MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-09-24
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 96-62 | +79 | 1536 | 97.9 | 100% | 100% |
| Orioles | 78-81 | -26 | 1497 | 79.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Red Sox | 85-73 | +80 | 1536 | 87.2 | <1% | 100% |
| Yankees | 91-67 | +141 | 1551 | 93.4 | <1% | 100% |
| Blue Jays | 77-82 | -47 | 1500 | 78.7 | <1% | <1% |
AL Central — Guardians 62%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Guardians | 82-76 | +2 | 1505 | 84.0 | 62% | 100% |
| White Sox | 81-77 | +44 | 1497 | 83.5 | 38% | 100% |
| Tigers | 74-85 | +71 | 1506 | 75.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Royals | 68-90 | -104 | 1472 | 69.9 | <1% | <1% |
| Twins | 75-84 | -64 | 1470 | 76.5 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 56%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 78-80 | -53 | 1492 | 80.2 | 56% | 56% |
| Rangers | 78-80 | -42 | 1488 | 80.0 | 44% | 44% |
| Athletics | 63-95 | -217 | 1431 | 64.8 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 60-98 | -93 | 1441 | 61.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Mariners | 74-84 | -62 | 1483 | 76.4 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 93-66 | +112 | 1531 | 95.2 | 100% | 100% |
| Marlins | 78-80 | +4 | 1495 | 79.8 | <1% | <1% |
| Mets | 73-85 | -33 | 1499 | 75.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Phillies | 87-71 | +28 | 1534 | 89.1 | <1% | 98% |
| Nationals | 75-84 | +9 | 1478 | 76.5 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 99-59 | +203 | 1576 | 101.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Cubs | 87-71 | +145 | 1543 | 89.0 | <1% | 98% |
| Reds | 73-85 | -160 | 1465 | 74.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 80-78 | +27 | 1502 | 81.9 | <1% | <1% |
| Cardinals | 77-81 | -21 | 1486 | 78.5 | <1% | <1% |
NL West — Dodgers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 97-61 | +196 | 1564 | 99.4 | 100% | 100% |
| Diamondbacks | 84-74 | +6 | 1510 | 85.9 | <1% | 4% |
| Rockies | 57-101 | -184 | 1405 | 58.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Padres | 88-70 | +38 | 1535 | 90.1 | <1% | 99% |
| Giants | 66-94 | -79 | 1470 | 67.2 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (100%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (92%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb