MLB Grade — 2026-09-23

How the 2026-09-23 predictions scored against actual results

Cumulative Δlog-loss vs always-pick-home: -0.0221 ± 0.0065 per game over 415 games (paired; negative = beating the baseline - currently ahead).

Yesterday	Correct	Log-loss
model	10/16	0.696
always-pick-home	8/16	0.696

Daily detail: 62% hit rate · Brier 0.252 · avg margin error 2.6 · avg total-runs error 2.8. Running: 246/415 (59.3%) · cumulative log-loss 0.670 · cumulative Brier 0.239

	Game	Pick	Predicted	Actual
✅	Angels @ Athletics	Athletics (51%)	4.7–4.6	7–3 (home first)
✅	Reds @ Braves	Braves (65%)	5.1–3.8	3–2 (home first)
✅	Blue Jays @ Orioles	Orioles (52%)	4.4–4.3	4–2 (home first)
✅	Guardians @ Red Sox	Red Sox (58%)	4.6–4	1–0 (home first)
❌	Marlins @ Cubs	Cubs (62%)	5.3–4.3	2–3 (home first)
✅	Diamondbacks @ Rockies	Diamondbacks (59%)	5.3–4	3–5 (home first)
❌	Nationals @ Tigers	Tigers (59%)	4.9–4.1	2–4 (home first)
❌	White Sox @ Royals	White Sox (53%)	4.9–4.3	5–4 (home first)
❌	Padres @ Dodgers	Dodgers (61%)	4.9–4	1–5 (home first)
✅	Rays @ Yankees	Yankees (56%)	4.4–4	9–2 (home first)
✅	Brewers @ Phillies	Brewers (58%)	5.1–3.9	1–4 (home first)
❌	Cardinals @ Pirates	Pirates (58%)	4.7–4.2	1–5 (home first)
✅	Astros @ Mariners	Mariners (52%)	4.6–4.5	6–5 (home first)
❌	Twins @ Giants	Giants (56%)	4.7–4.3	2–4 (home first)
✅	Mets @ Rangers	Mets (50%)	4.7–4.4	2–7 (home first)
✅	Blue Jays @ Orioles	Orioles (52%)	4.4–4.3	4–2 (home first)

The headline is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast (p=0.534) on the same games, ± one standard error; daily hit rate is noisy and demoted on purpose. Reference points: 0.693 is a coin flip; the model's walk-forward backtest runs 0.680 (research/SP-BACKTEST.md).

Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb