MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-09-20
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 96%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 94-60 | +79 | 1536 | 97.7 | 96% | 100% |
| Yankees | 89-65 | +141 | 1552 | 93.6 | 4% | 100% |
| Orioles | 75-80 | -28 | 1495 | 78.2 | <1% | 1% |
| Red Sox | 84-71 | +84 | 1539 | 87.8 | <1% | 100% |
| Blue Jays | 76-79 | -47 | 1501 | 79.7 | <1% | 5% |
AL Central — Guardians 59%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Guardians | 80-75 | +1 | 1504 | 83.4 | 59% | 95% |
| White Sox | 79-76 | +35 | 1493 | 83.0 | 41% | 90% |
| Tigers | 73-82 | +75 | 1511 | 76.8 | <1% | <1% |
| Royals | 67-88 | -101 | 1474 | 70.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Twins | 72-83 | -72 | 1466 | 75.3 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Rangers 69%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rangers | 78-77 | -29 | 1496 | 81.6 | 69% | 72% |
| Astros | 77-78 | -57 | 1492 | 80.7 | 31% | 37% |
| Athletics | 61-94 | -222 | 1428 | 64.1 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 60-95 | -79 | 1448 | 63.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Mariners | 72-83 | -57 | 1485 | 75.9 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 91-65 | +113 | 1532 | 95.0 | 100% | 100% |
| Marlins | 76-79 | +1 | 1492 | 79.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Mets | 71-84 | -36 | 1497 | 74.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Phillies | 85-70 | +24 | 1531 | 88.5 | <1% | 98% |
| Nationals | 73-82 | +14 | 1478 | 76.2 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 97-58 | +199 | 1574 | 101.1 | 100% | 100% |
| Cubs | 86-69 | +144 | 1545 | 89.8 | <1% | 100% |
| Reds | 72-83 | -155 | 1465 | 74.8 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 78-77 | +28 | 1503 | 81.7 | <1% | <1% |
| Cardinals | 75-80 | -25 | 1484 | 77.9 | <1% | <1% |
NL West — Dodgers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 95-60 | +191 | 1564 | 99.1 | 100% | 100% |
| Diamondbacks | 81-74 | -5 | 1504 | 84.6 | <1% | 4% |
| Rockies | 57-98 | -176 | 1409 | 59.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Padres | 86-69 | +37 | 1533 | 89.6 | <1% | 99% |
| Giants | 65-91 | -77 | 1472 | 68.2 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (96%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (85%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb