MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-09-25
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 96-63 | +77 | 1535 | 97.4 | 100% | 100% |
| Orioles | 78-81 | -26 | 1497 | 79.1 | <1% | <1% |
| Red Sox | 85-74 | +79 | 1535 | 86.6 | <1% | 100% |
| Yankees | 92-67 | +143 | 1552 | 93.9 | <1% | 100% |
| Blue Jays | 77-82 | -47 | 1500 | 78.7 | <1% | <1% |
AL Central — Guardians 65%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Guardians | 83-76 | +3 | 1507 | 84.5 | 65% | 100% |
| White Sox | 82-77 | +52 | 1500 | 84.0 | 35% | 100% |
| Tigers | 74-85 | +71 | 1506 | 75.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Royals | 68-91 | -112 | 1469 | 69.5 | <1% | <1% |
| Twins | 75-84 | -64 | 1470 | 76.5 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 56%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 79-80 | -51 | 1494 | 80.7 | 56% | 56% |
| Rangers | 79-80 | -40 | 1490 | 80.5 | 44% | 44% |
| Athletics | 63-96 | -219 | 1429 | 64.3 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 61-98 | -91 | 1443 | 62.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Mariners | 74-85 | -64 | 1481 | 75.8 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 93-67 | +111 | 1530 | 94.6 | 100% | 100% |
| Marlins | 78-81 | +3 | 1495 | 79.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Mets | 73-86 | -35 | 1498 | 74.5 | <1% | <1% |
| Phillies | 87-72 | +24 | 1531 | 88.6 | <1% | 96% |
| Nationals | 75-84 | +9 | 1478 | 76.5 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 100-59 | +207 | 1578 | 102.0 | 100% | 100% |
| Cubs | 88-71 | +146 | 1544 | 89.4 | <1% | 100% |
| Reds | 74-85 | -159 | 1466 | 75.3 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 81-78 | +28 | 1503 | 82.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Cardinals | 77-82 | -22 | 1486 | 78.0 | <1% | <1% |
NL West — Dodgers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 97-62 | +194 | 1562 | 98.8 | 100% | 100% |
| Diamondbacks | 85-74 | +10 | 1512 | 86.3 | <1% | 4% |
| Rockies | 57-102 | -188 | 1403 | 58.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Padres | 89-70 | +40 | 1537 | 90.7 | <1% | 100% |
| Giants | 66-94 | -79 | 1470 | 67.2 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (100%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (99%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb