NFL Elo Update
Run date 2026-09-11 · Week 1 · the power ratings, this week's games, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts.
🏆 Elo power ratings
| # | Team | Division | W-L | Pt diff | Elo | Δ pre |
|---|
| 1 | SEA Seattle Seahawks | NFC West | 1-0 | +3 | 1661 | +9 |
| 2 | DEN Denver Broncos | AFC West | 0-0 | +0 | 1594 | +0 |
| 3 | BUF Buffalo Bills | AFC East | 0-0 | +0 | 1593 | +0 |
| 4 | HOU Houston Texans | AFC South | 0-0 | +0 | 1591 | +0 |
| 5 | SF San Francisco 49ers | NFC West | 1-0 | +20 | 1585 | +34 |
| 6 | NE New England Patriots | AFC East | 0-1 | -3 | 1575 | -9 |
| 7 | LA Los Angeles Rams | NFC West | 0-1 | -20 | 1562 | -34 |
| 8 | JAX Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC South | 0-0 | +0 | 1560 | +0 |
| 9 | PHI Philadelphia Eagles | NFC East | 0-0 | +0 | 1553 | +0 |
| 10 | DET Detroit Lions | NFC North | 0-0 | +0 | 1545 | +0 |
| 11 | MIN Minnesota Vikings | NFC North | 0-0 | +0 | 1542 | +0 |
| 12 | BAL Baltimore Ravens | AFC North | 0-0 | +0 | 1535 | +0 |
| 13 | CHI Chicago Bears | NFC North | 0-0 | +0 | 1525 | +0 |
| 14 | LAC Los Angeles Chargers | AFC West | 0-0 | +0 | 1523 | +0 |
| 15 | GB Green Bay Packers | NFC North | 0-0 | +0 | 1523 | +0 |
| 16 | PIT Pittsburgh Steelers | AFC North | 0-0 | +0 | 1508 | +0 |
| 17 | KC Kansas City Chiefs | AFC West | 0-0 | +0 | 1491 | +0 |
| 18 | TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC South | 0-0 | +0 | 1481 | +0 |
| 19 | CIN Cincinnati Bengals | AFC North | 0-0 | +0 | 1476 | +0 |
| 20 | ATL Atlanta Falcons | NFC South | 0-0 | +0 | 1474 | +0 |
| 21 | IND Indianapolis Colts | AFC South | 0-0 | +0 | 1471 | +0 |
| 22 | WAS Washington Commanders | NFC East | 0-0 | +0 | 1459 | +0 |
| 23 | DAL Dallas Cowboys | NFC East | 0-0 | +0 | 1459 | +0 |
| 24 | MIA Miami Dolphins | AFC East | 0-0 | +0 | 1458 | +0 |
| 25 | NO New Orleans Saints | NFC South | 0-0 | +0 | 1444 | +0 |
| 26 | CAR Carolina Panthers | NFC South | 0-0 | +0 | 1438 | +0 |
| 27 | NYG New York Giants | NFC East | 0-0 | +0 | 1430 | +0 |
| 28 | CLE Cleveland Browns | AFC North | 0-0 | +0 | 1429 | +0 |
| 29 | ARI Arizona Cardinals | NFC West | 0-0 | +0 | 1403 | +0 |
| 30 | NYJ New York Jets | AFC East | 0-0 | +0 | 1375 | +0 |
| 31 | TEN Tennessee Titans | AFC South | 0-0 | +0 | 1371 | +0 |
| 32 | LV Las Vegas Raiders | AFC West | 0-0 | +0 | 1367 | +0 |
Divisions by average Elo
| # | Division | Avg | Preseason | In top 10 | Best | Worst |
|---|
| 1 | NFC West | 1553 | 1550 | 3 | SEA (1661) | ARI (1403) |
| 2 | NFC North | 1534 | 1534 | 1 | DET (1545) | GB (1523) |
| 3 | AFC East | 1500 | 1502 | 2 | BUF (1593) | NYJ (1375) |
| 4 | AFC South | 1498 | 1498 | 2 | HOU (1591) | TEN (1371) |
| 5 | AFC West | 1494 | 1494 | 1 | DEN (1594) | LV (1367) |
| 6 | AFC North | 1487 | 1487 | 0 | BAL (1535) | CLE (1429) |
| 7 | NFC East | 1475 | 1475 | 1 | PHI (1553) | NYG (1430) |
| 8 | NFC South | 1459 | 1459 | 0 | TB (1481) | CAR (1438) |
📅 This week's games
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 13 games
| ET | Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Elo line (home) | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| 13:00 | CHI @ CAR | CHI | 56% | +1.8 | 23.8–21.9 | 45.7 |
| 13:00 | TB @ CIN | CIN | 56% | -1.5 | 25.7–24.1 | 49.8 |
| 13:00 | NO @ DET | DET | 70% | -5.8 | 26.2–20.4 | 46.6 |
| 13:00 | BUF @ HOU | HOU | 57% | -1.7 | 24.1–22.4 | 46.5 |
| 13:00 | BAL @ IND | BAL | 52% | +0.9 | 25.6–24.6 | 50.2 |
| 13:00 | CLE @ JAX | JAX | 74% | -7.1 | 25.1–18.0 | 43.1 |
| 13:00 | ATL @ PIT | PIT | 62% | -3.1 | 23.9–20.7 | 44.6 |
| 13:00 | NYJ @ TEN | TEN | 56% | -1.5 | 23.3–21.7 | 45.0 |
| 16:25 | ARI @ LAC | LAC | 72% | -6.6 | 25.5–18.9 | 44.4 |
| 16:25 | MIA @ LV | MIA | 56% | +2.0 | 21.6–19.6 | 41.2 |
| 16:25 | GB @ MIN | MIN | 60% | -2.5 | 22.0–19.5 | 41.5 |
| 16:25 | WAS @ PHI | PHI | 69% | -5.6 | 25.4–19.9 | 45.3 |
| 20:20 | DAL @ NYG | NYG | 53% | -0.5 | 26.2–25.7 | 51.8 |
Monday 2026-09-14 · 1 games
| ET | Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Elo line (home) | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| 20:15 | DEN @ KC | DEN | 58% | +2.5 | 21.2–18.7 | 39.9 |
Win probability straight from Elo (home edge applied except at neutral sites, marked N; a side off its bye gets the rest edge). The Elo line is the model's own spread from the home side — it has never seen a market number. Expected score is that margin carved out of a matchup-specific total (each team's recent points for/against, shrunk to the league mean); read it as an average, not a literal final.
📈 Model performance
Rolling tracker
| Window | Correct | Accuracy | Log loss | ΔLL vs always-home |
|---|
| Last 7 days | 1/2 | 50.0% | 0.6232 | -0.0222 ± 0.1615 |
| Last 30 days | 1/2 | 50.0% | 0.6232 | -0.0222 ± 0.1615 |
| Season to date | 1/2 | 50.0% | 0.6232 | -0.0222 ± 0.1615 |
ΔLL is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast on the same games (p = 0.55, coin flip at neutral sites), ± one standard error; negative = beating the baseline. Picks lock the first morning a game appears on a slate.
Past week: 1/2 picks correct
| Date | Game | Pick | Elo line | Final (home first) | Log loss |
|---|
| ✅ | 2026-09-09 | NE @ SEA | SEA (66%) | -4.6 | 13–10 | 0.41 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-10 | SF vs. LA (N) | LA (56%) | -1.8 | 7–27 | 0.83 |
🔮 Season forecasts
Super Bowl odds — all 32
| # | Team | Division | W-L | Proj W-L | Division | Playoffs | #1 seed | Conf. title | Super Bowl |
|---|
| 1 | SEA | NFC West | 1-0 | 12.3-4.7 | 57% | 86% | 31% | 26% | 15% |
| 2 | DEN | AFC West | 0-0 | 10.5-6.5 | 53% | 73% | 15% | 15% | 8% |
| 3 | HOU | AFC South | 0-0 | 10.8-6.2 | 49% | 74% | 17% | 15% | 7% |
| 4 | BUF | AFC East | 0-0 | 10.4-6.6 | 48% | 70% | 14% | 13% | 7% |
| 5 | SF | NFC West | 1-0 | 10.7-6.3 | 29% | 70% | 13% | 12% | 7% |
| 6 | NE | AFC East | 0-1 | 9.6-7.4 | 36% | 62% | 8% | 11% | 5% |
| 7 | PHI | NFC East | 0-0 | 9.9-7.1 | 50% | 64% | 9% | 9% | 5% |
| 8 | JAX | AFC South | 0-0 | 9.8-7.2 | 33% | 62% | 10% | 10% | 5% |
| 9 | BAL | AFC North | 0-0 | 9.7-7.3 | 39% | 59% | 9% | 8% | 4% |
| 10 | LA | NFC West | 0-1 | 9.1-7.9 | 12% | 47% | 5% | 7% | 4% |
| 11 | DET | NFC North | 0-0 | 9.8-7.2 | 30% | 58% | 8% | 8% | 4% |
| 12 | MIN | NFC North | 0-0 | 9.6-7.4 | 28% | 54% | 8% | 8% | 4% |
| 13 | LAC | AFC West | 0-0 | 8.5-8.5 | 24% | 45% | 4% | 6% | 3% |
| 14 | CHI | NFC North | 0-0 | 8.8-8.2 | 21% | 44% | 5% | 5% | 3% |
| 15 | PIT | AFC North | 0-0 | 8.7-8.3 | 26% | 46% | 5% | 5% | 3% |
| 16 | GB | NFC North | 0-0 | 8.9-8.1 | 21% | 45% | 5% | 5% | 3% |
| 17 | KC | AFC West | 0-0 | 8.1-8.9 | 19% | 40% | 3% | 4% | 2% |
| 18 | TB | NFC South | 0-0 | 8.4-8.6 | 31% | 42% | 4% | 4% | 2% |
| 19 | IND | AFC South | 0-0 | 8.0-9.0 | 14% | 36% | 3% | 4% | 2% |
| 20 | ATL | NFC South | 0-0 | 8.1-8.9 | 29% | 40% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| 21 | CIN | AFC North | 0-0 | 8.3-8.7 | 22% | 41% | 4% | 4% | 1% |
| 22 | MIA | AFC East | 0-0 | 7.2-9.8 | 12% | 27% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 23 | NO | NFC South | 0-0 | 7.7-9.3 | 24% | 33% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| 24 | WAS | NFC East | 0-0 | 7.5-9.5 | 18% | 30% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| 25 | CAR | NFC South | 0-0 | 7.0-10.0 | 17% | 25% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 26 | DAL | NFC East | 0-0 | 7.5-9.5 | 18% | 30% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 27 | CLE | AFC North | 0-0 | 7.4-9.6 | 14% | 30% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 28 | NYG | NFC East | 0-0 | 7.0-10.0 | 14% | 23% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 29 | ARI | NFC West | 0-0 | 6.0-11.0 | 2% | 12% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 30 | TEN | AFC South | 0-0 | 5.8-11.2 | 4% | 13% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| 31 | NYJ | AFC East | 0-0 | 5.6-11.4 | 4% | 12% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 32 | LV | AFC West | 0-0 | 5.4-11.6 | 4% | 11% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
Division races
| Division | Title odds |
|---|
| AFC East | BUF 48%, NE 36%, MIA 12%, NYJ 4% |
| AFC North | BAL 39%, PIT 26%, CIN 22%, CLE 14% |
| AFC South | HOU 49%, JAX 33%, IND 14%, TEN 4% |
| AFC West | DEN 53%, LAC 24%, KC 19%, LV 4% |
| NFC East | PHI 50%, DAL 18%, WAS 18%, NYG 14% |
| NFC North | DET 30%, MIN 28%, CHI 21%, GB 21% |
| NFC South | TB 31%, ATL 29%, NO 24%, CAR 17% |
| NFC West | SEA 57%, SF 29%, LA 12%, ARI 2% |
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (10,000 replays of the 270 remaining regular-season games with live in-sim Elo, then the full seven-team bracket: Wild Card at the higher seed, the #1 seed off its bye, Super Bowl at a neutral site). Ties break on division / conference record, then at random — the real tiebreaker ladder is not modeled.
Betting-blind NFL Elo (margin-weighted updates, bye-week rest edge, off-season regression) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/nfl