NFL Elo Update
Run date 2026-10-02 · Week 4 · the power ratings, this week's games, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts.
🏆 Elo power ratings
| # | Team | Division | W-L | Pt diff | Elo | Δ pre |
|---|
| 1 | SEA Seattle Seahawks | NFC West | 2-1 | +25 | 1659 | +7 |
| 2 | BUF Buffalo Bills | AFC East | 3-0 | +23 | 1636 | +44 |
| 3 | SF San Francisco 49ers | NFC West | 3-0 | +48 | 1605 | +54 |
| 4 | MIN Minnesota Vikings | NFC North | 3-0 | +30 | 1601 | +59 |
| 5 | DEN Denver Broncos | AFC West | 2-1 | -10 | 1590 | -3 |
| 6 | JAX Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC South | 2-1 | +46 | 1590 | +30 |
| 7 | LA Los Angeles Rams | NFC West | 1-2 | -2 | 1563 | -33 |
| 8 | NE New England Patriots | AFC East | 1-2 | -15 | 1561 | -23 |
| 9 | CHI Chicago Bears | NFC North | 2-1 | +36 | 1560 | +35 |
| 10 | KC Kansas City Chiefs | AFC West | 3-0 | +38 | 1556 | +65 |
| 11 | BAL Baltimore Ravens | AFC North | 2-1 | +14 | 1544 | +8 |
| 12 | DET Detroit Lions | NFC North | 2-1 | -2 | 1542 | -3 |
| 13 | PHI Philadelphia Eagles | NFC East | 2-1 | -14 | 1538 | -15 |
| 14 | HOU Houston Texans | AFC South | 0-3 | -21 | 1522 | -69 |
| 15 | CIN Cincinnati Bengals | AFC North | 2-1 | +17 | 1517 | +40 |
| 16 | PIT Pittsburgh Steelers | AFC North | 2-2 | -10 | 1503 | -5 |
| 17 | GB Green Bay Packers | NFC North | 1-2 | -35 | 1469 | -54 |
| 18 | CLE Cleveland Browns | AFC North | 3-1 | -14 | 1461 | +32 |
| 19 | LV Las Vegas Raiders | AFC West | 3-0 | +34 | 1460 | +93 |
| 20 | ATL Atlanta Falcons | NFC South | 1-2 | -17 | 1458 | -16 |
| 21 | DAL Dallas Cowboys | NFC East | 1-2 | +6 | 1453 | -6 |
| 22 | IND Indianapolis Colts | AFC South | 1-2 | -19 | 1447 | -24 |
| 23 | NYG New York Giants | NFC East | 2-1 | -9 | 1445 | +15 |
| 24 | WAS Washington Commanders | NFC East | 1-2 | -17 | 1444 | -15 |
| 25 | NO New Orleans Saints | NFC South | 1-2 | -2 | 1443 | -1 |
| 26 | LAC Los Angeles Chargers | AFC West | 0-3 | -32 | 1443 | -80 |
| 27 | CAR Carolina Panthers | NFC South | 1-2 | +6 | 1442 | +4 |
| 28 | TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC South | 0-3 | -17 | 1429 | -52 |
| 29 | ARI Arizona Cardinals | NFC West | 1-2 | -18 | 1418 | +15 |
| 30 | MIA Miami Dolphins | AFC East | 0-3 | -50 | 1395 | -64 |
| 31 | NYJ New York Jets | AFC East | 1-2 | +3 | 1384 | +9 |
| 32 | TEN Tennessee Titans | AFC South | 0-3 | -22 | 1323 | -48 |
Divisions by average Elo
| # | Division | Avg | Preseason | In top 10 | Best | Worst |
|---|
| 1 | NFC West | 1561 | 1550 | 3 | SEA (1659) | ARI (1418) |
| 2 | NFC North | 1543 | 1534 | 2 | MIN (1601) | GB (1469) |
| 3 | AFC West | 1512 | 1494 | 2 | DEN (1590) | LAC (1443) |
| 4 | AFC North | 1506 | 1487 | 0 | BAL (1544) | CLE (1461) |
| 5 | AFC East | 1494 | 1502 | 2 | BUF (1636) | NYJ (1384) |
| 6 | AFC South | 1470 | 1498 | 1 | JAX (1590) | TEN (1323) |
| 7 | NFC East | 1470 | 1475 | 0 | PHI (1538) | WAS (1444) |
| 8 | NFC South | 1443 | 1459 | 0 | ATL (1458) | TB (1429) |
📅 This week's games
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 14 games
| ET | Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Elo line (home) | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| 09:30 | IND vs. WAS (N) | IND | 52% | +0.4 | 26.4–26.0 | 52.4 |
| 13:00 | TEN @ BAL | BAL | 87% | -10.7 | 28.5–17.8 | 46.3 |
| 13:00 | NE @ BUF | BUF | 68% | -4.8 | 25.1–20.3 | 45.5 |
| 13:00 | NYJ @ CHI | CHI | 85% | -8.9 | 27.7–18.7 | 46.4 |
| 13:00 | JAX @ CIN | JAX | 59% | +1.3 | 25.1–23.9 | 49.0 |
| 13:00 | DAL @ HOU | HOU | 52% | -4.5 | 27.0–22.5 | 49.5 |
| 13:00 | ARI @ NYG | NYG | 56% | -2.8 | 24.7–21.9 | 46.6 |
| 13:00 | LA @ PHI | LA | 64% | -0.7 | 22.4–23.1 | 45.5 |
| 13:00 | GB @ TB | GB | 53% | +0.7 | 23.4–22.7 | 46.1 |
| 16:05 | MIA @ MIN | MIN | 77% | -10.1 | 25.3–15.2 | 40.5 |
| 16:25 | KC @ LV | KC | 65% | +2.2 | 21.5–19.3 | 40.7 |
| 16:25 | LAC @ SEA | SEA | 84% | -10.5 | 26.0–15.5 | 41.4 |
| 16:25 | DEN @ SF | SF | 70% | -2.3 | 23.9–21.5 | 45.4 |
| 20:20 | DET @ CAR | DET | 52% | +2.3 | 27.2–24.8 | 52.0 |
Monday 2026-10-05 · 1 games
| ET | Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Elo line (home) | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| 20:15 | ATL @ NO | NO | 51% | -0.3 | 22.1–21.8 | 43.9 |
Win probability straight from Elo (home edge applied except at neutral sites, marked N; a side off its bye gets the rest edge). The Elo line is the model's own spread from the home side — it has never seen a market number. Expected score is that margin carved out of a matchup-specific total (each team's recent points for/against, shrunk to the league mean); read it as an average, not a literal final.
📈 Model performance
Rolling tracker
| Window | Correct | Accuracy | Log loss | ΔLL vs always-home |
|---|
| Last 7 days | 11/16 | 68.8% | 0.6088 | -0.0326 ± 0.0796 |
| Last 30 days | 31/49 | 63.3% | 0.6488 | -0.0266 ± 0.0401 |
| Season to date | 31/49 | 63.3% | 0.6488 | -0.0266 ± 0.0401 |
ΔLL is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast on the same games (p = 0.55, coin flip at neutral sites), ± one standard error; negative = beating the baseline. Picks lock the first morning a game appears on a slate.
Past week: 11/16 picks correct
| Date | Game | Pick | Elo line | Final (home first) | Log loss |
|---|
| ✅ | 2026-09-27 | LAC @ BUF | BUF (86%) | -9.8 | 24–16 | 0.16 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-27 | CAR @ CLE | CAR (61%) | -0.8 | 21–18 | 0.95 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-27 | BAL vs. DAL (N) | BAL (64%) | +3.1 | 31–34 | 0.45 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-27 | LA @ DEN | DEN (50%) | -1.7 | 30–26 | 0.69 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-27 | NYJ @ DET | DET (80%) | -8.3 | 31–24 | 0.23 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-27 | HOU @ IND | HOU (53%) | +2.4 | 19–17 | 0.75 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-27 | NE @ JAX | JAX (61%) | -0.2 | 35–6 | 0.49 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-27 | KC @ MIA | KC (71%) | +3.2 | 10–24 | 0.34 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-27 | LV @ NO | NO (72%) | -3.3 | 27–35 | 1.26 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-27 | TEN @ NYG | NYG (64%) | -5.9 | 12–7 | 0.45 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-27 | CIN @ PIT | CIN (55%) | -0.7 | 30–27 | 0.80 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-27 | ARI @ SF | SF (79%) | -8.7 | 36–30 | 0.23 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-27 | MIN @ TB | MIN (56%) | +4.2 | 16–23 | 0.59 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-27 | SEA @ WAS | SEA (68%) | +8.5 | 33–31 | 1.15 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-28 | PHI @ CHI | CHI (59%) | -0.2 | 27–7 | 0.53 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-01 | PIT @ CLE | CLE (51%) | +1.2 | 27–24 | 0.67 |
🔮 Season forecasts
Super Bowl odds — all 32
| # | Team | Division | W-L | Proj W-L | Division | Playoffs | #1 seed | Conf. title | Super Bowl |
|---|
| 1 | BUF | AFC East | 3-0 | 12.3-4.7 | 76% | 91% | 35% | 25% | 14% |
| 2 | SEA | NFC West | 2-1 | 11.6-5.4 | 47% | 82% | 19% | 22% | 13% |
| 3 | MIN | NFC North | 3-0 | 12.1-4.9 | 58% | 88% | 30% | 18% | 10% |
| 4 | SF | NFC West | 3-0 | 11.5-5.5 | 42% | 79% | 21% | 17% | 9% |
| 5 | JAX | AFC South | 2-1 | 10.9-6.1 | 68% | 80% | 12% | 14% | 7% |
| 6 | DEN | AFC West | 2-1 | 10.5-6.5 | 40% | 72% | 11% | 12% | 6% |
| 7 | KC | AFC West | 3-0 | 10.6-6.4 | 42% | 75% | 12% | 11% | 5% |
| 8 | BAL | AFC North | 2-1 | 10.0-7.0 | 35% | 63% | 8% | 8% | 4% |
| 9 | CHI | NFC North | 2-1 | 9.9-7.1 | 17% | 60% | 6% | 8% | 4% |
| 10 | PHI | NFC East | 2-1 | 9.8-7.2 | 53% | 63% | 6% | 7% | 4% |
| 11 | DET | NFC North | 2-1 | 10.0-7.0 | 21% | 62% | 9% | 8% | 4% |
| 12 | NE | AFC East | 1-2 | 9.1-7.9 | 20% | 53% | 5% | 7% | 3% |
| 13 | LA | NFC West | 1-2 | 8.9-8.1 | 10% | 46% | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| 14 | CIN | AFC North | 2-1 | 9.9-7.1 | 28% | 59% | 7% | 6% | 3% |
| 15 | PIT | AFC North | 2-2 | 8.7-8.3 | 15% | 39% | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| 16 | HOU | AFC South | 0-3 | 7.9-9.1 | 18% | 32% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| 17 | CLE | AFC North | 3-1 | 9.3-7.7 | 22% | 48% | 4% | 3% | 1% |
| 18 | LV | AFC West | 3-0 | 8.7-8.3 | 17% | 42% | 3% | 3% | 1% |
| 19 | NO | NFC South | 1-2 | 7.5-9.5 | 31% | 35% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 20 | NYG | NFC East | 2-1 | 7.9-9.1 | 21% | 31% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 21 | ATL | NFC South | 1-2 | 7.3-9.7 | 27% | 32% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 22 | GB | NFC North | 1-2 | 7.2-9.8 | 4% | 19% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 23 | DAL | NFC East | 1-2 | 7.3-9.7 | 14% | 24% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 24 | IND | AFC South | 1-2 | 7.3-9.7 | 13% | 24% | <1% | 2% | 1% |
| 25 | WAS | NFC East | 1-2 | 7.2-9.8 | 12% | 21% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| 26 | CAR | NFC South | 1-2 | 6.9-10.1 | 25% | 29% | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| 27 | TB | NFC South | 0-3 | 6.0-11.0 | 17% | 19% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 28 | ARI | NFC West | 1-2 | 6.3-10.7 | 1% | 10% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 29 | LAC | AFC West | 0-3 | 5.2-11.8 | 2% | 7% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 30 | MIA | AFC East | 0-3 | 4.7-12.3 | 1% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 31 | NYJ | AFC East | 1-2 | 5.5-11.5 | 2% | 9% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 32 | TEN | AFC South | 0-3 | 3.8-13.2 | 1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Division races
| Division | Title odds |
|---|
| AFC East | BUF 76%, NE 20%, NYJ 2%, MIA 1% |
| AFC North | BAL 35%, CIN 28%, CLE 22%, PIT 15% |
| AFC South | JAX 68%, HOU 18%, IND 13%, TEN 1% |
| AFC West | KC 42%, DEN 40%, LV 17%, LAC 2% |
| NFC East | PHI 53%, NYG 21%, DAL 14%, WAS 12% |
| NFC North | MIN 58%, DET 21%, CHI 17%, GB 4% |
| NFC South | NO 31%, ATL 27%, CAR 25%, TB 17% |
| NFC West | SEA 47%, SF 42%, LA 10%, ARI 1% |
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (10,000 replays of the 223 remaining regular-season games with live in-sim Elo, then the full seven-team bracket: Wild Card at the higher seed, the #1 seed off its bye, Super Bowl at a neutral site). Ties break on division / conference record, then at random — the real tiebreaker ladder is not modeled.
Betting-blind NFL Elo (margin-weighted updates, bye-week rest edge, off-season regression) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/nfl