How the 2026-09-24 predictions scored against actual results
Cumulative Δlog-loss vs always-pick-home: -0.0222 ± 0.0065 per game over 427 games (paired; negative = beating the baseline - currently ahead).
| Yesterday | Correct | Log-loss |
|---|---|---|
| model | 7/12 | 0.691 |
| always-pick-home | 4/12 | 0.718 |
Daily detail: 58% hit rate · Brier 0.249 · avg margin error 2.3 · avg total-runs error 4.3. Running: 253/427 (59.2%) · cumulative log-loss 0.670 · cumulative Brier 0.239
| Game | Pick | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ | Astros @ Athletics | Astros (57%) | 5.1–4.1 | 5–7 (home first) |
| ❌ | Reds @ Braves | Braves (63%) | 5–3.9 | 6–7 (home first) |
| ❌ | Guardians @ Red Sox | Red Sox (58%) | 4.5–3.9 | 0–1 (home first) |
| ✅ | Marlins @ Cubs | Cubs (60%) | 5.2–4.3 | 2–1 (home first) |
| ✅ | Diamondbacks @ Rockies | Diamondbacks (63%) | 5.5–3.8 | 8–12 (home first) |
| ✅ | White Sox @ Royals | White Sox (51%) | 4.8–4.4 | 1–9 (home first) |
| ❌ | Padres @ Dodgers | Dodgers (56%) | 4.6–4.2 | 2–4 (home first) |
| ✅ | Rays @ Yankees | Yankees (59%) | 4.6–3.9 | 6–4 (home first) |
| ✅ | Brewers @ Phillies | Brewers (57%) | 5–4 | 1–5 (home first) |
| ✅ | Cardinals @ Pirates | Pirates (57%) | 4.7–4.2 | 2–1 (home first) |
| ❌ | Angels @ Mariners | Mariners (64%) | 5–3.7 | 4–6 (home first) |
| ❌ | Mets @ Rangers | Mets (51%) | 4.7–4.3 | 3–1 (home first) |
The headline is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast (p=0.534) on the same games, ± one standard error; daily hit rate is noisy and demoted on purpose. Reference points: 0.693 is a coin flip; the model's walk-forward backtest runs 0.680 (research/SP-BACKTEST.md).
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb
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