MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-09-26
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 97-63 | +79 | 1537 | 98.0 | 100% | 100% |
| Orioles | 79-82 | -21 | 1499 | 79.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Red Sox | 87-74 | +82 | 1537 | 87.5 | <1% | 100% |
| Yankees | 93-68 | +138 | 1550 | 93.6 | <1% | 100% |
| Blue Jays | 78-82 | -46 | 1501 | 79.2 | <1% | <1% |
AL Central — Guardians 73%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Guardians | 84-76 | +6 | 1509 | 85.0 | 73% | 100% |
| White Sox | 83-77 | +57 | 1502 | 84.4 | 27% | 100% |
| Tigers | 75-85 | +72 | 1507 | 76.1 | <1% | <1% |
| Royals | 68-92 | -115 | 1467 | 69.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Twins | 76-84 | -56 | 1474 | 77.0 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 55%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 79-81 | -52 | 1493 | 80.1 | 55% | 55% |
| Rangers | 79-81 | -48 | 1486 | 80.0 | 45% | 45% |
| Athletics | 64-96 | -218 | 1431 | 64.9 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 62-98 | -89 | 1445 | 62.8 | <1% | <1% |
| Mariners | 74-86 | -66 | 1479 | 75.2 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 93-68 | +108 | 1528 | 94.0 | 100% | 100% |
| Marlins | 79-81 | +6 | 1497 | 80.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Mets | 73-87 | -36 | 1497 | 74.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Phillies | 87-73 | +22 | 1530 | 88.0 | <1% | 85% |
| Nationals | 76-84 | +10 | 1479 | 77.0 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 101-59 | +211 | 1580 | 102.3 | 100% | 100% |
| Cubs | 88-73 | +143 | 1541 | 88.5 | <1% | 97% |
| Reds | 74-86 | -160 | 1465 | 74.8 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 81-79 | +27 | 1502 | 81.9 | <1% | <1% |
| Cardinals | 77-83 | -26 | 1484 | 77.7 | <1% | <1% |
NL West — Dodgers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 98-62 | +196 | 1564 | 99.2 | 100% | 100% |
| Diamondbacks | 86-74 | +17 | 1515 | 86.9 | <1% | 18% |
| Rockies | 57-103 | -193 | 1401 | 57.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Padres | 89-71 | +33 | 1533 | 90.1 | <1% | 100% |
| Giants | 66-95 | -81 | 1468 | 66.8 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (100%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (100%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb