Predictions for every game on 2026-09-19 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees @ Diamondbacks | Cam Schlittler vs. Brandon Pfaadt | +16.4 / +3.6 | Yankees | 56% | 4.8–3.9 | 8.7 |
| Brewers @ Orioles | Robert Gasser vs. Trevor Rogers | -1.0 / +14.7 | Brewers | 55% | 5.1–4.2 | 9.3 |
| Tigers @ White Sox | Jackson Jobe vs. Sean Burke | -3.4 / +14.3 | White Sox | 53% | 4.6–4.5 | 9.0 |
| Cubs @ Reds | Matthew Boyd vs. Nick Lodolo | +6.3 / +22.8 | Cubs | 55% | 5.3–4.5 | 9.8 |
| Athletics @ Guardians | Jacob Lopez vs. Tanner Bibee | +19.5 / +6.3 | Guardians | 62% | 5.1–4.1 | 9.2 |
| Mariners @ Rockies | Bryce Miller vs. Jose Quintana | +4.0 / +27.2 | Mariners | 55% | 5.3–4.5 | 9.8 |
| Braves @ Astros | Grant Holmes vs. Hayden Wesneski | +0.1 / +1.6 | Braves | 52% | 4.5–4.1 | 8.6 |
| Twins @ Angels | Joe Ryan vs. Reid Detmers | +4.8 / +0.4 | Twins | 50% | 4.4–4.1 | 8.5 |
| Giants @ Dodgers | TBD vs. Tarik Skubal | +0.0 / +13.1 | Dodgers | 67% | 5.3–3.7 | 9.0 |
| Phillies @ Mets | Andrew Painter vs. Christian Scott | -28.4 / +6.9 | Mets | 53% | 4.5–4.4 | 8.9 |
| Royals @ Pirates | Noah Cameron vs. Bubba Chandler | +12.1 / -2.9 | Pirates | 55% | 4.5–4.2 | 8.7 |
| Marlins @ Padres | Eury Pérez vs. Casey Mize | +14.3 / -1.9 | Padres | 57% | 4.8–4.4 | 9.2 |
| Nationals @ Cardinals | Andrew Alvarez vs. Michael McGreevy | +6.8 / +3.0 | Cardinals | 54% | 4.8–4.6 | 9.3 |
| Red Sox @ Rays | TBD vs. Freddy Peralta | +0.0 / -8.7 | Rays | 51% | 4.4–4.3 | 8.6 |
| Blue Jays @ Rangers | José Soriano vs. Cal Quantrill | +0.5 / -6.4 | Rangers | 51% | 4.6–4.5 | 8.8 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb
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