NFL Elo Update
Run date 2026-09-26 · Week 3 · the power ratings, this week's games, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts.
🏆 Elo power ratings
| # | Team | Division | W-L | Pt diff | Elo | Δ pre |
|---|
| 1 | SEA Seattle Seahawks | NFC West | 2-0 | +27 | 1676 | +24 |
| 2 | BUF Buffalo Bills | AFC East | 2-0 | +15 | 1628 | +36 |
| 3 | SF San Francisco 49ers | NFC West | 2-0 | +42 | 1597 | +47 |
| 4 | NE New England Patriots | AFC East | 1-1 | +14 | 1593 | +9 |
| 5 | MIN Minnesota Vikings | NFC North | 2-0 | +23 | 1587 | +44 |
| 6 | LA Los Angeles Rams | NFC West | 1-1 | +2 | 1577 | -19 |
| 7 | DEN Denver Broncos | AFC West | 1-1 | -14 | 1577 | -17 |
| 8 | PHI Philadelphia Eagles | NFC East | 2-0 | +6 | 1568 | +14 |
| 9 | JAX Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC South | 1-1 | +17 | 1557 | -3 |
| 10 | KC Kansas City Chiefs | AFC West | 2-0 | +24 | 1535 | +44 |
| 11 | HOU Houston Texans | AFC South | 0-2 | -19 | 1534 | -57 |
| 12 | DET Detroit Lions | NFC North | 1-1 | -9 | 1533 | -12 |
| 13 | BAL Baltimore Ravens | AFC North | 1-1 | +11 | 1533 | -2 |
| 14 | CHI Chicago Bears | NFC North | 1-1 | +16 | 1531 | +6 |
| 15 | CIN Cincinnati Bengals | AFC North | 2-0 | +20 | 1530 | +53 |
| 16 | PIT Pittsburgh Steelers | AFC North | 1-1 | -10 | 1505 | -3 |
| 17 | NO New Orleans Saints | NFC South | 1-1 | +6 | 1470 | +26 |
| 18 | GB Green Bay Packers | NFC North | 1-2 | -35 | 1469 | -54 |
| 19 | DAL Dallas Cowboys | NFC East | 1-1 | +9 | 1464 | +5 |
| 20 | ATL Atlanta Falcons | NFC South | 1-2 | -17 | 1458 | -16 |
| 21 | CAR Carolina Panthers | NFC South | 1-1 | +9 | 1455 | +16 |
| 22 | LAC Los Angeles Chargers | AFC West | 0-2 | -24 | 1450 | -72 |
| 23 | TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC South | 0-2 | -10 | 1444 | -37 |
| 24 | NYG New York Giants | NFC East | 1-1 | -14 | 1435 | +5 |
| 25 | IND Indianapolis Colts | AFC South | 0-2 | -21 | 1435 | -36 |
| 26 | CLE Cleveland Browns | AFC North | 1-1 | -20 | 1434 | +5 |
| 27 | LV Las Vegas Raiders | AFC West | 2-0 | +26 | 1432 | +66 |
| 28 | WAS Washington Commanders | NFC East | 0-2 | -19 | 1427 | -32 |
| 29 | ARI Arizona Cardinals | NFC West | 1-1 | -12 | 1425 | +22 |
| 30 | MIA Miami Dolphins | AFC East | 0-2 | -36 | 1416 | -43 |
| 31 | NYJ New York Jets | AFC East | 1-1 | +10 | 1393 | +18 |
| 32 | TEN Tennessee Titans | AFC South | 0-2 | -17 | 1333 | -38 |
Divisions by average Elo
| # | Division | Avg | Preseason | In top 10 | Best | Worst |
|---|
| 1 | NFC West | 1569 | 1550 | 3 | SEA (1676) | ARI (1425) |
| 2 | NFC North | 1530 | 1534 | 1 | MIN (1587) | GB (1469) |
| 3 | AFC East | 1508 | 1502 | 2 | BUF (1628) | NYJ (1393) |
| 4 | AFC North | 1500 | 1487 | 0 | BAL (1533) | CLE (1434) |
| 5 | AFC West | 1499 | 1494 | 2 | DEN (1577) | LV (1432) |
| 6 | NFC East | 1474 | 1475 | 1 | PHI (1568) | WAS (1427) |
| 7 | AFC South | 1465 | 1498 | 1 | JAX (1557) | TEN (1333) |
| 8 | NFC South | 1457 | 1459 | 0 | NO (1470) | TB (1444) |
📅 This week's games
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 14 games
| ET | Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Elo line (home) | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| 13:00 | LAC @ BUF | BUF | 86% | -9.8 | 28.1–18.3 | 46.3 |
| 13:00 | CAR @ CLE | CAR | 61% | -0.8 | 21.0–21.8 | 42.8 |
| 13:00 | NYJ @ DET | DET | 80% | -8.2 | 29.4–21.1 | 50.5 |
| 13:00 | HOU @ IND | HOU | 52% | +2.4 | 25.6–23.2 | 48.7 |
| 13:00 | NE @ JAX | JAX | 60% | -0.2 | 21.0–20.8 | 41.8 |
| 13:00 | KC @ MIA | KC | 71% | +3.2 | 23.0–19.8 | 42.8 |
| 13:00 | TEN @ NYG | NYG | 63% | -5.9 | 25.4–19.5 | 44.8 |
| 13:00 | CIN @ PIT | CIN | 55% | -0.7 | 22.6–23.3 | 45.8 |
| 13:00 | SEA @ WAS | SEA | 68% | +8.5 | 27.5–19.0 | 46.5 |
| 16:05 | ARI @ SF | SF | 79% | -8.7 | 28.7–20.0 | 48.7 |
| 16:05 | MIN @ TB | MIN | 55% | +4.2 | 23.0–18.8 | 41.8 |
| 16:25 | BAL vs. DAL (N) | BAL | 65% | +3.1 | 27.9–24.8 | 52.7 |
| 16:25 | LV @ NO | NO | 72% | -3.2 | 21.7–18.4 | 40.1 |
| 20:20 | LA @ DEN | DEN | 50% | -1.7 | 23.2–21.5 | 44.7 |
Monday 2026-09-28 · 1 games
| ET | Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Elo line (home) | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| 20:15 | PHI @ CHI | CHI | 59% | -0.2 | 22.6–22.4 | 45.0 |
Win probability straight from Elo (home edge applied except at neutral sites, marked N; a side off its bye gets the rest edge). The Elo line is the model's own spread from the home side — it has never seen a market number. Expected score is that margin carved out of a matchup-specific total (each team's recent points for/against, shrunk to the league mean); read it as an average, not a literal final.
📈 Model performance
Rolling tracker
| Window | Correct | Accuracy | Log loss | ΔLL vs always-home |
|---|
| Last 7 days | 9/16 | 56.2% | 0.7039 | -0.0193 ± 0.0798 |
| Last 30 days | 20/33 | 60.6% | 0.6682 | -0.0237 ± 0.0462 |
| Season to date | 20/33 | 60.6% | 0.6682 | -0.0237 ± 0.0462 |
ΔLL is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast on the same games (p = 0.55, coin flip at neutral sites), ± one standard error; negative = beating the baseline. Picks lock the first morning a game appears on a slate.
Past week: 9/16 picks correct
| Date | Game | Pick | Elo line | Final (home first) | Log loss |
|---|
| ✅ | 2026-09-20 | SEA @ ARI | SEA (75%) | +8.2 | 7–31 | 0.28 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-20 | CAR @ ATL | ATL (63%) | -3.7 | 3–34 | 1.00 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-20 | NO @ BAL | BAL (73%) | -6.8 | 17–24 | 1.30 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-20 | MIN @ CHI | CHI (55%) | -1.2 | 3–9 | 0.80 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-20 | WAS @ DAL | DAL (55%) | -1.1 | 37–20 | 0.60 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-20 | JAX @ DEN | DEN (54%) | -1.0 | 20–13 | 0.61 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-20 | CIN @ HOU | HOU (67%) | -4.9 | 6–20 | 1.12 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-20 | IND @ KC | KC (68%) | -5.1 | 33–30 | 0.38 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-20 | LV @ LAC | LAC (69%) | -5.3 | 14–26 | 1.16 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-20 | PIT @ NE | NE (67%) | -4.6 | 20–3 | 0.41 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-20 | GB @ NYJ | GB (57%) | +2.2 | 17–20 | 0.57 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-20 | MIA @ SF | SF (78%) | -9.0 | 35–13 | 0.24 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-20 | CLE @ TB | TB (64%) | -3.8 | 19–23 | 1.02 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-20 | PHI @ TEN | PHI (73%) | +7.2 | 20–24 | 0.32 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-21 | NYG @ LA | LA (74%) | -7.1 | 28–6 | 0.30 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-24 | ATL @ GB | GB (68%) | -5.7 | 14–35 | 1.14 |
🔮 Season forecasts
Super Bowl odds — all 32
| # | Team | Division | W-L | Proj W-L | Division | Playoffs | #1 seed | Conf. title | Super Bowl |
|---|
| 1 | SEA | NFC West | 2-0 | 12.6-4.4 | 58% | 90% | 34% | 28% | 17% |
| 2 | BUF | AFC East | 2-0 | 12.0-5.0 | 62% | 87% | 30% | 23% | 12% |
| 3 | MIN | NFC North | 2-0 | 11.5-5.5 | 56% | 81% | 19% | 14% | 8% |
| 4 | SF | NFC West | 2-0 | 11.1-5.9 | 29% | 74% | 15% | 14% | 8% |
| 5 | NE | AFC East | 1-1 | 10.2-6.8 | 33% | 71% | 13% | 13% | 7% |
| 6 | PHI | NFC East | 2-0 | 10.8-6.2 | 64% | 75% | 11% | 11% | 6% |
| 7 | DEN | AFC West | 1-1 | 9.8-7.2 | 39% | 64% | 8% | 11% | 5% |
| 8 | JAX | AFC South | 1-1 | 9.8-7.2 | 50% | 65% | 8% | 10% | 4% |
| 9 | CIN | AFC North | 2-0 | 10.7-6.3 | 43% | 72% | 14% | 9% | 4% |
| 10 | KC | AFC West | 2-0 | 9.8-7.2 | 40% | 64% | 9% | 8% | 4% |
| 11 | LA | NFC West | 1-1 | 9.5-7.5 | 12% | 54% | 5% | 7% | 4% |
| 12 | BAL | AFC North | 1-1 | 9.4-7.6 | 27% | 58% | 7% | 7% | 3% |
| 13 | DET | NFC North | 1-1 | 9.7-7.3 | 24% | 56% | 5% | 6% | 3% |
| 14 | HOU | AFC South | 0-2 | 8.8-8.2 | 36% | 51% | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| 15 | CHI | NFC North | 1-1 | 8.8-8.2 | 15% | 43% | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| 16 | PIT | AFC North | 1-1 | 8.7-8.3 | 19% | 44% | 4% | 5% | 2% |
| 17 | NO | NFC South | 1-1 | 8.6-8.4 | 38% | 45% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| 18 | CAR | NFC South | 1-1 | 7.5-9.5 | 26% | 32% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 19 | DAL | NFC East | 1-1 | 7.8-9.2 | 16% | 29% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 20 | CLE | AFC North | 1-1 | 7.8-9.2 | 11% | 31% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 21 | ATL | NFC South | 1-2 | 7.3-9.7 | 19% | 28% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 22 | LV | AFC West | 2-0 | 7.7-9.3 | 16% | 32% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 23 | NYG | NFC East | 1-1 | 7.5-9.5 | 15% | 25% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 24 | TB | NFC South | 0-2 | 6.6-10.4 | 17% | 24% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 25 | GB | NFC North | 1-2 | 7.2-9.8 | 6% | 20% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| 26 | IND | AFC South | 0-2 | 6.6-10.4 | 11% | 20% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| 27 | LAC | AFC West | 0-2 | 5.5-11.5 | 4% | 11% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 28 | WAS | NFC East | 0-2 | 6.2-10.8 | 5% | 12% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 29 | MIA | AFC East | 0-2 | 5.4-11.6 | 2% | 10% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 30 | NYJ | AFC East | 1-1 | 6.0-11.0 | 3% | 13% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 31 | ARI | NFC West | 1-1 | 6.7-10.3 | 1% | 13% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 32 | TEN | AFC South | 0-2 | 4.4-12.6 | 3% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Division races
| Division | Title odds |
|---|
| AFC East | BUF 62%, NE 33%, NYJ 3%, MIA 2% |
| AFC North | CIN 43%, BAL 27%, PIT 19%, CLE 11% |
| AFC South | JAX 50%, HOU 36%, IND 11%, TEN 3% |
| AFC West | KC 40%, DEN 39%, LV 16%, LAC 4% |
| NFC East | PHI 64%, DAL 16%, NYG 15%, WAS 5% |
| NFC North | MIN 56%, DET 24%, CHI 15%, GB 6% |
| NFC South | NO 38%, CAR 26%, ATL 19%, TB 17% |
| NFC West | SEA 58%, SF 29%, LA 12%, ARI 1% |
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (10,000 replays of the 239 remaining regular-season games with live in-sim Elo, then the full seven-team bracket: Wild Card at the higher seed, the #1 seed off its bye, Super Bowl at a neutral site). Ties break on division / conference record, then at random — the real tiebreaker ladder is not modeled.
Betting-blind NFL Elo (margin-weighted updates, bye-week rest edge, off-season regression) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/nfl