NFL Elo Update
Run date 2026-10-05 · Week 4 · the power ratings, this week's games, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts.
🏆 Elo power ratings
| # | Team | Division | W-L | Pt diff | Elo | Δ pre |
|---|
| 1 | SEA Seattle Seahawks | NFC West | 3-1 | +32 | 1666 | +14 |
| 2 | SF San Francisco 49ers | NFC West | 4-0 | +58 | 1624 | +74 |
| 3 | BUF Buffalo Bills | AFC East | 3-1 | +20 | 1618 | +25 |
| 4 | MIN Minnesota Vikings | NFC North | 4-0 | +35 | 1607 | +65 |
| 5 | JAX Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC South | 3-1 | +51 | 1606 | +46 |
| 6 | LA Los Angeles Rams | NFC West | 2-2 | +2 | 1580 | -16 |
| 7 | NE New England Patriots | AFC East | 2-2 | -12 | 1579 | -5 |
| 8 | DEN Denver Broncos | AFC West | 2-2 | -20 | 1571 | -23 |
| 9 | CHI Chicago Bears | NFC North | 3-1 | +47 | 1570 | +45 |
| 10 | KC Kansas City Chiefs | AFC West | 4-0 | +41 | 1568 | +77 |
| 11 | BAL Baltimore Ravens | AFC North | 3-1 | +20 | 1550 | +14 |
| 12 | PHI Philadelphia Eagles | NFC East | 2-2 | -18 | 1521 | -32 |
| 13 | DET Detroit Lions | NFC North | 2-2 | -8 | 1519 | -25 |
| 14 | PIT Pittsburgh Steelers | AFC North | 2-2 | -10 | 1503 | -5 |
| 15 | CIN Cincinnati Bengals | AFC North | 2-2 | +12 | 1500 | +24 |
| 16 | HOU Houston Texans | AFC South | 0-4 | -25 | 1500 | -91 |
| 17 | GB Green Bay Packers | NFC North | 2-2 | -32 | 1482 | -41 |
| 18 | IND Indianapolis Colts | AFC South | 2-2 | -2 | 1476 | +5 |
| 19 | DAL Dallas Cowboys | NFC East | 2-2 | +10 | 1475 | +16 |
| 20 | CAR Carolina Panthers | NFC South | 2-2 | +12 | 1465 | +26 |
| 21 | NYG New York Giants | NFC East | 3-1 | +3 | 1465 | +35 |
| 22 | CLE Cleveland Browns | AFC North | 3-1 | -14 | 1461 | +32 |
| 23 | ATL Atlanta Falcons | NFC South | 1-2 | -17 | 1458 | -16 |
| 24 | LV Las Vegas Raiders | AFC West | 3-1 | +31 | 1448 | +81 |
| 25 | NO New Orleans Saints | NFC South | 1-2 | -2 | 1443 | -1 |
| 26 | LAC Los Angeles Chargers | AFC West | 0-4 | -39 | 1436 | -87 |
| 27 | TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC South | 0-4 | -20 | 1416 | -65 |
| 28 | WAS Washington Commanders | NFC East | 1-3 | -34 | 1415 | -44 |
| 29 | ARI Arizona Cardinals | NFC West | 1-3 | -30 | 1398 | -5 |
| 30 | MIA Miami Dolphins | AFC East | 0-4 | -55 | 1389 | -70 |
| 31 | NYJ New York Jets | AFC East | 1-3 | -8 | 1374 | -0 |
| 32 | TEN Tennessee Titans | AFC South | 0-4 | -28 | 1317 | -54 |
Divisions by average Elo
| # | Division | Avg | Preseason | In top 10 | Best | Worst |
|---|
| 1 | NFC West | 1567 | 1550 | 3 | SEA (1666) | ARI (1398) |
| 2 | NFC North | 1545 | 1534 | 2 | MIN (1607) | GB (1482) |
| 3 | AFC West | 1506 | 1494 | 2 | DEN (1571) | LAC (1436) |
| 4 | AFC North | 1504 | 1487 | 0 | BAL (1550) | CLE (1461) |
| 5 | AFC East | 1490 | 1502 | 2 | BUF (1618) | NYJ (1374) |
| 6 | AFC South | 1475 | 1498 | 1 | JAX (1606) | TEN (1317) |
| 7 | NFC East | 1469 | 1475 | 0 | PHI (1521) | WAS (1415) |
| 8 | NFC South | 1445 | 1459 | 0 | CAR (1465) | TB (1416) |
📅 This week's games
Monday 2026-10-05 · 1 games
| ET | Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Elo line (home) | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| 20:15 | ATL @ NO | NO | 51% | -0.3 | 22.1–21.8 | 43.9 |
Win probability straight from Elo (home edge applied except at neutral sites, marked N; a side off its bye gets the rest edge). The Elo line is the model's own spread from the home side — it has never seen a market number. Expected score is that margin carved out of a matchup-specific total (each team's recent points for/against, shrunk to the league mean); read it as an average, not a literal final.
📈 Model performance
Rolling tracker
| Window | Correct | Accuracy | Log loss | ΔLL vs always-home |
|---|
| Last 7 days | 13/16 | 81.2% | 0.5152 | -0.1639 ± 0.0576 |
| Last 30 days | 42/63 | 66.7% | 0.6165 | -0.0624 ± 0.0350 |
| Season to date | 42/63 | 66.7% | 0.6165 | -0.0624 ± 0.0350 |
ΔLL is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast on the same games (p = 0.55, coin flip at neutral sites), ± one standard error; negative = beating the baseline. Picks lock the first morning a game appears on a slate.
Past week: 13/16 picks correct
| Date | Game | Pick | Elo line | Final (home first) | Log loss |
|---|
| ✅ | 2026-09-28 | PHI @ CHI | CHI (59%) | -0.2 | 27–7 | 0.53 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-01 | PIT @ CLE | CLE (51%) | +1.2 | 27–24 | 0.67 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-04 | TEN @ BAL | BAL (87%) | -10.7 | 24–18 | 0.14 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-04 | NE @ BUF | BUF (68%) | -4.8 | 26–29 | 1.14 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-04 | DET @ CAR | DET (52%) | +2.4 | 32–26 | 0.74 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-04 | NYJ @ CHI | CHI (84%) | -8.9 | 23–12 | 0.17 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-04 | JAX @ CIN | JAX (58%) | +1.3 | 17–22 | 0.54 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-04 | DAL @ HOU | HOU (53%) | -4.5 | 30–34 | 0.75 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-04 | KC @ LV | KC (65%) | +2.2 | 27–30 | 0.43 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-04 | MIA @ MIN | MIN (77%) | -10.1 | 15–10 | 0.26 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-04 | ARI @ NYG | NYG (56%) | -2.8 | 36–24 | 0.58 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-04 | LA @ PHI | LA (64%) | -0.7 | 20–24 | 0.45 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-04 | LAC @ SEA | SEA (83%) | -10.5 | 30–23 | 0.19 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-04 | DEN @ SF | SF (70%) | -2.3 | 24–14 | 0.36 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-04 | GB @ TB | GB (53%) | +0.7 | 14–17 | 0.63 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-04 | IND vs. WAS (N) | IND (51%) | +0.4 | 13–30 | 0.67 |
🔮 Season forecasts
Super Bowl odds — all 32
| # | Team | Division | W-L | Proj W-L | Division | Playoffs | #1 seed | Conf. title | Super Bowl |
|---|
| 1 | SEA | NFC West | 3-1 | 11.8-5.2 | 42% | 82% | 19% | 22% | 13% |
| 2 | MIN | NFC North | 4-0 | 12.4-4.6 | 63% | 89% | 32% | 20% | 10% |
| 3 | SF | NFC West | 4-0 | 12.2-4.8 | 46% | 85% | 26% | 19% | 10% |
| 4 | BUF | AFC East | 3-1 | 11.3-5.7 | 57% | 84% | 18% | 19% | 9% |
| 5 | JAX | AFC South | 3-1 | 11.6-5.4 | 75% | 87% | 22% | 18% | 9% |
| 6 | KC | AFC West | 4-0 | 11.3-5.7 | 60% | 85% | 21% | 13% | 6% |
| 7 | NE | AFC East | 2-2 | 10.2-6.8 | 39% | 73% | 9% | 11% | 6% |
| 8 | DEN | AFC West | 2-2 | 9.8-7.2 | 29% | 63% | 7% | 9% | 5% |
| 9 | LA | NFC West | 2-2 | 9.8-7.2 | 11% | 58% | 4% | 8% | 4% |
| 10 | BAL | AFC North | 3-1 | 10.4-6.6 | 41% | 69% | 11% | 10% | 4% |
| 11 | CHI | NFC North | 3-1 | 10.4-6.6 | 20% | 65% | 7% | 9% | 4% |
| 12 | PHI | NFC East | 2-2 | 8.9-8.1 | 39% | 47% | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| 13 | DET | NFC North | 2-2 | 9.0-8.0 | 12% | 42% | 3% | 4% | 2% |
| 14 | CIN | AFC North | 2-2 | 9.0-8.0 | 19% | 46% | 3% | 4% | 2% |
| 15 | PIT | AFC North | 2-2 | 8.7-8.3 | 16% | 41% | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| 16 | CLE | AFC North | 3-1 | 9.3-7.7 | 23% | 49% | 4% | 4% | 1% |
| 17 | NYG | NFC East | 3-1 | 8.7-8.3 | 31% | 41% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| 18 | DAL | NFC East | 2-2 | 8.2-8.8 | 24% | 34% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| 19 | IND | AFC South | 2-2 | 8.3-8.7 | 17% | 35% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| 20 | CAR | NFC South | 2-2 | 7.9-9.1 | 36% | 41% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 21 | ATL | NFC South | 1-2 | 7.3-9.7 | 25% | 30% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 22 | HOU | AFC South | 0-4 | 6.9-10.1 | 8% | 19% | <1% | 2% | 1% |
| 23 | GB | NFC North | 2-2 | 7.9-9.1 | 5% | 25% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 24 | NO | NFC South | 1-2 | 7.4-9.6 | 30% | 33% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 25 | LV | AFC West | 3-1 | 8.2-8.8 | 10% | 32% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 26 | TB | NFC South | 0-4 | 5.2-11.8 | 10% | 11% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 27 | WAS | NFC East | 1-3 | 6.2-10.8 | 6% | 11% | <1% | 0% | <1% |
| 28 | LAC | AFC West | 0-4 | 4.9-12.1 | 1% | 5% | <1% | 0% | <1% |
| 29 | NYJ | AFC East | 1-3 | 5.3-11.7 | 2% | 7% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 30 | MIA | AFC East | 0-4 | 4.5-12.5 | 1% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 31 | ARI | NFC West | 1-3 | 5.6-11.4 | <1% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 32 | TEN | AFC South | 0-4 | 3.5-13.5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Division races
| Division | Title odds |
|---|
| AFC East | BUF 57%, NE 39%, NYJ 2%, MIA 1% |
| AFC North | BAL 41%, CLE 23%, CIN 19%, PIT 16% |
| AFC South | JAX 75%, IND 17%, HOU 8%, TEN 1% |
| AFC West | KC 60%, DEN 29%, LV 10%, LAC 1% |
| NFC East | PHI 39%, NYG 31%, DAL 24%, WAS 6% |
| NFC North | MIN 63%, CHI 20%, DET 12%, GB 5% |
| NFC South | CAR 36%, NO 30%, ATL 25%, TB 10% |
| NFC West | SF 46%, SEA 42%, LA 11%, ARI <1% |
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (10,000 replays of the 209 remaining regular-season games with live in-sim Elo, then the full seven-team bracket: Wild Card at the higher seed, the #1 seed off its bye, Super Bowl at a neutral site). Ties break on division / conference record, then at random — the real tiebreaker ladder is not modeled.
Betting-blind NFL Elo (margin-weighted updates, bye-week rest edge, off-season regression) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/nfl