MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-09-27
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 98-63 | +90 | 1541 | 98.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Orioles | 79-82 | -21 | 1499 | 79.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Red Sox | 87-74 | +82 | 1537 | 87.5 | <1% | 100% |
| Yankees | 93-68 | +138 | 1550 | 93.6 | <1% | 100% |
| Blue Jays | 78-83 | -50 | 1498 | 78.6 | <1% | <1% |
AL Central — Guardians 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Guardians | 85-76 | +12 | 1511 | 85.5 | 100% | 100% |
| White Sox | 83-78 | +54 | 1499 | 83.7 | <1% | 100% |
| Tigers | 76-85 | +73 | 1508 | 76.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Royals | 68-93 | -121 | 1464 | 68.5 | <1% | <1% |
| Twins | 76-85 | -60 | 1471 | 76.5 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 52%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 80-81 | -41 | 1496 | 80.6 | 52% | 52% |
| Rangers | 80-81 | -44 | 1489 | 80.5 | 48% | 48% |
| Athletics | 64-97 | -229 | 1427 | 64.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 62-99 | -93 | 1443 | 62.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Mariners | 75-86 | -62 | 1481 | 75.6 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 94-68 | +113 | 1530 | 94.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Marlins | 79-82 | +1 | 1494 | 79.5 | <1% | <1% |
| Mets | 74-87 | -30 | 1500 | 74.5 | <1% | <1% |
| Phillies | 87-74 | +11 | 1526 | 87.5 | <1% | 90% |
| Nationals | 76-85 | +4 | 1476 | 76.5 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 102-59 | +212 | 1580 | 102.7 | 100% | 100% |
| Cubs | 88-73 | +143 | 1541 | 88.5 | <1% | 100% |
| Reds | 75-86 | -156 | 1468 | 75.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 81-80 | +26 | 1501 | 81.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Cardinals | 77-84 | -27 | 1483 | 77.3 | <1% | <1% |
NL West — Dodgers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 99-62 | +197 | 1565 | 99.6 | 100% | 100% |
| Diamondbacks | 86-75 | +14 | 1514 | 86.4 | <1% | 10% |
| Rockies | 58-103 | -190 | 1404 | 58.3 | <1% | <1% |
| Padres | 90-71 | +36 | 1535 | 90.6 | <1% | 100% |
| Giants | 66-96 | -82 | 1468 | 66.4 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (100%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (100%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb