NFL Elo Update
Run date 2026-10-26 · Week 7 · the power ratings, this week's games, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts.
🏆 Elo power ratings
| # | Team | Division | W-L | Pt diff | Elo | Δ pre |
|---|
| 1 | SEA Seattle Seahawks | NFC West | 4-3 | +43 | 1652 | -0 |
| 2 | BUF Buffalo Bills | AFC East | 5-1 | +26 | 1640 | +47 |
| 3 | MIN Minnesota Vikings | NFC North | 6-0 | +51 | 1627 | +84 |
| 4 | SF San Francisco 49ers | NFC West | 6-1 | +58 | 1615 | +64 |
| 5 | DEN Denver Broncos | AFC West | 5-2 | +3 | 1613 | +19 |
| 6 | JAX Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC South | 4-2 | +50 | 1597 | +36 |
| 7 | NE New England Patriots | AFC East | 4-3 | +17 | 1583 | -1 |
| 8 | CHI Chicago Bears | NFC North | 5-2 | +37 | 1574 | +49 |
| 9 | LA Los Angeles Rams | NFC West | 3-4 | +11 | 1569 | -27 |
| 10 | KC Kansas City Chiefs | AFC West | 5-1 | +40 | 1561 | +70 |
| 11 | DET Detroit Lions | NFC North | 4-2 | +19 | 1554 | +10 |
| 12 | PIT Pittsburgh Steelers | AFC North | 5-2 | +15 | 1554 | +46 |
| 13 | CIN Cincinnati Bengals | AFC North | 4-2 | +41 | 1554 | +78 |
| 14 | GB Green Bay Packers | NFC North | 4-3 | -1 | 1524 | +1 |
| 15 | BAL Baltimore Ravens | AFC North | 4-3 | +2 | 1516 | -20 |
| 16 | HOU Houston Texans | AFC South | 2-5 | -5 | 1510 | -82 |
| 17 | PHI Philadelphia Eagles | NFC East | 2-4 | -31 | 1483 | -70 |
| 18 | ATL Atlanta Falcons | NFC South | 3-4 | -2 | 1481 | +8 |
| 19 | TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC South | 2-5 | +11 | 1470 | -11 |
| 20 | CLE Cleveland Browns | AFC North | 5-2 | -13 | 1468 | +39 |
| 21 | NYG New York Giants | NFC East | 4-2-1 | +2 | 1464 | +35 |
| 22 | CAR Carolina Panthers | NFC South | 3-3 | -7 | 1449 | +11 |
| 23 | DAL Dallas Cowboys | NFC East | 2-4 | -8 | 1430 | -30 |
| 24 | IND Indianapolis Colts | AFC South | 2-5 | -26 | 1422 | -49 |
| 25 | NO New Orleans Saints | NFC South | 2-5 | -32 | 1412 | -32 |
| 26 | LAC Los Angeles Chargers | AFC West | 0-6 | -61 | 1410 | -113 |
| 27 | WAS Washington Commanders | NFC East | 1-4-1 | -40 | 1410 | -50 |
| 28 | LV Las Vegas Raiders | AFC West | 3-4 | -14 | 1404 | +37 |
| 29 | MIA Miami Dolphins | AFC East | 1-5 | -59 | 1388 | -71 |
| 30 | ARI Arizona Cardinals | NFC West | 2-5 | -66 | 1378 | -25 |
| 31 | NYJ New York Jets | AFC East | 2-5 | -13 | 1372 | -2 |
| 32 | TEN Tennessee Titans | AFC South | 1-6 | -48 | 1318 | -53 |
Divisions by average Elo
| # | Division | Avg | Preseason | In top 10 | Best | Worst |
|---|
| 1 | NFC North | 1570 | 1534 | 2 | MIN (1627) | GB (1524) |
| 2 | NFC West | 1553 | 1550 | 3 | SEA (1652) | ARI (1378) |
| 3 | AFC North | 1523 | 1487 | 0 | PIT (1554) | CLE (1468) |
| 4 | AFC West | 1497 | 1494 | 2 | DEN (1613) | LV (1404) |
| 5 | AFC East | 1496 | 1502 | 2 | BUF (1640) | NYJ (1372) |
| 6 | AFC South | 1461 | 1498 | 1 | JAX (1597) | TEN (1318) |
| 7 | NFC South | 1453 | 1459 | 0 | ATL (1481) | NO (1412) |
| 8 | NFC East | 1447 | 1475 | 0 | PHI (1483) | WAS (1410) |
📅 This week's games
Monday 2026-10-26 · 1 games
| ET | Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Elo line (home) | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| 20:15 | DAL @ PHI | DAL | 56% | -3.8 | 21.7–25.5 | 47.3 |
Win probability straight from Elo (home edge applied except at neutral sites, marked N; a side off its bye gets the rest edge). The Elo line is the model's own spread from the home side — it has never seen a market number. Expected score is that margin carved out of a matchup-specific total (each team's recent points for/against, shrunk to the league mean); read it as an average, not a literal final.
📈 Model performance
Rolling tracker
| Window | Correct | Accuracy | Log loss | ΔLL vs always-home |
|---|
| Last 7 days | 9/14 | 64.3% | 0.6894 | -0.0155 ± 0.1051 |
| Last 30 days | 48/73 | 65.8% | 0.6346 | -0.0605 ± 0.0386 |
| Season to date | 68/106 | 64.1% | 0.6451 | -0.0491 ± 0.0301 |
ΔLL is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast on the same games (p = 0.55, coin flip at neutral sites), ± one standard error; negative = beating the baseline. Picks lock the first morning a game appears on a slate.
Past week: 9/14 picks correct
| Date | Game | Pick | Elo line | Final (home first) | Log loss |
|---|
| ✅ | 2026-10-19 | WAS @ SF | SF (84%) | -10.9 | 23–17 | 0.17 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-22 | NE @ CHI | CHI (50%) | +0.3 | 30–24 | 0.69 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-25 | DEN @ ARI | DEN (65%) | +7.7 | 16–30 | 0.44 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-25 | SF @ ATL | SF (76%) | +6.4 | 29–20 | 1.41 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-25 | CIN @ BAL | BAL (52%) | -2.3 | 13–35 | 0.72 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-25 | TB @ CAR | CAR (70%) | -4.6 | 13–43 | 1.21 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-25 | GB @ DET | DET (58%) | -2.9 | 20–17 | 0.54 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-25 | NYG @ HOU | HOU (75%) | -5.7 | 21–27 | 1.38 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-25 | LA @ LV | LA (72%) | +3.4 | 21–35 | 0.33 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-25 | IND @ MIN | MIN (76%) | -10.3 | 16–10 | 0.28 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-25 | PIT vs. NO (N) | PIT (64%) | +5.1 | 10–16 | 0.45 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-25 | MIA @ NYJ | NYJ (62%) | -1.5 | 25–28 | 0.97 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-25 | KC @ SEA | SEA (55%) | -4.7 | 20–3 | 0.59 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-25 | CLE @ TEN | CLE (62%) | +3.6 | 24–27 | 0.47 |
🔮 Season forecasts
Super Bowl odds — all 32
| # | Team | Division | W-L | Proj W-L | Division | Playoffs | #1 seed | Conf. title | Super Bowl |
|---|
| 1 | MIN | NFC North | 6-0 | 13.1-3.9 | 70% | 95% | 50% | 26% | 14% |
| 2 | BUF | AFC East | 5-1 | 12.4-4.6 | 73% | 93% | 32% | 24% | 13% |
| 3 | SEA | NFC West | 4-3 | 11.0-6.0 | 27% | 78% | 6% | 18% | 10% |
| 4 | SF | NFC West | 6-1 | 12.4-4.6 | 69% | 93% | 28% | 21% | 10% |
| 5 | DEN | AFC West | 5-2 | 11.7-5.3 | 54% | 88% | 19% | 17% | 9% |
| 6 | JAX | AFC South | 4-2 | 11.3-5.7 | 85% | 89% | 10% | 14% | 7% |
| 7 | KC | AFC West | 5-1 | 11.1-5.9 | 44% | 83% | 16% | 11% | 5% |
| 8 | NE | AFC East | 4-3 | 10.1-6.9 | 26% | 72% | 6% | 9% | 5% |
| 9 | CHI | NFC North | 5-2 | 10.5-6.5 | 12% | 69% | 5% | 8% | 4% |
| 10 | CIN | AFC North | 4-2 | 10.9-6.1 | 40% | 76% | 8% | 9% | 4% |
| 11 | PIT | AFC North | 5-2 | 10.7-6.3 | 31% | 68% | 6% | 8% | 4% |
| 12 | DET | NFC North | 4-2 | 10.0-7.0 | 14% | 62% | 6% | 7% | 4% |
| 13 | LA | NFC West | 3-4 | 8.8-8.2 | 4% | 40% | <1% | 4% | 2% |
| 14 | GB | NFC North | 4-3 | 9.1-7.9 | 4% | 40% | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| 15 | BAL | AFC North | 4-3 | 8.9-8.1 | 9% | 38% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| 16 | NYG | NFC East | 4-2-1 | 8.4-7.6 | 52% | 55% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| 17 | CLE | AFC North | 5-2 | 9.7-7.3 | 20% | 52% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 18 | PHI | NFC East | 2-4 | 7.6-9.4 | 27% | 30% | <1% | 2% | 1% |
| 19 | ATL | NFC South | 3-4 | 7.7-9.3 | 35% | 38% | <1% | 2% | 1% |
| 20 | TB | NFC South | 2-5 | 6.8-10.2 | 24% | 26% | <1% | 2% | 1% |
| 21 | CAR | NFC South | 3-3 | 7.4-9.6 | 29% | 32% | <1% | 2% | 1% |
| 22 | HOU | AFC South | 2-5 | 7.5-9.5 | 10% | 22% | <1% | 2% | 1% |
| 23 | DAL | NFC East | 2-4 | 6.8-10.2 | 14% | 16% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 24 | NO | NFC South | 2-5 | 6.1-10.9 | 12% | 13% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 25 | WAS | NFC East | 1-4-1 | 5.5-10.5 | 7% | 9% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 26 | LV | AFC West | 3-4 | 6.6-10.4 | 1% | 7% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 27 | IND | AFC South | 2-5 | 6.2-10.8 | 4% | 7% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 28 | MIA | AFC East | 1-5 | 4.4-12.6 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 29 | LAC | AFC West | 0-6 | 4.0-13.0 | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 30 | TEN | AFC South | 1-6 | 3.6-13.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 31 | NYJ | AFC East | 2-5 | 5.1-11.9 | <1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 32 | ARI | NFC West | 2-5 | 5.7-11.3 | <1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Division races
| Division | Title odds |
|---|
| AFC East | BUF 73%, NE 26%, MIA 1%, NYJ <1% |
| AFC North | CIN 40%, PIT 31%, CLE 20%, BAL 9% |
| AFC South | JAX 85%, HOU 10%, IND 4%, TEN <1% |
| AFC West | DEN 54%, KC 44%, LV 1%, LAC <1% |
| NFC East | NYG 52%, PHI 27%, DAL 14%, WAS 7% |
| NFC North | MIN 70%, DET 14%, CHI 12%, GB 4% |
| NFC South | ATL 35%, CAR 29%, TB 24%, NO 12% |
| NFC West | SF 69%, SEA 27%, LA 4%, ARI <1% |
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (10,000 replays of the 166 remaining regular-season games with live in-sim Elo, then the full seven-team bracket: Wild Card at the higher seed, the #1 seed off its bye, Super Bowl at a neutral site). Ties break on division / conference record, then at random — the real tiebreaker ladder is not modeled.
Betting-blind NFL Elo (margin-weighted updates, bye-week rest edge, off-season regression) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/nfl