MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-09-21
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 99%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 95-60 | +83 | 1538 | 98.2 | 99% | 100% |
| Yankees | 89-66 | +137 | 1550 | 93.1 | 1% | 100% |
| Orioles | 75-81 | -31 | 1493 | 77.7 | <1% | <1% |
| Red Sox | 84-72 | +80 | 1536 | 87.3 | <1% | 100% |
| Blue Jays | 77-79 | -42 | 1504 | 80.2 | <1% | 5% |
AL Central — Guardians 56%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Guardians | 81-75 | +2 | 1505 | 83.8 | 56% | 98% |
| White Sox | 80-76 | +42 | 1496 | 83.5 | 44% | 96% |
| Tigers | 73-83 | +68 | 1508 | 76.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Royals | 67-89 | -102 | 1473 | 70.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Twins | 73-83 | -64 | 1469 | 75.9 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Rangers 68%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rangers | 78-78 | -34 | 1493 | 81.1 | 68% | 69% |
| Astros | 77-79 | -59 | 1490 | 80.2 | 32% | 32% |
| Mariners | 73-83 | -56 | 1486 | 76.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Athletics | 61-95 | -223 | 1427 | 63.8 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 60-96 | -87 | 1445 | 62.6 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 92-65 | +115 | 1534 | 95.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Marlins | 76-80 | -3 | 1490 | 78.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Mets | 71-85 | -41 | 1494 | 73.9 | <1% | <1% |
| Phillies | 86-70 | +29 | 1534 | 89.0 | <1% | 99% |
| Nationals | 73-83 | +12 | 1476 | 75.8 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 98-58 | +202 | 1576 | 101.6 | 100% | 100% |
| Cubs | 87-69 | +152 | 1548 | 90.3 | <1% | 100% |
| Reds | 72-84 | -163 | 1462 | 74.3 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 79-77 | +29 | 1504 | 82.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Cardinals | 76-80 | -23 | 1485 | 78.4 | <1% | <1% |
NL West — Dodgers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 96-60 | +193 | 1565 | 99.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Diamondbacks | 82-74 | -1 | 1507 | 85.1 | <1% | 2% |
| Rockies | 57-99 | -177 | 1408 | 59.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Padres | 87-69 | +41 | 1535 | 90.0 | <1% | 99% |
| Giants | 65-92 | -79 | 1471 | 67.8 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (99%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (87%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb