714
18	Washington	Big Ten	1-0	+14	1703
19	BYU	Big 12	1-0	+56	1701
20	SMU	ACC	1-0	+3	1695
21	Michigan	Big Ten	1-0	+1	1684
22	Missouri	SEC	2-0	+57	1682
23	LSU	SEC	1-0	+41	1678
24	Duke	ACC	1-0	+14	1657
25	Tennessee	SEC	1-0	+47	1657

Conferences by average Elo

#	Conference	Teams	Avg	Top 4	Median	Bottom 4	In top 25	Best team
1	SEC	16	1672	1821	1680	1521	10	Georgia (1852)
2	FBS Independents	2	1648	—	1648	—	1	Notre Dame (1805)
3	Big Ten	18	1632	1844	1632	1432	8	Indiana (1941)
4	Big 12	16	1556	1709	1585	1400	3	Texas Tech (1756)
5	ACC	17	1533	1702	1533	1390	3	Miami (1811)
6	American Athletic	14	1414	1542	1495	1248	0	Navy (1578)
7	Pac-12	8	1391	1469	1450	1313	0	Boise State (1496)
8	Sun Belt	14	1381	1508	1375	1264	0	James Madison (1629)
9	Mountain West	10	1320	1416	1335	1216	0	New Mexico (1489)
10	Mid-American	13	1282	1421	1252	1175	0	Western Michigan (1477)
11	Conference USA	10	1266	1329	1282	1196	0	Kennesaw State (1375)

One Elo scale across all of FBS; Top 4 / Median / Bottom 4 are each conference's ceiling, middle and floor next to its average.

📅 Games this week

2026-09-12 · 80 games

Matchup (home in bold)	Pick	Win prob	Exp. score (winner first)	Exp. total
North Dakota State @ Air Force	Air Force	59%	26.5–23.0	49.5
Robert Morris @ Akron (FCS)	Akron	87%	36.4–17.8	54.2
West Georgia @ Arkansas State (FCS)	Arkansas State	94%	42.0–16.2	58.2
South Florida @ Army	Army	55%	27.6–25.4	53.0
Southern Miss @ Auburn	Auburn	84%	33.8–17.5	51.3
Arizona @ BYU	BYU	65%	28.9–22.9	51.7
Stony Brook @ Ball State (FCS)	Ball State	84%	34.5–18.1	52.6
Prairie View A&M @ Baylor (FCS)	Baylor	97%	46.8–14.6	61.4
Memphis @ Boise State	Boise State	55%	29.1–27.2	56.3
Colgate @ Central Michigan (FCS)	Central Michigan	90%	37.2–15.7	52.9
Western Carolina @ Cincinnati (FCS)	Cincinnati	97%	46.4–11.7	58.1
Georgia Southern @ Clemson	Clemson	73%	31.7–22.0	53.7
Fordham @ Coastal Carolina (FCS)	Coastal Carolina	93%	41.1–16.8	57.9
Weber State @ Colorado (FCS)	Colorado	96%	42.6–13.0	55.6
Southern Utah @ Colorado State (FCS)	Colorado State	90%	37.9–16.2	54.1
App State @ East Carolina	East Carolina	78%	33.9–21.6	55.5
Campbell @ Florida (FCS)	Florida	98%	47.9–9.9	57.7
Navy @ Florida Atlantic	Navy	81%	36.2–22.3	58.5
Buffalo @ Florida International	Florida International	60%	28.3–24.4	52.7
Sacramento State @ Fresno State	Fresno State	82%	31.5–16.9	48.4
Western Kentucky @ Georgia	Georgia	97%	42.8–9.2	52.1
Tennessee @ Georgia Tech	Tennessee	61%	31.2–27.1	58.3
New Mexico State @ Hawai'i	Hawai'i	78%	32.4–20.2	52.6
Southern @ Houston (FCS)	Houston	98%	47.4–9.2	56.6
Duke @ Illinois	Illinois	55%	28.3–26.2	54.5
Howard @ Indiana (FCS)	Indiana	100%	61.0–3.2	64.2
Iowa State @ Iowa	Iowa	75%	28.2–17.4	45.7
Wagner @ James Madison (FCS)	James Madison	99%	51.5–11.0	62.5
Washington State @ Kansas State	Kansas State	76%	32.0–21.0	53.0
Georgia State @ Kennesaw State	Kennesaw State	77%	33.4–21.9	55.3
Wofford @ Kent State (FCS)	Kent State	86%	35.8–18.4	54.2
Alabama @ Kentucky	Alabama	74%	29.7–19.5	49.1
Louisiana Tech @ LSU	LSU	86%	34.4–16.5	50.9
Gardner-Webb @ Liberty (FCS)	Liberty	89%	39.1–19.2	58.3
Middle Tennessee @ Marshall	Marshall	82%	34.7–20.2	55.0
Sacred Heart @ Massachusetts (FCS)	Massachusetts	79%	32.9–20.2	53.1
Holy Cross @ Miami (OH) (FCS)	Miami (OH)	92%	38.7–14.5	53.3
Oklahoma @ Michigan	Michigan	52%	23.0–22.3	45.3
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan State	Michigan State	84%	33.5–17.3	50.8
Mississippi State @ Minnesota	Minnesota	74%	31.6–21.6	53.3
Lindenwood @ Missouri State (FCS)	Missouri State	89%	38.7–18.3	57.0
Bowling Green @ Nebraska	Nebraska	94%	37.0–10.8	47.8
Montana State @ Nevada (FCS)	Nevada	93%	39.1–14.6	53.7
Mercyhurst @ New Mexico (FCS)	New Mexico	97%	45.5–12.8	58.2
East Tennessee State @ North Carolina (FCS)	North Carolina	96%	42.8–12.1	54.9
UNLV @ North Texas	North Texas	64%	34.9–29.2	64.0
Illinois State @ Northern Illinois (FCS)	Northern Illinois	87%	34.7–16.4	51.2
Rice @ Notre Dame	Notre Dame	96%	43.1–12.1	55.3
Jacksonville State @ Ohio	Ohio	74%	30.6–20.6	51.2
Oregon @ Oklahoma State	Oregon	96%	42.2–12.6	54.8
Charlotte @ Ole Miss	Ole Miss	99%	49.8–8.7	58.5
Texas Tech @ Oregon State	Texas Tech	94%	39.6–13.1	52.7
UCF @ Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh	72%	32.8–23.4	56.2
Wake Forest @ Purdue	Wake Forest	63%	29.4–24.4	53.9
UC Davis @ SMU (FCS)	SMU	99%	52.8–8.7	61.5
Tulsa @ Sam Houston	Tulsa	62%	28.9–24.2	53.1
Cal Poly @ San José State (FCS)	San José State	89%	38.7–18.3	57.0
Towson @ South Carolina (FCS)	South Carolina	98%	47.1–9.3	56.4
California @ Syracuse	Syracuse	54%	28.8–27.1	55.9
Grambling @ TCU (FCS)	TCU	98%	49.1–10.4	59.5
Penn State @ Temple	Penn State	88%	36.7–17.2	53.9
Ohio State @ Texas	Texas	53%	24.3–23.1	47.4
Arizona State @ Texas A&M	Texas A&M	77%	32.3–20.6	52.9
UTSA @ Texas State	Texas State	54%	33.4–31.9	65.3
Central Connecticut @ Toledo (FCS)	Toledo	95%	42.7–14.0	56.6
Alabama State @ Troy (FCS)	Troy	95%	41.7–13.1	54.9
South Alabama @ Tulane	Tulane	80%	33.3–20.0	53.3
UL Monroe @ UAB	UAB	68%	32.1–24.7	56.7
San Diego State @ UCLA	UCLA	67%	28.1–21.1	49.2
Maryland @ UConn	UConn	65%	31.1–25.2	56.3
Louisiana @ USC	USC	90%	38.9–17.8	56.6
Texas Southern @ UTEP (FCS)	UTEP	81%	34.6–20.7	55.3
Arkansas @ Utah	Utah	84%	38.1–21.7	59.9
Delaware @ Vanderbilt	Vanderbilt	94%	42.1–15.6	57.8
Old Dominion @ Virginia Tech	Old Dominion	66%	28.9–22.5	51.4
Utah State @ Washington	Washington	93%	41.0–15.2	56.2
UT Martin @ West Virginia (FCS)	West Virginia	97%	45.2–12.7	57.9
Monmouth @ Western Michigan (FCS)	Western Michigan	97%	43.4–11.3	54.6
Western Illinois @ Wisconsin (FCS)	Wisconsin	97%	40.7–7.0	47.7
Northern Colorado @ Wyoming (FCS)	Wyoming	86%	33.2–15.4	48.6

2026-09-17 · 1 games

Matchup (home in bold)	Pick	Win prob	Exp. score (winner first)	Exp. total
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh	81%	36.3–22.1	58.4

2026-09-18 · 3 games

Matchup (home in bold)	Pick	Win prob	Exp. score (winner first)	Exp. total
Portland State @ Oregon (FCS)	Oregon	100%	57.7–5.4	63.1
Houston @ Texas Tech	Texas Tech	78%	32.3–20.1	52.5
Miami @ Wake Forest	Miami	78%	32.9–20.6	53.5

Win probability straight from Elo (home edge applied except at neutral sites, marked N). Expected score is the Elo-implied margin carved out of a matchup-specific total (each program's recent points for/against, shrunk to the FBS mean); read it as an average, not a literal final. FCS opponents are one pooled rating, so those lines are the least informative on the slate.

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

Window	Correct	Accuracy	Log loss	ΔLL vs always-home
Last 7 days	70/78	89.7%	0.2556	-0.2608 ± 0.0407
Last 30 days	79/89	88.8%	0.2820	-0.2394 ± 0.0461
Season to date	79/89	88.8%	0.2820	-0.2394 ± 0.0461
Season, FBS vs. FBS only	33/40	82.5%	0.4036	-0.1539 ± 0.0723

ΔLL is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast on the same games (p = 0.632, coin flip at neutral sites), ± one standard error; negative = beating the baseline. Hit rate is inflated by FBS-vs-FCS games, which is why the FBS-only row exists.

Past week: 70/78 picks correct

	Date	Game	Pick	Final (home first)	Log loss
✅	2026-09-05	Duquesne @ Air Force	Air Force (92%)	34–0	0.08
✅	2026-09-05	East Carolina @ Alabama	Alabama (85%)	48–10	0.17
✅	2026-09-05	Maine @ App State	App State (92%)	55–3	0.09
✅	2026-09-05	Northern Arizona @ Arizona	Arizona (99%)	35–7	0.01
✅	2026-09-05	Morgan State @ Arizona State	Arizona State (98%)	70–7	0.02
✅	2026-09-05	North Alabama @ Arkansas	Arkansas (97%)	31–14	0.03
✅	2026-09-05	Bryant @ Army	Army (97%)	59–3	0.03
✅	2026-09-05	Baylor vs. Auburn (N)	Auburn (59%)	17–16	0.53
✅	2026-09-05	Utah Tech @ BYU	BYU (99%)	63–7	0.01
❌	2026-09-05	Tarleton State @ Bowling Green	Bowling Green (87%)	13–20	2.02
❌	2026-09-05	UCLA @ California	California (53%)	24–45	0.76
❌	2026-09-05	The Citadel @ Charlotte	Charlotte (83%)	41–43	1.80
✅	2026-09-05	Boston College @ Cincinnati	Cincinnati (69%)	34–15	0.37
✅	2026-09-05	Wyoming @ Colorado State	Colorado State (53%)	35–13	0.64
✅	2026-09-05	Tulane @ Duke	Duke (65%)	17–3	0.44
✅	2026-09-05	Florida Atlantic @ Florida	Florida (87%)	66–21	0.14
✅	2026-09-05	Tennessee State @ Georgia	Georgia (100%)	63–3	0.00
✅	2026-09-05	Charleston Southern @ Georgia Southern	Georgia Southern (95%)	31–0	0.05
❌	2026-09-05	UNLV @ Hawai'i	Hawai'i (55%)	6–21	0.80
✅	2026-09-05	Oregon State @ Houston	Houston (91%)	33–20	0.10
✅	2026-09-05	North Texas @ Indiana	Indiana (93%)	52–16	0.07
✅	2026-09-05	Northern Illinois @ Iowa	Iowa (96%)	40–0	0.04
✅	2026-09-05	Southeast Missouri State @ Iowa State	Iowa State (98%)	38–10	0.02
✅	2026-09-05	Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville State	Jacksonville State (92%)	49–7	0.09
✅	2026-09-05	Liberty @ James Madison	James Madison (91%)	20–13	0.09
✅	2026-09-05	Nicholls @ Kansas State	Kansas State (98%)	71–3	0.02
✅	2026-09-05	Youngstown State @ Kentucky	Kentucky (98%)	45–13	0.02
✅	2026-09-05	Clemson @ LSU	LSU (61%)	51–10	0.49
✅	2026-09-05	Lamar @ Louisiana	Louisiana (94%)	38–7	0.06
✅	2026-09-05	Northwestern State @ Louisiana Tech	Louisiana Tech (95%)	80–6	0.05
✅	2026-09-05	Hampton @ Maryland	Maryland (96%)	62–0	0.05
✅	2026-09-05	Arkansas State @ Memphis	Memphis (69%)	42–24	0.37
✅	2026-09-05	Western Michigan @ Michigan	Michigan (81%)	13–12	0.22
✅	2026-09-05	Murray State @ Middle Tennessee	Middle Tennessee (83%)	38–14	0.19
✅	2026-09-05	UL Monroe @ Mississippi State	Mississippi State (86%)	62–13	0.16
✅	2026-09-05	Towson @ Navy	Navy (98%)	42–15	0.02
✅	2026-09-05	Ohio @ Nebraska	Nebraska (64%)	49–21	0.45
❌	2026-09-05	Western Kentucky @ Nevada	Western Kentucky (57%)	49–14	0.85
✅	2026-09-05	Central Michigan @ New Mexico	New Mexico (76%)	38–7	0.28
✅	2026-09-05	Mercyhurst @ New Mexico State	New Mexico State (82%)	51–14	0.19
✅	2026-09-05	Fordham @ North Dakota State	North Dakota State (92%)	38–0	0.08
✅	2026-09-05	South Dakota State @ Northwestern	Northwestern (98%)	34–18	0.02
✅	2026-09-05	Ball State @ Ohio State	Ohio State (98%)	56–3	0.02
✅	2026-09-05	Norfolk State @ Old Dominion	Old Dominion (98%)	31–10	0.02
✅	2026-09-05	Boise State @ Oregon	Oregon (90%)	34–27	0.10
✅	2026-09-05	Marshall @ Penn State	Penn State (89%)	45–0	0.12
✅	2026-09-05	Miami (OH) @ Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh (80%)	59–14	0.23
✅	2026-09-05	Houston Christian @ Rice	Rice (90%)	31–3	0.10
✅	2026-09-05	Mississippi Valley State @ Sacramento State	Sacramento State (86%)	52–0	0.15
✅	2026-09-05	Portland State @ San Diego State	San Diego State (96%)	53–20	0.04
✅	2026-09-05	SE Louisiana @ South Alabama	South Alabama (93%)	39–14	0.07
✅	2026-09-05	Kent State @ South Carolina	South Carolina (91%)	57–0	0.10
✅	2026-09-05	Florida International @ South Florida	South Florida (80%)	19–9	0.22
✅	2026-09-05	Alcorn State @ Southern Miss	Southern Miss (91%)	49–3	0.09
✅	2026-09-05	New Hampshire @ Syracuse	Syracuse (93%)	66–3	0.07
✅	2026-09-05	Rhode Island @ Temple	Temple (92%)	38–14	0.09
✅	2026-09-05	Furman @ Tennessee	Tennessee (99%)	56–9	0.01
✅	2026-09-05	Texas State @ Texas	Texas (90%)	59–7	0.11
✅	2026-09-05	Missouri State @ Texas A&M	Texas A&M (95%)	50–0	0.05
✅	2026-09-05	Abilene Christian @ Texas Tech	Texas Tech (99%)	33–10	0.01
✅	2026-09-05	Sam Houston @ Troy	Troy (85%)	24–21	0.16
❌	2026-09-05	Oklahoma State @ Tulsa	Oklahoma State (52%)	24–10	0.74
✅	2026-09-05	Lafayette @ UConn	UConn (97%)	56–7	0.03
✅	2026-09-05	UT Rio Grande Valley @ UTSA	UTSA (97%)	45–16	0.03
❌	2026-09-05	Idaho State @ Utah State	Utah State (94%)	17–29	2.79
✅	2026-09-05	Austin Peay @ Vanderbilt	Vanderbilt (99%)	28–9	0.01
✅	2026-09-05	VMI @ Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech (94%)	73–3	0.06
✅	2026-09-05	Coastal Carolina @ West Virginia	West Virginia (71%)	31–24	0.34
✅	2026-09-06	Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame (N)	Notre Dame (82%)	41–13	0.20
✅	2026-09-06	Louisville vs. Ole Miss (N)	Ole Miss (76%)	41–38	0.28
✅	2026-09-06	Washington State @ Washington	Washington (82%)	24–10	0.19
✅	2026-09-07	SMU @ Florida State	SMU (73%)	24–27	0.31
✅	2026-09-10	Florida A&M @ Miami	Miami (99%)	77–7	0.01
❌	2026-09-11	Rutgers @ Boston College	Rutgers (52%)	28–21	0.74
✅	2026-09-11	Missouri @ Kansas	Missouri (65%)	21–38	0.43
✅	2026-09-11	Villanova @ Louisville	Louisville (98%)	59–13	0.02
✅	2026-09-11	Richmond @ NC State	NC State (97%)	73–0	0.03
✅	2026-09-11	Norfolk State @ Virginia	Virginia (99%)	59–3	0.01

🔮 Season forecasts

Projected wins — top 25

#	Team	Conf	W-L	Proj W-L	Bowl	Undefeated	CCG	Conf title
1	Indiana	Big Ten	1-0	10.6-1.4	100%	23%	63%	43%
2	Miami	ACC	2-0	10.2-1.8	100%	14%	68%	46%
3	Texas Tech	Big 12	1-0	10.1-1.9	100%	15%	56%	32%
4	Notre Dame	Ind.	1-0	9.9-2.1	100%	12%	—	—
5	Oregon	Big Ten	1-0	9.6-2.4	100%	8%	35%	17%
6	James Madison	Sun Belt	1-0	9.6-2.4	99%	9%	58%	41%
7	Georgia	SEC	1-0	9.4-2.6	99%	7%	38%	23%
8	SMU	ACC	1-0	9.4-2.6	99%	5%	46%	21%
9	Ole Miss	SEC	1-0	9.2-2.8	99%	5%	31%	19%
10	Utah	Big 12	1-0	9.2-2.8	98%	6%	36%	21%
11	Penn State	Big Ten	1-0	9.2-2.8	99%	5%	25%	9%
12	Virginia	ACC	2-0	9.1-2.9	99%	4%	27%	11%
13	Alabama	SEC	1-0	8.8-3.2	97%	4%	25%	12%
14	Ohio State	Big Ten	1-0	8.7-3.3	97%	2%	24%	13%
15	New Mexico	MWC	1-0	8.7-3.3	97%	2%	55%	34%
16	Texas	SEC	1-0	8.6-3.4	96%	3%	31%	16%
17	Iowa	Big Ten	1-0	8.6-3.4	96%	3%	16%	6%
18	Navy	American	1-0	8.6-3.4	96%	2%	49%	28%
19	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	1-0	8.6-3.4	95%	3%	41%	24%
20	South Florida	American	1-0	8.6-3.4	96%	3%	18%	9%
21	BYU	Big 12	1-0	8.4-3.6	94%	2%	29%	15%
22	Vanderbilt	SEC	1-0	8.3-3.7	94%	2%	19%	9%
23	Pittsburgh	ACC	1-0	8.2-3.8	93%	1%	11%	4%
24	Memphis	American	2-0	8.2-3.8	95%	1%	16%	8%
25	UConn	Ind.	1-0	8.2-3.8	92%	2%	—	—

Conference title races

Conference	Favorites
ACC	Miami 46%, SMU 21%, Virginia 11%, Louisville 7%
American Athletic	Navy 28%, North Texas 13%, Tulane 12%, Army 11%
Big 12	Texas Tech 32%, Utah 21%, BYU 15%, Kansas State 6%
Big Ten	Indiana 43%, Oregon 17%, Ohio State 13%, Penn State 9%
Conference USA	Kennesaw State 26%, Jacksonville State 15%, Delaware 13%, Western Kentucky 12%
Mid-American	Western Michigan 30%, Ohio 27%, Toledo 19%, Miami (OH) 8%
Mountain West	New Mexico 34%, UNLV 33%, Air Force 8%, Nevada 7%
Pac-12	Boise State 26%, Texas State 21%, San Diego State 18%, Washington State 17%
SEC	Georgia 23%, Ole Miss 19%, Texas 16%, Alabama 12%
Sun Belt	James Madison 41%, Old Dominion 24%, Louisiana 6%, Georgia Southern 5%

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (10,000 replays of the 783 remaining regular-season games with live in-sim Elo). Bowl = 6+ wins; CCG = reaching the conference championship game (top two by conference record, ties random); the title game is simulated at a neutral site. The 12-team playoff is a committee pick and is not modeled.

Betting-blind FBS Elo (conference-aware season regression, pooled FCS opponent, margin-weighted updates) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/cfb